FanPost

Why NOT a QB?

Every presumption of picking a QB operates on the following assumptions:

1) The Falcons will win a bunch of games with Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith so won't be able to draft a QB in the top 5 in the next 2-3 seasons.
2) So the Falcons need to replace Matt Ryan...the QB who will win too many games for them to draft a QB.
3) Picking in the top-5 is the only way to get a championship QB.

I think the contradiction of points 1&2 speaks for itself, although there is the purgatory of going 8-8 (sorry 9-8)

Let's look at point #3. Do you need to pick in the top-5 to get to the Super Bowl?

We can obviously start with Tampa and Tom Brady. Or New England and Tom Brady. But basically if your argument is "Tom Brady" it's real an appeal to an outlier. Brady, as we know, was the 199th overall pick.

Here are the other Super Bowl QBs of the past decade. (Those acquired via trade are bolded.)

Patrick Mahomes was the 10th overall pick.
Jimmy Garappalo was the 62nd overall pick
Jared Goff was the 1st overall pick
Nick Foles was the 88th overall pick. (Carson Wentz was the 2nd overall pick)
Peyton Manning was the 1st overall pick (albeit years and years before winning the Super Bowl)
Cam Newton was the 1st overall pick
Russell Wilson was the 75th overall pick.
Joe Flacco was the 18th overall pick
Colin Kaepernick was the 36th overall pick
Eli Manning was the 1st overall pick.

Let's throw in Aaron Rodgers, the 24th overall pick.

We can throw Drew Brees (32nd pick) into the discussion.

And that's the last decade. For what it's worth, Ryan Tannehill was the 8th overall pick.

Some trends. There are three #1 overall picks who went to the Super Bowl. Only Eli Manning won it. Cam Newton and Jared Goff will be backups before too long.

Of the last ten MVPs, nine were QBs, including first overall picks Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. The only other top-5 pick to win the MVP was Matthew Thomas Ryan. Otherwise you have Brady, 10th pick Mahomes, 24th pick and Rodgers, 32nd pick Lamar Jackson.


So, it's pretty apparent that - Tom Brady notwithstanding - you need to spend a top-40 pick to get a good QB. But picking a QB in the top-5 doesn't mean you are headed to Super Bowl.

What makes picking the 4th best QB in the class enticing is that this is a really good QB class.

Look at the 2012 draft class: Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles. Luck was the #1 pick, but Wilson is the best QB in that class and he went in the second round.

Or look at the 2004 class. Eli Manning was the #1 pick, Philip Rivers was #4 and Ben Roethlisberger was #11. If you came out of that draft with Roethlisberger, I think you'd be OK.

Arthur Smith was the first guy to make Ryan Tannehill look worthy of the #8 pick. If you trust your offensive minded head coach, you can assume that they can get 2-3 good years from Matt Ryan and then either find a Tannehill type guy via trade, or find a guy in the middle of the first round.

Next year's QB class pretty much sucks. So drafting a QB in round 3 and seeing if you can develop him and IF YOU CAN'T then having one mediocre season with Some Dude under center is perfectly OK.

As long as you aren't drafting Jamarcus Russell.


<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>