The Atlanta Falcons have had a handful of truly great defenses in their long history, but they haven’t had one for a long while now. We’re all hopeful that will change with Dan Quinn at the helm and some truly promising young defenders, but it’s fair to say they’re not there yet.
As we know from recent history, however, you can be a good team with a mediocre defense...if you can make up for that with a quality offense and gobs of turnovers. The 2012 Falcons were a good example of a team that got by without an elite defense because they were able to limit scoring (something the 2016 Falcons haven’t been able to do) and earn plenty of takeaways.
If you look at the 2012 team, you’ll notice that while they were just 24th in yards allowed in the NFL, they were 5th in points allowed. That was partly due to the infamous bend-don’t-break nature of the defense, and partly due to a knack for coming up with timely turnovers, as the Falcons finished +13 on the year with 31 TOs versus just 18 on their part.
The 2016 Falcons have inarguably fared worse on defense across the board than that team, but they’ve been buoyed by the league’s most effective offense, and they have a +8 turnover ratio fueled by just 10 turnovers (very impressive) and 18 takeaways. It goes without saying that if you can avoid turning the ball over and snag a few fumbles and interceptions, you’re probably going to fare pretty well overall.
Of course, the Falcons can’t afford to fall off the pace on offense if they want to keep winning, especially against some of the stronger offensive teams they’re likely to face if/when they make it to the playoffs. If they can produce at a reasonably high level and put the ball in the hands of the offense a couple of times per game instead of allowing depressing scores, then hell, we’re there.
We have no idea if this version of the Falcons can push as far into the postseason as that terrific 2012 team—my gut and their struggles on defense overall suggest they cannot—but they can probably exceed most expectations by continuing to win the turnover battle. Oh, and scoring 30-plus points per week. That also helps.