clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Projecting the Falcons 2016 offense: Matt Ryan

What might Ryan's 9th season in the league look like? We take a guess.

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

With the way the 2015 season ended, it wouldn't be surprising if you thought that Matt Ryan had one of his worst statistical seasons ever. Surprisingly, he's been freakishly consistent statistically over the past several years. His performance every year puts him in the top-10 in a number of categories, and looking ahead to 2016, there's no reason to expect any different.

2012-2014

In the years where the offense finally went "pass first", Ryan's numbers swelled when compared to the days when Michael Turner was the feature of the offense. Here's what his seasons statistics looked like in those years:

Year Completions Attempts Comp % Yards Avg TD INT QB Rating
2012 422 615 68.6 4,719 7.67 32 14 99.1
2013 439 651 67.4 4,515 6.94 26 17 89.6
2014 415 628 66.1 4,694 7.48 28 14 93.9


As you can see, Ryan averaged a little over 4600 yards and about 28 TDs per season in that stretch. Those are very respectable numbers and that includes a season with a hobbled Roddy and absent Julio (2013) and another season without Tony G (2014).

2015

Why break out 2015 from the other years? Because this was the first year in a brand new offense for Ryan, and the numbers should take that into consideration. From 2008 to 2012, Ryan was playing in mostly the same offense, minus some variations that took place once Dirk Koetter came into town. The 2015 season represented a complete shift in their offensive identity. Here's what his year looked like:

Year Completions Attempts Comp % Yards Avg TD Int QB Rating
2015 407 614 66.3 4,591 7.48 21 16 89.0

Even with the change in offense, Ryan's numbers were well in-line with previous seasons, with the exception of a slightly raised number of interceptions and a drop in touchdowns. The drop in touchdowns was partly due to the emergence of Devonta Freeman, though it also speaks to the red zone struggles the team had for most of the year.

Projection

Assuming that Ryan feels more comfortable in the offense, his decision making should improve, leading to a reduction in interceptions. If Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu can contribute in the red zone, along with Tevin Coleman, the struggles with getting touchdowns should get better. The combination of these factors should lead to an improved season for the Falcons QB. Here's how I see it playing out:

Year Completions Attempts Comp % Yards Avg TD Int QB Rating
2016 415 620 66.9 4,650 7.5 30 13 93.5

What are your thoughts?