Yesterday, we spent some time talking about Matt Ryan’s career averages, and the surprisingly low Over/Under prop bets one site had come up with for his 2018 season. Today, we return to the topic, but this time with Julio Jones as our focus.
As I saw it, going over on Matt Ryan’s projected 24.5 touchdowns and 4,100 or so yards was a no-brainer, but things are more complex for #11. One of betonline.ag’s prop bets concerns Julio’s yardage total and sits at 1,400, a mark he has exceeded in each of the past four seasons and seems likely to exceed again unless Calvin Ridley bites off a huge chunk of his production. The other prop bet, though, is over/under on six receiving touchdowns, a number that many Falcons fans are surely going to be wary of after 2017.
Let’s start with the yardage number. The biggest reason to bet against Julio here is that the Falcons have so many mouths to feed, and with the addition of Calvin Ridley and (hopefully) improvement from Austin Hooper, it’s possible that Julio’s share of the opportunities decreases a bit. It’s also worth remembering that Julio’s targets dove from 203 in 2015 to 129 in 2016 and 148 in 2017, and he managed to exceed 1,400 yards in both of those seasons regardless. As long as he’s healthy, he should get there.
The touchdowns are trickier, but only slightly. Julio has scored at least six touchdowns in five of his seven seasons, and one of the seasons where he did not was 2011, when he played just five games and scored two touchdowns. Last year was the outlier, in other words, and expecting Julio to hit six touchdowns again this year is actually not that unreasonable. It will require the team to execute at a higher level and be more creative with his looks, however.
I’d take the over on both, but with more trepidation than I would have with Matt Ryan’s totals. How about you?