I wish there had been a prop bet available last year with odds on whether or not Takk McKinley would drop an F-bomb on live television after being drafted. As someone who is a fan, proponent, and prolific user of well-timed F-bombs, I might have taken that bet and won a little cold, hard cash.
There’s no prop for anyone the Falcons end up drafting this year throwing out a swear on camera that I know of, either. But the good folks at SportsBettingDime.com were kind enough to share all of their Falcons and NFC South-related odds for this year’s draft.
NFC South Draft Odds
Let’s get this one out of the way right off the bat.
Odds Julio Jones is involved in a draft day trade: 65/1
Those are not good odds. If you buy the whole hype about Julio’s big social media changes and bet $100 that the Falcons ship him off to some other team for some draft capital, you’re probably losing $100. But if the Falcons did make the very bad decision to trade him for some unfathomable reason, you’d walk away with $6,500, which would ease the pain of losing arguably the best receiver in the game a bit.
Odds the NFC South teams trade up in round 1
It seems the oddsmakers may have heard of our own Trader Thomas, because those are pretty conservative odds on the Falcons. Here’s how it breaks down if you bet on each of these lines.
Panthers: Bet $100, win $125
Falcons: Bet $100, win $250
Saints: Bet $100, win $400
Buccaneers: Bet $100, win $900. Maybe they’ll trade up for a kicker, and then you’ll get to laugh at the Bucs and you’ll have $900 extra in your pocket. That’s a win-win situation.
Odds the NFC South teams trade down in round 1
Buccaneers: Trade down (1/1).
Saints: Trade down (5/3).
Falcons: Trade down (2/1).
Panthers: Trade down (3/1).
Here’s what you can expect if you wager on any of these:
Buccaneers: Even money if they trade down.
Saints: Bet $100, win $167, approximately.
Falcons: Bet $100, win $200.
Panthers: Bet $100, win $300.
Odds NFC South teams select the following positions with first-round pick
Not surprising that the odds favor a defensive lineman coming off the board to Atlanta, and by a wide margin. Even an offensive lineman, which wouldn’t be a terrible decision in the first, would net you $400 if you bet $100 and the Falcons went for one.
Even money on a tight end, which is interesting, since the Saints currently have three on the roster. But Benjamin Watson is 37 years old, which is younger than old-ass Drew Brees, but still pretty ancient in NFL terms. Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui aren’t long-term answers at the position, either. If the Saints go with any other position in the first, you stand to make some easy money.
Maybe Cam Newton can complete more than 52.9 percent of his passes if the Panthers land him a decent receiver in the first, but this breakdown tells us that oddsmakers aren’t sure which way the team will go.
Why is kicker specifically not on this list? Maybe because the Bucs would never trade up in the FIRST round to take a kicker. They’ll save that for the second round. Anyway, the odds favor a defensive back for Tampa, but if they go with running back or offensive line, you stand to win $600 on a $100 wager.
Odds the Panthers draft the following WRs
Courtland Sutton: 7/1
DJ Moore: 8/1
James Washington: 8/1
Calvin Ridley: 9/1
DJ Chark: 10/1
Christian Kirk: 12/1
Michael Gallup: 12/1
Anthony Miller: 14/1
DaeSean Hamilton: 14/1
If the Panthers DO go wide receiver in the first, they’ve got plenty of guys to choose from. We’ll see if it works out better for them than the last time they took a receiver in the first. That was Kelvin Benjamin, who was traded to the Bills from the Panthers before the deadline last season. It’s a large field, which skews the odds, because it’s a lot harder to land on the right one. If you did happen to predict this, you’d make an impressive return on your investment no matter who the pick ends up being.
Odds to be the Buccaneers #1 pick
Derwin James: 5/2
Minkah Fitzpatrick: 5/1
Saquon Barkley: 13/2
Quenton Nelson: 13/2
Denzel Ward: 7/1
Josh Jackson: 15/1
Will the Bucs snag Derwin James with the seventh overall pick? The odds favor it. Get this one right and your $100 bet will pull in $250 in winnings.
If I find any sportsbooks offering prop bets on Falcons’ draftees throwing around draft day swears on television, I’ll let you know.