It was yet another defeat suffered by the Falcons, who now fall to 1-6 on the year, nearly matching their 1-7 record at the bye week last year (great decision not firing Dan Quinn at that point by the way).
How this team continues defying the odds and collapsing in spectacular fashion is both unbelievable and kind of impressive. Honestly, I’ll just let the graphic do the talking here:
The Falcons had a win probability as high as 98.7%, per ESPN's win probability model.— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 25, 2020
It was Atlanta's 3rd loss this season with a win probability of at least 98%, the most by a team in the last 20 seasons.
The rest of the NFL has 4 such losses combined this season. pic.twitter.com/EqJnds0et1
There is a lot of great content available here at the Falcoholic, and I encourage you to check it out if you want some in-depth analysis. This article will look at things strictly from a fantasy football perspective (that means looking at nothing other than purely statistics). Here is Atlanta’s fantasy stud and fantasy dud from Week 4’s victory against the Minnesota Vikings.
Fantasy Stud/Dud 2020 History:
Past Duds: Hayden Hurst, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan, Brian Hill
Fantasy Stud - Todd Gurley
Stat Line - 23 carries, 63 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 2 catches, 19 receiving yards: 20.2 standard league points; 22.2 PPR points
Another game, another fantasy stud honor for Todd Gurley — the fourth one in five weeks for the University of Georgia alum. Fantasy managers who rolled the dice on his health and involvement in Atlanta’s scheme are being handsomely rewarded.
Gurley has amassed more than 63 rushing yards only twice this season, and he hasn’t been much of a factor in the receiving game. However, the rushing touchdowns have turned him into an RB1 this season — another pair of scores today makes it seven in seven games. That ties him with Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry for most in the NFL.
Fantasy owners were nearly livid when Gurley tried to stop short of the end zone on Atlanta’s final drive, but were relieved when momentum carried him in for the score. It was a play which gave Detroit a chance to come back (and they did), but that doesn’t matter for fantasy purposes.
Given how high powered Atlanta’s offensive is and how much they love to run it in the red zone, Todd Gurley is matchup-proof. As long as he’s healthy, he’s a set and forget type of player in your starting lineup.
Younghoe Koo - 2/2 PAT: 2.0 standard league/PPR points
It’s not Koo’s fault that he finished outside the top 20 among kickers in Week 7 fantasy points — he nailed both of his attempts — but the lack of opportunity killed many fantasy managers who put him into their lineups.
It was an unlucky day for Koo regarding opportunities. He should have gotten a chance to kick in the second half when the Falcons had long drive stall out in the red zone, but Raheem Morris elected to go for it on 4th down and 5 (they didn’t get it), leaving the talented kicker on the sideline.
Atlanta was in position to kill clock and line Koo up for the game-winning field goal to end the game, but Gurley couldn’t stop his momentum from carrying him into the end zone on a final run play, and then the team had to go for two to make it a 6-point game following that score.
Every good kicker tied to a high-powered offense will have these types of games, where they just don’t get an opportunity to kick any field goals (Jason Myers in Seattle attempted two FGs through the first six weeks of the season). Stick with Koo moving forward as an elite option, and trust that this game was a mere anomaly.