This looks to be a fairly even matchup before you factor in the Home Field Advantage. The Jets are slightly above average, and the Falcons are slightly below average. The good thing is that the Jets may not be able to take advantage of our biggest weakness.
When the Falcons have the ball:
DVOA says that the Jets have the #1 Overall Defense, and the #1 Pass Defense. In the "Watch Out for Darrelle Revis" Post, I said Redman (or Ryan) should throw to whichever WR is on the opposite side of the field as their shutdown CB. The problem? They are great against every single type of receiver: 4th against #1's, 4th against #2's, 3rd against "Other WR's", 8th against TE's and 2nd against RB's in the passing game. For all the talk about Rex Ryan being blitz happy, they don't really have that many Sacks (tied for 18th in the league). Our O-Line against their defensive front 7 should be a wash, at the worst. Once again, we are facing a team with a high Variance number. Our best bet looks like pounding them in the running game, and hope their defense has a "bad game" overall.
When the Jets have the ball:
Those numbers look pretty close across the board, huh? Obvously, Thomas Jones is our biggest concern when the Falcons are on Defense. Football Outsiders says their success in the running game should be credited more credited to the O-Line (ranked #11 in Adjusted Line Yards) that Jones (only a 0.2% individual DVOA), but either way, they are usually able to get the job done. We have been pretty good against the run this season, and our defensive gameplan should be to make Sanchez beat us in the air. Even though Delhomme and Josh Freeman had good games against our terrible pass defense, Sanchez (-22.7% DVOA) is in the same ballpark as those guys, and is coming off an injury. If he is unable to play (he's listed as Probable), Clemens (-40.8% DVOA) has been even worse. Also of note, their O-Line is pretty poor in Pass Protection (#25 in Adjusted Sack Rate), so hopefully we can get some pressure on the QB (of course, our D-Line is 25th in ASR on defense, so that may be a wash, as well).
The Jets have the #9 overall Special Teams according to DVOA, and are solid in every aspect of the kicking games besides Kick Returns, where they are only slightly below average. We are still #1 in Kickoffs/Kick Coverage, and have just this week moved out of last place in FG/XP kicks.