Has the Super Bowl Window Already Closed on Matt Ryan and the Falcons?

This article was written by reader atlien698.

On the surface, this question seems rather preposterous, right? After all, Matt Ryan is only 28 and, barring serious injury, is not even at the halfway point of his career. Furthermore, after a dismal 2013 campaign, the Falcons should get an infusion of high-quality talent in the 2014 NFL draft and the team has made positive waves with recent changes to the front office and coaching staff. Yet, history suggests that, if Ryan were going to lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl victory, it would have already happened by now.

How’s that, you ask? Well, let me explain. I was interested in investigating the number of QBs who led their original teams – i.e., the teams that drafted the QBs – to a Super Bowl victory and the number of seasons it took to accomplish that feat. Of course, this is a very select group, especially considering that, as of Sunday, only 31 different QBs have won the 48 Super Bowls ever played. And of those 31 QBs, only 20 of them won a Super Bowl with their original team. Given this small number, it would be very easy for one to conclude that the odds are stacked against Ryan to win a SB. However, the same could be said for every other QB who has played or ever will play in the NFL. As such, the purpose of this investigation is to get a sense of how long (on average) it took these QBs to lead their teams to a SB victory and whether there’s still time for the Falcons with Ryan at the helm.

The table below presents data on 18 of the 20 QBs who led their original teams to Super Bowl victories.[1]

QBs whose names appear in italics won multiple Super Bowls for their original team. The results presented above are based on data obtained from www.profootballreference.com and www.docsports.com.

Based on the data above, the QBs who led their original teams to Super Bowl victories did so, on average, in about 5.17 years. Matt Ryan just finished his sixth season with the Falcons. Thus, based on a simple average of this select group of QBs, we are already past the average number of seasons for Ryan to win the Super Bowl with the Falcons, if it were going to happen at all. However, this doesn’t mean we’re hopeless, just yet. Let’s look a little deeper.

As Ryan embarks on his seventh season as Falcons signal-caller, it is worth noting that there is a precedent for QBs winning with their original teams later in their careers. Four of the 18 QBs listed above – Stabler (7), Simms (8), Elway (15) and P. Manning (9) – have done so. Elway is the clear outlier[3] here, going 15 seasons before winning his first SB for the Broncos. However, while this adds a ray of hope for Falcons (and Ryan) fans, it should be noted that Elway led Denver to the SB after his fourth season and had taken the Broncos to three SBs by the end of his seventh season.

Oh, and there’s one more thing about these four QBs who won later in their careers. Ken Stabler is the only one to have won the SB with the same coach who drafted him (in this case, John Madden). To put this in perspective, if the coach-QB combo of Mike Smith (who recently signed an extension through 2016) and Matt Ryan do not win the SB next season (Year 7), them doing so in a subsequent year would be unprecedented in the Super Bowl era.

So, there’s that.

Despite it all, this is merely the data talking. It is really not my aim to bash Ryan or to focus on why he has not yet delivered a Lombardi to Atlanta. Nor is it really the intent to compare/contrast the circumstances facing each of these QBs vis-à-vis Ryan’s situation with the Falcons. But what it does suggest is that, if it is going to happen for Ryan and the Falcons, it needs to happen soon. This is especially the case, considering that the young crop of QBs including Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III, is bound to yield at least one SB-winner in the very near future.

So, what say you, Falcoholics? Are you optimistic that Ryan will win a SB for the Falcons before it’s all over? If so, what about the direction of the team makes you feel that way? Are you simply an eternal optimist like this guy à http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM?

Or do you think the window is already shut? Do you think we squandered the opportunities by losing the NFC Championship at home last year? Do you think the pairing of Smitty-Ryan can get it done or no?

Discuss!

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