Falcons over/under: What will the 2020 final record be?

Opinions on what the Atlanta Falcons might do in 2020 are all over the place. Some people expect another down season while others are calling them a dark horse for the NFC. After two straight 7-9 seasons, it’s easy to see why this is a tough team to project, but here at the Falcoholic, that difficulty won’t stop us from putting our thoughts to paper. We live to develop our future regrets.

The baseline

The point of an over/under is to determine a number that is right in the middle of where the projections lie. If we set it at 1, most of you will feel incredibly comfortable with the over (but never 100%). If we set it at 16, a few of you will finally applaud us for not being so negative.

That said, two straight 7-9 seasons makes this baseline easy. We’re going to set the baseline at 7.5 games for 2020. Consider it a mix of the past two seasons influenced by a smidgen of optimism.

The case for the over

Let’s be honest: the talent is definitely there, especially on the offense. Matt Ryan is still in his prime and arguably has played his best football since 2016. Julio Jones is still the best in the league and can run more than 5 yard slants. The addition of Todd Gurley should help while replacing Austin Hooper with Hayden Hurst is a bit of wild card. Two promising rookies on the offensive line from 2019 should be better this year, making the offensive line less of a weakness.

On the other side, the addition of Dante Fowler could be a big boost to the pass rush. This is also a unit that played much better in the second half of 2019 under now coordinator Raheem Morris. With a few more young players added into the mix, this could be a fun unit to watch, especially if Keanu Neal can return and play to form

The case for the under

Where the offense is concerned it comes down to one name: Dirk Koetter. He ran a boring and uninspired offense in 2019 and many fans are concerned we’re in for more of the same. He made Calvin Ridley invisible for most of the year and managed to promise a better running game and delivering one of the worst in the league. This man seemingly snatches defeat out of the jaws of victory.

As good as Raheem Morris may be, there are a lot of gaps on this defense. The departure of De’Vondre Campbell could be an issue in the middle. Saying goodbye to Desmond Trufant could mean a porous secondary, especially if guys like Kendall Sheffield don’t take a step forward. Putting too much faith in the Falcons defense has historically been a bad decision and this unit doesn’t exactly inspire complete confidence.

What’s your take?

So, where do you fall? Is this a team destined for greatness or for a new head coach? Sound off in our poll and in the comments below.