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As a follow-up to my Third Quarter Meltdown article, I've been collecting previous year play-by-play information. Finally, I have 2012 completed. I'll continue to go back further in time, but for now, I compiled the down-and-distance information for our third downs on both sides of the ball. I'm going Tarantino style, starting with third down then jumping back to first and second down the road.
Since the play count at specific distances could be low, I think having both 2012 and 2013 will provide a better look at possible team strengths or weaknesses. Fun fact: 'strengths' is the longest one-syllable and longest one-vowel word in English. That has nothing to do with football...I'm just going to post the charts and raw information so you can analyze.
I pulled the NFL average conversion by distance from an ESPN study done in 2008. I couldn't find a more updated resource, but conversion rates have largely been unchanged since then. I would assume that the success by distance is also largely unchanged.
The Falcons finished the season ranked 5th on offense, with a third down conversions rate at 43%, down from 46% in 2012. They struggled without Roddy White healthy, converting roughly 40% of their attempts. After week 12, once he looked like himself again, that number jumped above 48%.
The defense finished dead last, allowing their opponents to convert over 46% of their attempts. That's an increase from 40% in 2012, which had the Falcons ranked 26th. Neither year was particularly special, really. The conversion rate didn't improve at the season progressed, but that could largely be due to injuries. They started the first half of the season allowing just over 45% success, and then ended the back half allowing over 48%.
Offense
| 2012 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10+ |
| Successful | 12 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 14 |
| Total | 28 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 13 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 50 |
| Conversion | 43% | 54% | 55% | 65% | 55% | 62% | 48% | 50% | 13% | 28% |
| NFL | 67% | 52% | 49% | 47% | 42% | 41% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 20% |
| 2013 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10+ |
| Successful | 17 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| Total | 30 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 54 |
| Conversion | 60% | 53% | 71% | 50% | 35% | 57% | 45% | 38% | 47% | 21% |
| NFL | 67% | 52% | 49% | 47% | 42% | 41% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 20% |
Defense
| 2012 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10+ |
| Successful | 15 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Total | 24 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 54 |
| Conversion | 63% | 44% | 50% | 73% | 36% | 38% | 25% | 40% | 50% | 22% |
| NFL | 67% | 52% | 49% | 47% | 42% | 41% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 20% |
| 2013 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10+ |
| Successful | 17 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| Total | 30 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 54 |
| Conversion | 57% | 56% | 78% | 56% | 50% | 53% | 35% | 56% | 36% | 24% |
| NFL | 67% | 52% | 49% | 47% | 42% | 41% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 20% |
So have at it! Feel free to request any details, and I'll do my best to respond.