Falcons Over/Under: how many touchdowns will Mohamed Sanu get?

eMohamed Sanu may be a divisive figure among Falcons fans, but he’s clearly respected by his teammates and coaches. His first year in Atlanta was a mostly successful one, and with a full year under his belt, it’s reasonable to expect he may do even more in this offense.

The Average

Sanu hasn’t exactly been a touchdown machine since coming into the NFL. His numbers here are rather ... interesting.

2016 - 4 touchdowns

2015 - 0 touchdowns

2014 - 5 touchdowns

2013 - 2 touchdowns

2012 - 4 touchdowns

That’s an average of 3 touchdowns per season.

Our target number

Call it hopeful optimism or a belief in this offense, but we’re going to set the target number to 4.5 touchdowns.

Why he’ll go under

Simple put - he’s only ever gone over 4 touchdowns once in his career. His four touchdowns last year came on an offense that was one of the top 10 all time, so if the entire offense regresses (which is statistically likely), it stands to reason that his numbers will as well. Not to mention he’s competing with guys like Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Taylor Gabriel, Tevin Coleman and Austin Hooper for those touchdowns. There’s only so many to go around.

Why he’ll go over

Matt Ryan has shown he trusts Sanu. He had remarkably steady hands in 2016, which bodes well for him receiving more red zone targets. With Julio eating up double-teams, Sanu will likely see more single-coverage in the red zone as well.

Your take