NFL Week 10 game picks and predictions

Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season is here, and with it we’ve got a fresh slate of interesting games to get to. The week kicks off with a lopsided Thursday Night Football matchup between the Ravens and Dolphins, but thankfully picks up from there. I’ll be paying particular attention to Falcons at Cowboys, Browns at Patriots, and Seahawks at Packers, assuming Wilson and Rodgers end up playing.

I fared slightly better in Week 9 than the previous week—8-6—but my overall record is still a thoroughly mediocre 23-19. Let’s see if I can start improving that by taking some chances on a few more underdogs this week.

All odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. See the current odds here.

Thursday Night Football: Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)

The pick: Ravens (-400)

Spread: Ravens -7.5 | Over/Under: 46.5 | Moneyline: Ravens -400, Dolphins +300

The red-hot Ravens travel to take on the lowly Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. This one has the makings of a blowout, with Baltimore heavily favored to take care of business in Week 10. The Ravens have tended to play a lot of close games, but I don’t think this Jacoby Brissett-led Miami team is going to put up much of a fight.

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New York Jets (2-6)

The pick: Bills (-600)

Spread: Bills -11 | Over/Under: 47.5 | Moneyline: Bills -600, Jets +435

The Bills just laid an egg on the road against the Jaguars, but should have an opportunity to bounce back this week against another of the NFL’s worst in the Jets. New York has been spicier on offense with Mike White at quarterback, and it appears he’ll return this week. But the Bills have been a stifling defense, and the offense should get back on track against a depleted Jets squad.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) at Washington Football Team (2-6)

The pick: Bucs (-400)

Spread: Bucs -9 | Over/Under: 51 | Moneyline: Bucs -400, WFT +300

The Bucs are coming off a bye and get to face one of the NFL’s worst defenses in Week 10. While Tampa Bay’s receiving corps is still not fully healthy, Tom Brady has been dealing this year and the defense has been getting a little better each week. Meanwhile, the once-frisky Washington offense has been stifled over the past three games. I think the Bucs can handle the WFT.

Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)

The pick: Cowboys (-380)

Spread: Cowboys -8 | Over/Under: 54.5 | Moneyline: Cowboys -380, Falcons +290

I expected the Falcons to lose in New Orleans, but the team responded with one of their best efforts of the year to defeat their archrival. Things don’t get any easier in Week 10, as Atlanta travels to Dallas to take on one of the NFC’s most dominant squads. The Cowboys showed some weaknesses against the Broncos, as Dak Prescott wasn’t quite as sharp and the defense was gashed on the ground. Atlanta isn’t built to take advantage of that, so I think the Cowboys get back on track this week. However, I think it’ll be closer than the 8-point spread and could wind up being one of the best games of the week.

New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-2)

The pick: Saints (+125)

Spread: Titans -2.5 | Over/Under: 44 | Moneyline: Titans -145, Saints +125

The Titans have silenced all doubters with a dominant road win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9. New Orleans, meanwhile, lost a narrow one to Atlanta and looks to be trending down since Jameis Winston’s injury. I loathe picking the Saints, but this is exactly the type of game they win: as soon as you count them out, they get back on track. In honesty, Tennessee should be able to handle this underwhelming Saints offense, but I just feel like New Orleans pulls one out of the hat. I hope I’m wrong about this pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The pick: Colts (-490)

Spread: Colts -10 | Over/Under: 47.5 | Moneyline: Colts -490, Jaguars +360

Jacksonville showed some moxie by grinding out a defensive slugfest with the Bills last week, but I’m still not convinced they’re capable of doing that more than once in a blue moon. The Colts aren’t exactly a powerhouse opponent, but they’re certainly capable of putting up points: Indianapolis has scored 30+ in each of their past four games. I like the Colts in this one.

Detroit Lions (0-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The pick: Steelers (-335)

Spread: Steelers -8 | Over/Under: 42.5 | Moneyline: Steelers -335, Lions +260

Oh, Lions. It was just a few weeks ago that you were playing a competitive game against the Rams. Then you got steamrolled by the lowly Eagles and, well, here we are. The Steelers certainly aren’t an unmanageable opponent, but their defense and rushing attack are both legit. I don’t think Detroit goes 0-17, but I also don’t think they get that first win in Week 10.

Cleveland Browns (5-4) at New England Patriots (5-4)

The pick: Browns (+120)

Spread: Patriots -2.5 | Over/Under: 46 | Moneyline: Patriots -140, Browns +120

I’ve been performing poorly in the picks thus far, and I think my problem is that I need to pick more underdogs—especially in this crazy season. A good close game to do that is happening in New England, where the Patriots have had a run of success since a Week 6 loss to the Cowboys. The Browns are coming off a total dismantling of the Bengals, and are looking dangerous. This is going to be a close one, but I can see Cleveland re-igniting their playoff hopes in Week 10.

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

The pick: Chargers (-170)

Spread: Chargers -3 | Over/Under: 53 | Moneyline: Chargers -170, Vikings +150

This one could be a spicy matchup between two good offenses and two mediocre defenses. The Chargers are trying to put up back-to-back wins for the first time since Week 5, while the Vikings are trying to dig themselves out of a three-game hole to get back to relevance in the NFC. Knowing Minnesota, this will be a close game at the end, but I like Los Angeles to come away with the home victory here.

Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

The pick: Cardinals (-475)

Spread: Cardinals -10.5 | Over/Under: 44.5 | Moneyline: Cardinals -475, Panthers +350

The Panthers wisely elected to re-sign Cam Newton after Sam Darnold’s injury, and could possibly start to get going on offense as a result. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are fresh off a dominant victory over the 49ers with backup QB Colt McCoy at the helm. Kyler Murray should be back this week, but even if he isn’t, Arizona looks like one of the best teams in the NFL. I trust them to take care of business at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Denver Broncos (5-4)

The pick: Eagles (+120)

Spread: Broncos -2.5 | Over/Under: 45.5 | Moneyline: Broncos -140, Eagles +120

I’m not sure what to make of Denver’s upset victory over Dallas last week. The Broncos have looked like a mediocre team all year, but they took it to the Cowboys on the road. I’m also not sure what to make of the Eagles, who are one of the most maddeningly inconsistent teams in the league. In this relatively close matchup, I’m going to go with the underdogs as these two utterly unpredictable teams clash in Week 10.

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)

The pick: Packers (-170)

Spread: Packers -3 | Over/Under: 49 | Moneyline: Packers -170, Seahawks +150

The status of the starting quarterback on each of these teams is in question at the time of writing, but the expectation seems to be that we’ll see Russell Wilson versus Aaron Rodgers. If one or both of them doesn’t play, who knows what will happen. The Seahawks have been bad in Wilson’s absence, but they weren’t particularly good before he got hurt. Green Bay is the favorite here and for good reason. I think the Packers are the better team and come away with the win.

Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)

The pick: Chiefs (-140)

Spread: Chiefs -2.5 | Over/Under: 51.5 | Moneyline: Chiefs -140, Raiders +120

I don’t trust either of these teams right now, and that’s making it difficult to predict this game. The Chiefs seem to be trending up, while the Raiders are trending down. Neither has been particularly impressive, with Kansas City narrowly beating the Jordan Love Packers and Las Vegas getting trounced by the Giants. I think the Raiders are not that great, and that maybe the Chiefs could get back to being good at some point, so I’ll lean Kansas City here.

Monday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)

The pick: Rams (-190)

Spread: Rams -3.5 | Over/Under: 49 | Moneyline: Rams -190, 49ers +160

The Rams being favored by just 3.5 over a disappointing 49ers team seems a little disrespectful. Sure, Los Angeles didn’t hold up against the Titans, but Tennessee is a very good team. San Francisco has been really bad at home, and got dominated by Colt McCoy last week. This team just feels lifeless to me, so I’m going with the Rams in a bounce-back game.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.