This Is Why I Don't Trust Draft Experts

by Dave the Falconer on Mar 19, 2008 11:54 PM EDT in Falcons News Comment 4 comments

Those of you who are frequenting the ESPN SportsNation mock draft may have noticed that people all across our great nation decided that the Falcons would pick Darren McFadden at #3. Never mind that we just signed Michael Turner, already have Jerious Norwood and need to fill several other positions more urgently. Because people in East Fartpost, Wyoming can't expect to know or care about that, I can definitely let the collective opinion of SportsNation slide. Even if it is goddamn ridiculous.

Jeremy Green, however, has earned my undying scorn.

The idea of "taking the best player available" has long been an infuriating one for me. Yes, it may be hard to pass up a phenomenal talent if it's clear he's going to be a game changer immediately. McFadden might even be that guy. But why people feel the need to assign motives to the chronically struggling Falcons without doing any homework at all just completely friggin' baffles me. Even worse, Todd McShay lists our top three needs as QB, OT and DT, before dipping into RB again at #4.

Listen to me very carefully.

For those non-Falcons fans visiting this site, please be wary of knuckle-dragging troglodytes who bang out a quick list or paragraph on their computer. These people may well be experts in a number of subjects, but the Atlanta Falcons are not always among them. Our new general manager, Tom Dimitroff, has stressed building the entire team through the draft and clearly signed Michael Turner to fill the void at RB so he can concentrate on more critical positions. Yeah, Turner could end up as the latest in a long line of Falcons free agents who pull a Najeh Davenport and poop in a hamper as soon as they get a big contract. For this season, at least, he's going to be the starter. The Falcons would have to be Grade-A retarded to draft McFadden at #3 overall, best player available be good goddamned. Darren McFadden doesn't even come close to filling a need on this team, unless he can also play QB, OT, DT and S at the same time. If he can, then Jeremy Green is a genius and humanitarian who deserves the Nobel Prize presented by a pair of Playboy bunnies. Put me down for skeptical on this one.

The point here, I guess, is that in the haste to come up with a different spin on the draft, experts and casual fans alike sometimes come up with things that are just plain stupid. I may not like Matt Ryan being projected at the #3 spot, but at least it's defensible. Not so much with McFadden. The other point is that the Falcons have a really good chance to head down a winning path and ease the seemingly Sisyphian suffering we've all lived through as fans of this often god-awful team. If that strategy turns to "the best player available," then I'm afraid we're boned once again.

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I feel your pain

America just bestowed Brian Brohm upon us, despite the fact that he certainly isn't a top ten pick. However, clearly if the Ravens need a Quarterback, then they have no other choice but to draft one, regardless of how much they are reaching. As for our needs, our 4th listed need is ILB, because after all Ray Lewis is 32 and therefore retirement-bound <rolls eyes>. Nevermind he made the Pro Bowl this year and Tedy Bruschi signed a multiyear contract at 35. Let's not mention Junior Seau. They also specifically say we need a Left OT when in fact the Right OT is the more immediate hole on our oline. Todd McShay is an idiot, however, and by putting his name on something you immediately cleanse it of credibility.

As for Best Player Available, the Ravens are one of the more notorious practitioners of that policy, and... it works. Not necessarily Darren McFadden, but drafting BPA means not reaching for any player, regardless of need. Examples of the Ravens doing this include Jon Ogden, Ed Reed, Todd Heap, and Terrel Suggs. It's worked out well for us. However, at #3 you obviously have the freedom to draft an elite player at a position of greater need than running back, and Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Seydrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston, Matt Ryan and Jake Long are all elite talents worthy of #3 overall. If one of those were to fall to the Ravens, I would hope the Ravens would draft him regardless of need (except maybe Dorsey, who couldn't play in a 3-4).

by mathgeek on Mar 20, 2008 1:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mock Drafts

Anyone who watches the draft and I can honestly say I've watched the last 10 or so from start to finish that all these guys do is guess.
Anyone of us could create our own "mock" drafts but these guys get paid to do it and do so with the intent to be as right as possible so they'll be invited to play with the big boys aka ESPN and now the NFL Network.
I mean if McFadden is there at 3 and say the Cowboys or some other team decide hey we can't let this cat go any further and want him I say trade down and pick up more picks

by gasportsfan on Mar 20, 2008 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dimitroff can't be that dumb, can he?

Please tell me he can't.

by SG Standard on Mar 20, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not Der Comrade, but...

Blank could very well be the one pushing for that pick. The GM isn't the only one making decisions and we all know how hands-on Blank wants to be. We have all seen his desire to make the splashy play and picking McDaddy fits his style. Sometimes the GM's hands are tied and when it all comes down to it, Blank is the boss, he's the one paying the bills, and if you value your job, then after arguing the opposite, sometimes you just do what your told and try to make the best of it.

Now, that being said, I do have to admit that it seems, and this is a very obscure seeming, that Blank is standing to the side for once. The low key staff that was hired is an example of that. I think Crumpler's release was the largest example of all as Blank is a huge community type and Crumpler was the same. Those two could show up anywhere in the greater Atlanta area and donations to whatever cause they had going on would start pouring in. So, I believe that he is actually allowing the Comrade to do his job and I am hoping that means we won't be picking McFather nor Ryan at three, but instaed either attempting to trade down or picking up Dorsey.

by Jesse on Mar 21, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs