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Draft Success Information: Variable Workbook

Let's try another dynamic workbook where you get to select the variables and find something interesting.

By mseward1
Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Success in the draft is obviously important. However, how teams achieve success is a constant debate - one I see throughout the comments fairly often. Actually, several months back, I responded to an argument about New England and their approach to stock-piling picks. Depending on how you look at the information, it's been a pretty successful strategy for them. Since 2000, they have a moderate hit rate, but produce more All Pro and Pro Bowl honors than any other teams by a wide margin (60 to the next closest 53). They also accomplished this while averaging the second-worst pick position over the period.

Anyways, I decided to expand the analysis to make some variable entry fields so you can adjust the:

  • Year Low/High to define the drafts you wish to analyze,
  • Round Low/High so you can isolate the draft selections, and
  • Position Group so you can compare what areas a team may excel.
Also, I will allow you to define what constitutes a draft success, or "hit", with some limited entries. Since each position obviously has different applicable stats, I wanted to take a more generic approach. You can select the minimum:

  • Years in the NFL
  • Number of Games Started
  • Years as the Primary Starter
  • Average CarAV Rating (ProFootballReference.com)
If you're unfamiliar with PFR ratings, I'll try to simplify it. Any average over 8 is rare - only 75 of the 5,800 or so prospects achieved it. A majority of the good to even great players will fall between 5 and 8 (550 of the draftees). Another 1,000 or so fall in between 3.0 and 5 and will contain most of your reliable players, but no one breaking the records. Below that point, it's slim pickin'. You can find some other reliable players, but typically rotational guys or backups. Again, this is all rough...

Well, have at it. Play analyst! Share what you find and how you would consider a player to be a "hit". Are there any other generic filters you can think of that I should add? I would like to steer away from position specific things like passing yards, sacks, and interceptions. At some point, I can layer on some smart-metrics to do just that. Trying to keep it simple, for now.

Let me know what you think and if you like this sort of workbook. Trying something new, here!

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