Falcons will probably not get off to as hot of a start in 2016

Last year’s hot start was a lot of fun. The Falcons jumped out to a 5-0 record out of the gate, but when things fell apart, they really fell apart. After starting 6-1, they went on a six-game skid, finishing 8-8. Well, don’t expect as hot of a start for the Falcons this season.

Chase Stuart over at FiveThirtyEight broke down the teams that have the most front-loaded (i.e., the easiest opponents first) and back-loaded schedules. He used point spreads for each team to make these determinations, and his results suggest that the Falcons’ easier games come later on their schedule.

Stuart’s numbers project the Falcons to have an unweighted strength of schedule of +0.5, which is one of the higher numbers for any team in the league. The hardest schedule is San Francisco’s at +0.9. The Jets have a +0.7, and the Colts, Cowboys and Rams all have +0.6.

According to Stuart, the Falcons’ schedule weighted by the order played — with greater weight assigned to opponents as the end of the season nears -- averages out at +0.2. Their back-loaded schedule factor is a -0.3.

You can check out all of the rankings here, but don’t count on the Falcons starting 2016 in the same way they started last season.