clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Breaking down the Falcons’ slim playoff chances heading into Week 5

Spoiler: They’re not good.

Well, here we are. Week 5 is drawing near, and our Atlanta Falcons have a 1-3 record. For what little bit of optimism you may have remaining in your heart, have you wondered what the chances are that the Falcons will still somehow make the playoffs?

It’s not good.

All we can really do at this moment is review how 1-3 teams have faired in the past. Since 1990, 208 teams have started their season with a 1-3 record. Of those teams, only 30 teams (or 14.4%) have went on to make the playoffs.

The most recent team to make the playoffs after starting 1-3 was the 2018 Houston Texans squad, who finished the season 11-5, winning 9 games in a row at one point. They went on to lose in the Wild Card matchup, but nonetheless, they did make the playoffs.

Maybe making the playoffs isn’t your thing, and you’re a “go big or go home” person. Well, the last team to start 1-3 and go on to win the Super Bowl was the New England Patriots in 2001, who finished with a 11-5 record. Since 1990, they’re the only team to accomplish this feat, and it was essentially the beginning of their historic dynasty run.

Now understand, I’m not saying the Falcons will make the playoffs or even have a winning record. But as fans, most of us wait all year for football to return, and we already have a deflated feeling following week 4. It’s awful, but this team is way too talented to be 1-3, so anything is possible. For the less optimistic, but still curious readers, if the Falcons fall to 1-4 they’ll have only a 7% chance of making the playoffs. They’ll travel to take on the Houston Texans this weekend, which is no easy matchup.

It would take a historic momentum swing, but do you believe the Falcons can buck the trend, and defy their 14.4% odds of making the playoffs?