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Statistics 101: The Defensive Line Edition OR "Why Falcohol > HATERade"

I love this time of year. Leftover candy from Halloween, candles that smell like pie, and honey-drenched pork products.

What more could a Falcons fan ask for? Winning tomorrow would be nice. But if the Falcons are going to win tomorrow, our D-Line must come ready-to-play. I'm confident they will. But if you ask Raheem Morris, nothing can stop Freeman and company.

If you're downright parched and there's some delicious HATERade in your mini-fridge, then join me after the jump (where I'll convince you Falcohol is better).

Let me start with a caveat:

There are player-specific advanced stats you may want to check out. 

We'll probably do another player-specific D-Line post before the end of the season. Today though, we're breaking down the Falcons D-Line versus Bucs O-Line match up.

Updated O-Line stats can be found here.

Updated D-Line stats can be found here.

Power Success Against

Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.

Our PSA is dismal. In fact, it ranks 25/32 teams (71% or 9% over the league average).

Tampa Bay's Power Success is 63% (14/32) or 1% over the league average.

Advantage: BUCS

Stuffed Rate Against

Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Our SRA is average. Literally. League average is 19%. We rank 19/32 teams at 19%. 

Tampa Bay's Stuff Rate is 23% (25/32 teams).

Advantage: FALCONS (by an inch)

Adjusted Sack Rate

ASR takes more than sack total into account. And that's why I dig it. It basically gives intentional-grounding penalties as-much-value as a sack. It then adjusts for distance, opponent, and down. Pretty cool stuff if you ask me.

Our ASR is 6.6% or 0.2% higher than the league average (12/32 teams). We're not exactly sacktastic. But we've pressured opposing QBs at a decent clip, which is noteworthy.

Tampa Bay's ASR Against is 8.3% or 1.9% higher than the league average (28/32 teams). In other words: Freeman fall down.

Advantage: FALCONS

Adjusted Line Yards Against

Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations.

Our ALY Against is 3.82 (12/32 teams).

Tampa Bay's ALY is 3.42 (28/32 teams).

Advantage: FALCONS


Well what does it all mean?!

I think it means we're gonna win. OK ... maybe that's not what it means. But I do think it means we'll win the trench battle tomorrow, at least on the defensive side of the ball. What do y'all think?