It’s midseason, so you know what that means: Midseason projections! The offense is not having a great year but can we check their pace compared to past years?
Matt Ryan missed last week, projecting out to only 4,340 yards for 30 touchdowns, 15 picks, a 70.9% completion percentage, and a 98.7 quarterback rating. Ryan is still on-pace to outperform 2017, but comes up a little short of anything else. If we assume he plays the rest of the season at his current per game pace, removing his injured game, he should put up a respectable 4650 passing yards. If he played against the Seattle Seahawks and tossed around 300 yards, he’d be right around his MVP 2016 and Got-Sarkisian-Fired 2018.
The bigger problem with Ryan this year has been the interceptions, which projects dangerously close to a career high if he plays all the remaining games.
It’s easy to feel like Jones is having a down year, but he is projected to have 100 catches on 148 carries for 1,424 yards and 8 touchdowns. It’s about in-line with his 2016 and 2017, but short of those insane numbers in 2015 and 2018.
Ridley’s projections may be a bit off with Mohamed Sanu recently sent off. He’s on pace for 66 receptions on 102 targets for 886 yards and 8 touchdowns at 13.4 yards per catch. It’s about 60 more yards and 2 fewer touchdowns compared to his rookie season. He has a prime opportunity to battle back from his inconsistent start, but so far it appears that he will not have a breakout sophomore season.
Hooper is one of the few players, if not the only, to improve from last season. Hooper had a forgettable sophomore season where many, myself included, thought he needed competition. He blew up in 2018 and is only producing more this season. Hooper is in pace for 104 receptions on 124 targets for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns, good for 11.4 yards per catch. That’s a huge improvement over his 660 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2018. Hooper is getting ready to cash in as potentially one of the best tight ends in the NFL.
I don’t want to call Devonta Freeman cursed, but he’s on pace for 666 rushing yards (no joke), 3.4 yards per carry for 0 touchdowns, and 554 reception yards for 6 touchdowns. This will be his worst healthy season rushing since arguably his rookie year where he was an afterthought. It could be his second most productive season catching the football. Regardless, anyone watching Freeman this season will not be surprised by the pathetic YPC.
The Offensive Line
The line has been a constant problem, short of Ryan’s MVP season in 2016, and this year is no different. The line is projected to give up 42 sacks and 120 quarterback hits this season and only 3.7 yards per carry. After adding two free agents and two top picks on the offensive line, they are projected to match last year’s sacks, give up 12 more hits, and produce .8 fewer yards per carry.