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We wrote earlier this offseason about Atlanta’s odd, ongoing excellence in even years versus odd years. There’s no rhyme or reason to why they should be, and likely no great cosmic alignment governing that excellence, but it’s worth noting that the Falcons since 1998 have been to two Super Bowls and made seven playoff appearances in even years, while they’ve made just two playoff appearances in odd years, in 2011 and 2017.
Just going back to 2008, we see the trend illustrated not just in final records, but actual performance. Per Austrian stats guy ViennaFalcon, here’s a look at the way the Falcons have just plain been better in even years.
#Falcons Offense average NFL rank in even years vs odd years since 2008:
— Vienna Falcons (@ViennaFalcons) July 30, 2018
P/G 7th vs 15th
Y/G 8th vs 11th
P/Dr 6th vs 11th
P/RZ 7th vs 19th
Giveaways 6th vs 15th
DVOA 8th vs 14th
Pass DVOA 6th vs 13th
NY/A 7th vs 12th
ANY/A 6th vs 13th
TD% 11th vs 17th
INT% 9th vs 15th
What gives, exactly? The team has been prone to bursts of offensive ineffectiveness in odd years, with 2009 (a Matt Ryan injury), 2011 (Mike Mularkey’s final, sluggish season), 2013 (Julio Jones’ injury), 2015 (Kyle Shanahan’s ill-fated first season), and 2017 (Steve Sarkisian’s up-and-down first year) all occurring in odd numbered seasons. Some of that is just poor luck, of course, but the Falcons are once again in a favorable position heading into an even year, with a stacked roster and a year of experience for Steve Sarkisian.
That’s a very good omen for this year, I think, but it’s also a curious note in this team’s long and curious history. Let’s hope this not the year where that even year dominance breaks down, especially because we already through that in 2014.