What’s the over/under on Matt Ryan’s yardage?

Matt Ryan enjoyed a magical season for the Falcons in 2016, and throughout his career he’s been above-average at worst. That incredible, historic performance set career highs in every category for Ryan: 69.9% completion percentage, 4,944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, and a downright superhuman 117.1 passer rating. He also had some signature moments, including a 500-yard game against the Carolina Panthers.

Going into 2017, Ryan is in an interesting position. Most believe there will be at least some regression to the mean (which is a reasonable expectation), but others think either a) Ryan actually isn’t good and will revert to his 2015 form, or b) Ryan has “hit his stride”, so to speak, and will continue playing at this elite level.

Let’s see where we all stand on this issue. For this exercise, we’ll base it off our opinions on how many yards Ryan will throw for in the 2017 regular season. First, some informative stats.

The Numbers

Here are the number of yards Ryan has thrown for in each of his nine seasons in the NFL.

2008 (rookie): 3,440
2009: 2,916
2010: 3,705
2011: 4,177
2012: 4,719
2013: 4,515
2014: 4,694
2015: 4,591
2016: 4,944

AVERAGE: 4,189

The Line

As I think putting the line at only 4,200 would be a little too easy, let’s bump it up to 4,600 yards. That would be the fourth-best season of his career, behind 2016, 2012, and 2014. It would also be a regression of over 300 yards from last year, which is pretty large. A 4,600-yard season is still very good, particularly if Ryan could pair it with throwing less than 10 INTs once again.

I’m going to be bullish on Ryan and take the OVER. I think he’ll get between 4,600-4,800 yards in 2017, and look similar to last year. He may not ever again be as historically efficient as he was in 2016, but I think Ryan has turned a page. This is the prime of his career, and I think he might cement himself as an elite QB with another top-5 season.

Where do you stand? Would you take the over or the under here?