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The Atlanta Falcons Offense Is On Pace For Big Numbers

Your dear editor-in-chief is not good at math, but here we go.

Kevin C. Cox

After a record game in the Georgia Dome on Thursday night, I thought I'd take a quick look at how the Falcons are looking for the rest of the season. Normally I'd wait until we were four games in, but with such a preposterous effort in two of the first three games of the season, I thought we'd look at how some of our favorite Falcons might stack up.

I've rounded up and down where applicable, and there may be some iffy math in here. The important thing is that the Falcons are on pace to do some fairly spectacular things this season.

Naturally, none of these numbers will probably wind up particularly close, but it gives you an idea of the potential of this offense has if it can just keep the good times rolling going forward.


QB Matt Ryan

Current: 76/111, 68.5%, 956 yards,  8.7 YPA, 7 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
Projected:  329/481, 68.3%, 5,146 yards, 8.7 YPA, 37 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

In case you're wondering, this would be Ryan's best season by a very wide margin.

RB Steven Jackson

Current: 37 attempts, 152 yards, 4.1 YPC, 1 touchdown, 2 receptions, 7 yards
Projected: 197 carries, 810 yards, 4.1 YPC, 5 touchdowns, 11 receptions, 37 yards

This seems, based on the way Jackson has been running and how the Falcons are choosing to use him, as a pretty accurate representation of his potential yardage. He'll likely score more touchdowns, however.

Freeman's getting limited carries and I have no idea what to make of Quizz's usage going forward, so let's just look at the video game numbers Antone Smith might put up.

RB Antone Smith

Current: 6 carries, 57 yards, 9.5 YPC, 1 touchdown, 3 receptions, 73 yards, 1 receiving touchdown
Projected: 32 carries, 304 yards, 9.5 YPC, 5 touchdowns, 16 receptions, 389 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs

If this projection held up, Antone would account for almost 700 yards and 10 TDs on just 48 touches. Given the way Antone's career has gone to this point, I would not be shocked to see it happen.

WR Julio Jones

Current: 23 catches, 365 yards, 15.9 YPR, 3 touchdowns
Projected: 123 catches, 1,947 yards, 15.9 YPR, 16 touchdowns

Holy hell.

WR Roddy White

Current: 10 catches, 114 yards, 11.4 YPR, 1 touchdown
Projected: 75 catches, 855 yards, 11.4 YPR, 5 touchdowns

This would be a down year for Roddy, and he's clearly capable of better. With Julio Jones soaking up targets and White's health a bit of a question mark going forward, though, this isn't unreasonable. He'd still be incredibly valuable to a high-volume passing attack.

WR Harry Douglas

Current: 12 catches, 121 yards, 10.1 YPR, 1 touchdown
Projected: 64 catches, 645 yards, 10.1 YPR, 5 touchdowns

That would be Douglas's career high for touchdowns, but obviously not receptions. Those numbers would seem to line up well with the possession-type numbers he's put up thus far, especially since most of his receptions are right on the sideline or over the middle where a defender quickly meets him.

WR Devin Hester

Current: 7 catches, 126 yards, 18.0 YPR, 1 carry, 20 yards, 1 touchdown
Projected: 37 catches, 672 yards, 18.0 YPR, 5 carries, 107 yards, 5 touchdowns

The touchdown numbers seem unlikely to work out like this, but given Hester's speed and elusiveness in the open field, the rest of the line looks potentially attainable.

TE Levine Toilolo

Current: 7 catches, 57 yards, 8.1 YPR, 1 touchdown
Projected: 37 catches, 304 yards, 8.1 YPR, 5 touchdowns

I still think Toilolo will be a bigger red zone target, and I also think the Falcons will wrap him into the passing game a bit more as the season wears on. I'm projecting closer to 450-500 yards and 8 touchdowns, myself, but certainly given the modest expectations for Toilolo this line probably wouldn't make anyone angry.

We'll tackle the defense in earnest after the fourth game against the Minnesota Vikings. What do you think of these possibilities?