Falcons over/under: how many touchdowns will Julio Jones get?

For whatever reason, Julio Jones has been consistently on the lower side of touchdown totals for the team over most of his career. His highest total - 10 touchdowns - game in 2012 (again, under Dirk Koetter) while he has hit 8 only three times (2011, 2015, 2018). Let’s set his baseline and see why he may or may not hit that total in 2020.

The baseline

As mentioned, Julio has only gone over 8 touchdowns 4 times in 9 seasons. His 57 total touchdowns gives him an average of just over 6 per season, the total he hit in 2019. However, his two lowest years - 2 in 2013 and 3 in 2017 - are the only two times he hasn’t hit at least 6 touchdowns and 2013 was the injury season. With all of that said, we’re going to set the baseline at 6.5.

The case for the over

Dirk Koetter wants nothing more than to pass the ball 50 times per game and you can be sure that Julio will benefit from it. The fact that Calvin Ridley was almost invisible for a good bit of 2019 under the new/old OC shows how single-minded his passing offense can become. The departure of Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper is also going to shift more of those red zone targets back to Julio, which should make hitting 7 or higher a relatively easy target this year.

The case for the under

He’s only eclipsed this number 4 times in 9 years. Plus, it’s not like the star receiver is getting healthier. He’s constantly battling injuries and has missed games in 2 of the last 4 seasons. While other red zone targets have departed, Calvin Ridley is still a touchdown machine and it seems unlikely that Julio will not continue to be double-covered throughout the year. The addition of Todd Gurley could also dampen the touchdown total as the team looks to take advantage of their new, shiny toy.

What’s your take?

Will the older, yet still elite receiver rack up the TDs in 2020 or will his numbers dip yet again? Let us know your thoughts and vote in our poll below.