The only numbers you need to know to explain the Falcons' seven point underdog status are these: 14-0 and 7-0. Or, if you'd prefer (and you don't), 38-0.
Yes, Atlanta is .500 versus undefeated Carolina, and the last time these two teams met it was an unmitigated disaster for the Falcons. In the week since, of course, Atlanta has gotten a confidence-boosting win and Carolina nearly choked up a massive lead to the Giants, and your Falcons are at home. That tilts the scales ever so slightly in our favorite team's favor, but if we're being honest, it's unlikely the Falcons will win.
It is likely the game will be closer--Vegas is being reasonable by not making the Falcons 38 point underdogs, at least--and even a strong performance against Carolina will give this team something to build on. In the end, though, I anticipate we'll see the same result as last time, even if the score is closer.
How about you?