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What’s the over/under on Vic Beasley’s 2017 sack total?

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Go high, or go low?

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

His rookie year, Vic Beasley put up under five sacks. His second season, he put up 15.5. Figuring out where he’ll land in 2017, in his third NFL season, is a wee bit tricky because of that variability and Beasley’s sky-high ceiling.

So where do we go from here?

The Average

2015: 4.0 sacks

2016: 15.5 sacks

Our target number

We’d put the over/under at 10 sacks for Beasley. This isn’t because we believe Beasley is going to regress—and in fact, I think he’ll be an improved player—but because sack totals do fluctuate from year to year. Beasley was able to feast on some weak tackles last year, and with Takk aboard and an improved defense around him, others should pick up more sacks, potentially cutting into his totals.

I do think he’ll likely go over, but honestly, expecting another 15.5 sack in 2017 is probably unfair, even if I think he has more seasons like that in his future. No matter how many sacks he winds up with, Beasley is a mortal lock to lead the team in sacks and

Would you go over or under?