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Falcons over/under: How many interceptions will Matt Ryan have?

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Will he keep them in single digits or is the curse of Dirk too much to overcome?

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Statistically speaking, Matt Ryan is going to give you about twice as many TDs as he will interceptions. Some years are better than others. His best performance - 2016 - saw him toss just 7 interceptions against 38 touchdowns. His worst was his rookie year with a 16:11 ratio.

In 2019, Ryan returned to double digit INTs with 14 total. He had 7, 12 (a very fluky 12), 7 and 14 over the last four seasons. Let’s take a look at how many he might toss this year.

The baseline

Going off the last 4 years, Ryan should be somewhere around 10 INTs overall. That said, his totals under Dirk Koetter have been 14, 17, 14, 14 since 2012. There’s something about Koetter’s offense that entices more turnovers from the franchise QB. That 14 number seems eerily consistent under Dirk. That said, Ryan is a very conscientious QB and will likely spend a good bit of time trying to eliminate the turnovers. We’ll place the total at 11.5.

The case for the over

Simply put: Ryan has never had less than 14 INTs playing with Dirk Koetter at OC. Even in his 2012 season with Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones and Roddy White all performing at high levels, those INTs still popped double digits. With several familiar faces gone in Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper, Ryan may be more prone to force the ball during the season.

The case for the under

Ryan is a much more mature QB than the first time Dirk was in town. While he did have 14 INTs last year, you could possibly contribute that to Dirk being unfamiliar with the offense the team ran and the players at his disposal. Another year together, with an improved offensive line, could be just the remedy for the turnover bug.

Your vote

What say you? Will Ryan go over the 11.5 predicted total or will he break the trend with Koetter this year?

Poll

Over/Under: Ryan 2020 INTs

This poll is closed

  • 27%
    He’ll toss 12 or more
    (75 votes)
  • 72%
    Give me the under
    (197 votes)
272 votes total Vote Now