A Different Look at "Fan Equity"

In the latest installment of the tired perpetuation of the "Atlanta is a bad sports town" idea, two professors from Emory University, Mike Lewis and Manish Tripathi, shared the results of a study last week in which they determined that Falcons fans have the least "fan equity" of every team in the league, except for the Oakland Raiders.

The first question one must ask is, what exactly is fan equity? According to the authors of the study, it is a numerical representation of how passionate and invested a fan base is in their chosen team. Which leads us to the second question: can one truly, and accurately, measure something so subjective as fan loyalty?

The two professors, fans of the Redskins and the Steelers, respectively--so there shouldn't be any obvious inherent bias against the Falcons--used a statistical model involving box office revenue, market population and median income, and stadium capacity, as well as a team's record of success over the last five seasons. The purpose of the statistical model is to project revenues based on recent success, and teams were ranked according to how the projections aligned with their actual revenues. If you're going to try to measure fan enthusiasm, box office revenue is a good place to start, but a strong argument can be made that the study is too focused on revenues without enough acknowledgement of variables like ticket pricing, and no adjustment for the fans who aren't able to attend games by factoring in television data, including blackouts. The narrow nature of the data incorporated skews the results in favor of teams whose ticket prices are higher. Let's take a look at the top ten teams according to Lewis and Tripathi's data, compared to their respective rankings for ticket prices.

Rank	Team	2012 Revenue	Avg. 2012 Ticket Price	Ticket Cost Rank
1	Dallas Cowboys	$539 million	$110.20	5
2	New England Patriots	$408 million	$117.84	2
3	New York Jets	$321 million	$117.94	1
4	New Orleans Saints	$276 million	$74.99*	15
5	New York Giants	$338 million	$111.69	3
6	Indianapolis Colts	$276 million	$85.34	7
7	Chicago Bears	$298 million	$110.91	4
8	Baltimore Ravens	$292 million	$91.92	6
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	$266 million	$74.32*	17
10	Tennessee Titans	$270 million	$64.61*	27

Revenue data from Forbes.com, ticket price data from FanCostExperience.com

* average price below NFL average

And, the data for the bottom ten teams:

Rank	Team	2012 Revenue	Avg. 2012 Ticket Price	Ticket Cost Rank
23	Seattle Seahawks	$270 million	$67.26*	25
24	Buffalo Bills	$256 million	$58.36*	31
25	Miami Dolphins	$268 million	$71.14*	18
26	San Francisco 49ers	$255 million	$83.54	9
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	$240 million	$59.54*	30
28	Detroit Lions	$248 million	$67.60*	24
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	$267 million	$69.72*	19
30	Arizona Cardinals	$253 million	$68.00*	22
31	Atlanta Falcons	$252 million	$76.78*	16
32	Oakland Raiders	$229 million	$62.23*	28

Revenue data from Forbes.com, ticket price data from FanCostExperience.com

*average price below NFL average

One thing that stands out is a strong correlation between the average price per ticket, and whether a team was ranked toward the top or the bottom of the "fan equity" list. Just two teams in the top ten feature average ticket prices below the NFL average of $78.38, while all but one of the bottom ten teams have average ticket prices that are below the NFL average. Each team that ranks in the top seven for the highest average ticket prices in the league lands in the top ten of the "fan equity" results.

Another thing that can't be accounted for in the "fan equity" model, or any other model, is the number of ticket revenue generated on any given Sunday by fans of the visiting team, or casual observers, as opposed to engaged fans of the home team. A Bears fan wrote about his family's trip to Cowboys Stadium last season to watch the Bears take on the Cowboys, and his account is an excellent argument against the validity of this study. He observed many Bears fans, and many "fans" who appeared to be casual observers, and his hypothesis is that the cost of tickets is putting the NFL stadium experience out of reach for average fans. And, the revenue-based model seems to penalize teams which have maintained more fan-friendly ticket pricing.

The "fan equity" study focused on box office revenue, likely because incorporating total revenue opens up a theoretical can of worms. For example: should the Cowboys' position in these results benefit from the fact that it costs $75 to park at their stadium on game days, by far the most in the NFL? Or should the results be weighted in Dallas' favor due to the fact that they are the only team in the NFL that is permitted to license their own apparel? Box office revenue does include luxury suites revenue, and some teams are at a distinct disadvantage as far as that's concerned.

Rank	Team	Suites Available	Club Seats Available	Average Premium Ticket
1	Dallas Cowboys	300	14,102	$340.00
2	New England Patriots	80	6,460	$566.67
3	New York Jets	213	10,041	$301.36
4	New Orleans Saints	137	8,593	$177.61*
5	New York Giants	213	10,041	$464.75
6	Indianapolis Colts	140	7,264	$246.84
7	Chicago Bears	133	8,376	$389.00
8	Baltimore Ravens	122	8,108	$246.84
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	129	8,100	$218.65*
10	Tennessee Titans	171	11,682	$164.08*

Premium ticket cost data from FanCostExperience.com

*below league average of $243.70

And, the bottom ten teams:

Rank	Team	Suites Available	Club Seats Available	Average Premium Ticket
23	Seattle Seahawks	112	7,826	$158.63*
24	Buffalo Bills	132	8,831	$192.56*
25	Miami Dolphins	196	10,470	$200.00*
26	San Francisco 49ers	135	0	$275.00
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	89	11,692	$229.17*
28	Detroit Lions	127	7,312	$142.98*
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	197	12,053	234.13*
30	Arizona Cardinals	108	7,356	$199.31*
31	Atlanta Falcons	171	6,180	$249.60
32	Oakland Raiders	143	5,552	$139.93*

Premium ticket cost data from Fan Cost Experience.com

*below league average of $243.70

Again, the bulk of the teams ranked toward the bottom of the "fan equity" study have average premium ticket prices below the national average, while the majority of the teams in the top ten have average premium ticket costs above the league average. The argument can be made that the teams in the top tier have more fan equity because fans are willing to pay more to see their favorite team, but while premium seats, particularly luxury suites, generate a ton of revenue for teams, they're most frequently leased by corporations, not your average passionate, invested football fan. Corporations can afford it, the average fan cannot. A corporation doesn't feel physically ill and heartbroken for days (or months, maybe even years) when their team loses in the NFC Championship Game after coming so very close to a Super Bowl appearance. Instead, they enjoy a significant tax break for being able to show off their fancy suite to clients.

While the study did take stadium capacity into consideration in its model, it did not appear to account for any increase in total tickets sold over a period of time. Since the win-loss records they factored in encompassed the last five seasons, let's look at the ticket sales data, by the percentage of the stadium that was filled on any given Sunday, over the same period of time. Here's the top ten:

Rank	Team	Stadium Capacity	2008 % Capacity	2012 % Capacity	Increase / Decrease
1	Dallas Cowboys	80,000	96.2%*	110.7%	+14.5%
2	New England Patriots	68,756	100%	100%	0%
3	New York Jets	82,566	95.1%*	95.9%	+0.4%
4	New Orleans Saints	76,468	96.1%	99.9%	+1.8%
5	New York Giants	82,566	95.8%	97.6%	+1.8%
6	Indianapolis Colts	67,000	105.4%	103.5%	-1.9%
7	Chicago Bears	61,500	100.9%	101.3%	+0.4%
8	Baltimore Ravens	71,008	100.4%	100.4%	0
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	65,050	96.8%	94.1%	-2.7%
10	Tennessee Titans	69,143	100%	100%	0

Attendance data from ESPN.com

* old stadium

And here's the bottom ten:

Rank	Team	Capacity	2008 % Capacity	2012 % Capacity	Increase/ Decrease
23	Seattle Seahawks	67,000	101.5%	101.4%	-0.1%
24	Buffalo Bills	73,079	97.7%	88.9%	-8.8%
25	Miami Dolphins	76,100	87.1%	76.3%	-10.8%
26	San Francisco 49ers	70,207	96.2%	99.3%	+3.1%
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	73,000	97.0%	96.8%	-0.2%
28	Detroit Lions	65,000	84.5%	98.9%	+14.4%
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	65,856	98.3%	83.9%	-14.4%
30	Arizona Cardinals	63,400	101.1%	96.0%	-5.1%
31	Atlanta Falcons	71,228	89.9%	98.4%	+8.5%
32	Oakland Raiders	63,132	91.8%	86.0%	-5.8%

Attendance data from ESPN.com

It's important to note that Dallas, the Jets and the Giants all transitioned to new, larger-capacity stadiums during this five-season time frame, so their respective increases in attendance are technically larger than the percentage listed, because of an increase in stadium capacity.

Another thing that's worth noting: the Oakland Raiders, the only team ranked below the Atlanta Falcons in the "fan equity" study, are actually reducing the capacity of O.co Coliseum in Oakland to 53,000, which is significantly lower than Soldier Field in Chicago, currently the league's smallest stadium. The reason the Raiders are limiting their existing stadium's capacity is to avoid blackouts, and Oakland is pursuing the prospect of building a new, smaller stadium with a maximum capacity of approximately 50,000. Of course, Oakland's attendance in 2008 wasn't particularly great, and it has significantly declined over the past five seasons. So, they're ranked dead last in the league--and there's some justification--but isn't it a little puzzling how a Falcons team that has increased attendance at games by 8.5% over the past five seasons is ranked just above a team that is actively reducing their stadium capacity to avoid television blackouts?

To take the box office revenue data one step further, let's consider blackout data over the past five seasons. Games are blacked out by the NFL in a local television market when a team does not meet a certain threshold of tickets sold for said game. If games are being blacked out, it's an indication that the local fan base is not invested enough in the team to purchase a ticket and go to a game. On any given Sunday, you'll find Bucs fans lamenting a local blackout, yet they were ranked (slightly) more highly than the Falcons in the results of the "fan equity" study. This may be the biggest affront to reason in the results of this study, because it's difficult to accept that teams who regularly face local television blackouts would be ranked more highly than the Falcons, who don't. Let's look at recent blackout data, and see where teams who have faced local television blackouts rank on the "fan equity" list.

Rank	Team	2012 Blackouts
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6
11	San Diego Chargers	4
24	Buffalo Bills	2
19	Cincinnati Bengals	1
32	Oakland Raiders	1
31	Atlanta Falcons	0

Atlanta, with zero blackouts in 2012, is ranked below four teams that experienced television blackouts last season. San Diego, ranked 11th on the "fan equity" results, had four blackouts.

The New York Jets are near the top of the "fan equity" list, but you can't really quantify fan frustration over the poor performance of that team over the past couple of seasons. Their most recognizable fan, Fireman Ed, actually stopped attending games due to the behavior of other Jets fans toward him and the players in response to their poor play. Does that sound like a team that should be ranked in the top ten for "fan equity" to you? The Jets are near the top because they have a fancy new stadium, and seats are expensive, and they generate a ton of box office revenue from corporations buying premium tickets.

On the other hand, Green Bay, a franchise with a storied legacy, a recent Super Bowl victory, and what most would consider to be demonstrable fan support--a years-long waiting list for season tickets, a unique ownership arrangement in that the team is publicly held by fans, the distinction of topping the list for local market television listings, staying near the top of the league in web traffic, and with a stadium that was recently voted the best fan experience in the league--comes in at 14 in the "fan equity" rankings. Green Bay comes in at less than a dollar above the league average price per ticket at $78.84. Their revenue doesn't permit them to crack the top ten.

And the Falcons, who set records for 2013 season ticket sales, and then sold out all of their single-game 2013 season home tickets in one solitary day, and have experienced a level of success over the past five seasons unparalleled in franchise history, are ranked 31st. I respect what the authors of this study were attempting to accomplish, and acknowledge that fan engagement is an element of the business of the NFL that is nearly impossible to quantify, but focusing so exclusively on box office revenue while not recognizing variables like premium seating and increased attendance over time skewed their results.

So where should the Falcons rank? I don't know, and it really doesn't matter. I get really tired of the whole "bad sports town" drama. But there is quantifiable data that points to increased fan engagement in Atlanta, and when you compare the Falcons with teams ranked near them on the "fan equity" list, Atlanta's increase in attendance at the Georgia Dome alone over the past five seasons alone is enough to move them, as well as the 49ers and the Lions, higher on the list.

What do you think about the study? Where should the Falcons be ranked?