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538: Falcons have 61% chance to beat Packers, 25% chance to win Super Bowl

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You can't crunch the numbers on the Atlanta Falcons. They are too good.

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog may be most famous for expertly predicting the 2012 election, and... well, not nearly as accurately predicting the 2016 election. Regardless, Silver's numbers were eventually some of the most correct, but October 30th's "The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does" didn't age particularly well.

What does the ESPN-owned blog suggest for the next few weeks of the NFL?

The Falcons have a 61% chance of beating the Green Bay Packers. That's pretty cool because they gave the Falcons a 62% chance of beating the Seattle Seahawks. They have a 62.5% success rate (I can do stats too!) this postseason, missing on Kansas City and Dallas last night, and the Raiders last week.

Anything else interesting?

The Falcons have a 25% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That number would, of course, go up if they win on Sunday. New England is favored with a 70% chance at a win. Meaning if Nate Silver is right, the Falcons will play the Patriots while President Clinton watches from a private suite.

FiveThirtyEight uses a model that runs tons of simulations that suggest the Falcons are narrowly better than the Steelers and Packers, but far behind the Patriots.