FanPost

Ryan, Flacco, and Adjusted QB Wins


With all the talk of “QB Wins” the last few days (especially Flacco's Playoff wins), I decided to look for something better, and bingo – Adjusted QB Wins from PFR. Read the blog entry for details, but a simple summary is, “a QB's winning percentage above or below average, depending on how many points the Defense allows”.

This will help us try to figure out just how much the dominant Ravens Defense has helped Flacco (of course I'm going to defend "my" guy).

Expected Win Percentage, according to PFR:

Points Allowed

0-10

11-15

16-20

21-25

26-33

34+

Avg QB Win %

.935

.761

.526

.388

.171

.036

Now we can tally Regular Season Records and figure Adjusted QB Wins:

(jump)

Records

0-10

11-15

16-20

21-25

26-33

34+

Matt Ryan*

7-0

2-0

6-0

2-3

2-4

0-3

Joe Flacco

12-0

3-2

1-3

2-2

2-5

0-0

*I didn’t count 2009 Week 12 vs Tampa Bay (20-17 Win), since he left the game after the first series with the Turf Toe injury

Note: Baltimore has had 17 games allowing fewer than 15 Points in the last two seasons (vs 9 for the Falcons), and has not had a single game allowing more than 33 Points. Think that helps?

Adjusted QB Wins

TOTAL

Matt Ryan

+4.70

Joe Flacco

+0.12

According to this, Joe Flacco (and the Ravens Offense) has won pretty much exactly the games they were expected to win, based on how the Defense performed. And Matt Ryan (and the Falcons Offense) won almost 5 games more than an average QB would, considering how the Atlanta Defense has performed.

FYI, each has Won & Lost the Playoff games they were expected to (except one), based only on Points Allowed:

Records

0-10

11-15

16-20

21-25

26-33

34+

Ryan PLAYOFFS

0-1

Flacco PLAYOFFS

2-0

1-0

0-1

0-1

Note 1: That "16-20 Points Allowed" Loss for Flacco was really pretty much a 50/50 toss up (.526 Average QB Win %). It was last year’s 3-20 Loss to the Colts in the Divisional Round (20/35 189yd 0TD-2INT). I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt here, because…

Note 2: I’m giving Ryan the benefit of the doubt in his Loss, even though he had 2 INT’s and was credited with the Fumble that was returned for a TD (which I still say was not his fault). Even if those 7 points weren’t counted against the Defense, they would’ve given up 23 Points and still would have been expected to lose by this formula (21-25, a .388 Expected Win %). Plus, he was pretty much the only Offense (Turner ran for 2.3 YPC) in a game where they ended up scoring 24 Points.

Note 3: Upon closer inspection, I’d say Flacco has been dragged along (kicking and screaming) by the Baltimore Defense. His 5 game Playoff totals are beyond ugly (57/120, 47.5%comp, 660yd, 1TD-6INT, good for a 46.5 QB Rating).

Conclusion

These two QB's will be linked throughout their careers, and they have nearly identical statistics so far, except for the Ravens' Playoff success. Flacco has been given a bit too much praise for the work that his Defense has done, and Ryan hasn't yet been able to get past the obstacle his own Defense has created. But both of these guys are super talented, and have very good teams around them. I am genuinely excited to see what they have in store next season and beyond (yes, both of them).

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>