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Statistically Speaking: Breaking down Atlanta’s Week 7 numbers

Recapping this week in stats for the Falcons.

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The Atlanta Falcons have done it again. On Sunday, the Falcons lost in disastrous fashion, this time by accidentally scoring. The team is now 1-6 overall — and 1-1 since firing both general manager Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn. But, we are here to talk statistics and so we shall. This won’t be a deep dive into the analytical side of the numbers put up, but more of a broad outlook on weekly and seasonal stats so we can keep track of milestones and where this team stands with league leaders.

Without further ado, lets get started.

Based on win probability, the 1-6 Falcons should be 4-3

As mentioned above, the Falcons found another way to lose a football game. It’s the sixth loss this season, but the third in which the team had an extremely high probability of winning. Against the Lions, the Falcons had a win probability as high as 98.7%, per ESPN’s win probability model. It was Atlanta’s 3rd loss this season with a win probability of at least 98%, the most by a team in the last 20 seasons. The rest of the NFL has 4 such losses combined this season. It’s frustrating and only further proves that relieving both Quinn and Dimitroff of their duties wouldn’t fix this team.

Calvin Ridley secures a Falcons franchise record

He’s been a scoring machine this year, but Calvin Ridley just continues to impress. After scoring on Sunday, Ridley broke the Falcons’ franchise record for most receiving touchdowns in a players first three seasons. Since entering the league in 2018, Ridley currently has 23 receiving touchdowns. In 2020, Ridley already has 6 touchdowns and is on pace for a career-high 14 touchdowns. That number can and probably will change, but it’s a bright spot in 2020.

Todd Gurley joins elite company on scrimmage touchdowns list

Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Chuck Foreman and Jerry Rice. That’s who Todd Gurley has joined on the list for most scrimmage touchdowns in a player’s first 80 career games. Elite company no doubt, and Gurley actually slides in as third most through 80 career games with 76 scrimmage touchdowns. Say what you want about the Falcons, Gurley has taken a lot of heat but he’s currently on pace for 1,109 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.

League-wide Outlook

Even with a 1-6 record, Matt Ryan is one of the top passers in the NFL. Through the first seven weeks, Ryan has the most passing yards (2,181), second-most completions (190) and third-most first down throws (113). Ryan’s another player who is constantly being blamed even though he’s currently one of the better passers in the league.

So much for the Falcons limiting Todd Gurley’s touches this season. He currently has the second-most rushing attempts (122), sixth-most yards (485) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns (7). On the receiving end, Calvin Ridley is third in the league for touchdowns (6) and yards (615).