The Falcoholic: FanPosts

Is Gonzo hurting our offense?

2009-11-20T16:44:40Z

Last night I had a dream...

Nothing close to the prowess of Martin Luther King's Dream, but something pretty damn enlightening.

In this dream my beloved Atlanta Falcons did not have Tony Gonzalez, and shockingly developed into a more effective offense because of it! Ryan was taking more deep shots to Roddy and Jenkins, much like last season, and our offense was putting up 35 points a game. Turner and Snelling were also benefiting from the absence of Gonzo. HOW? Defenses were not coming up close to the line to double our TE, but rather playing deep to cover our WR's.

Problem: My observations from looking at film from this season thus far is Ryan is forcing it to Gonzalez. Tony is always the first or second read, and if he isnt open Ryan throws the ball away. The last time I saw Tony down field 25+ yards was the TD against KC earlier this season. WHY? It seems that we are trying to give Tony the short route to help bail out Ryan, and help him settle into games. Instead we should be opening the field up and spreading it around to more people. Roddy and Gonzo have the majority of the receptions on our team, and their is a huge drop off in the next players receptions. All successful passing teams New Orleans, Indianapolis, New England, etc. spread the ball around to everyone on the offense.

Solution: Use Tony more as a decoy than as a primary target. When we played San Francisoco we used him to perfection. Saftey's were pressing up on Gonzo, and Ryan was able to hit Roddy over the top!!! Why have we gotten away from that? Could someone (Malarky) explain this to me?

Why is the offense so stagnant?

If we are going to start winning games again we need to get it going on offense. Our defense will give up points, so our offense needs to start scoring, a lot!

DVOA Matchup - NY Giants

2009-11-20T15:42:46Z

This is my first attempt at a Matchup post, so if I'm leaving something out that you guys think I'm overlooking, just let me know in the comments. I'm going to try to find areas the Falcons can exploit, or where we are especially vulnerable - using Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here). A quick explanation is that it is a percentage above or below average, with positive numbers good for Offense and negative numbers good for Defense.

Just so everybody is clear, I'm going to list the DVOA, then the league Rank, because what does a 58.7% Passing Offense mean (besides 50%+ better than average)? I think it's easier to understand if I tell you that's the #1 Passing Offense in the league (that's the Patriots, by the way). The DVOA number is more important, because there may be a huge gap between #5 and #6, but both numbers together should give everybody a good idea of where we stand.

When the Falcons have the ball:

TEAM	Overall	Rank	Passing	Rank	Rushing	Rank	Variance	Rank
ATL Offense	12.50%	15	18.30%	16	13.70%	6	3.40%	3
NYG Defense	-3.40%	10	-6.00%	9	-0.30%	23	9.40%	27

Yes, the Running Game is all the way up to #6 in the league after the horrendous start to the season. The flip side of that is that the Passing Game is down to middle of the pack after a great start. Obviously, it looks like our Running Game would be the way to attack, but with Turner and Norwood both hobbled, it will be a tough task. Looking deeper, our Offensive Line and their Defensive Line is basically a wash - both units are in the Top 10 in Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) and Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR). The only areas they look to be vulnerable are runs to the outside. Their D-Line is well below average on runs to Left End (#28) and to Right End (#25), plus they are dead last (#32) in allowing runs of 10+ yards (this may actually be a problem with the Linebackers, not the D-Line).

I included the Variance number because I thought it was very interesting. What it means is that the Falcons' overall Offensive production has been one of the most consistent in the league. Obviously, it doesn't account for wild swings in the Run and Passing game, just the overall number. Sadly, we've been consistently average (the #15 ranking). If they could just put together complete games offensively... The Giants defense has been one of the least consistent units in the league, which seems to be good for us. Generally, they have a solid defense, but they are prone to have a stinkbomb every now and again.

When the Giants have the ball:

TEAM	Overall	Rank	Passing	Rank	Rushing	Rank
ATL Defense	8.60%	22	20.80%	27	-5.30%	15
NYG Offense	8.50%	18	25.50%	15	0.20%	16

Ugh, our defense is ugly. And our Pass Defense has an Equal Opportunity Policy - they are ranked #25 against #1 WR's, #27 against #2 WR's, and #24 against "Other" WR's. Pass Defense against TE's and RB's has been better, but the Giants don't use them in the passing game too much (Boss only has 32 targets, Jacobs 20, and Bradshaw 13). I'd expect a "death by 1000 papercuts" game out of Steve Smith (17.8% DVOA, 61 Receptions, 11.8 YPC), plus a few huge plays from Hakeem Nicks (13.4% DVOA, 23 Receptions, 17.7 YPC). On paper, their Offensive Line versus our Defensive Line looks to be the biggest mismatch of the game, though:

TEAM	ALY	Rank	ASR	Rank
ATL D-Line	4.36	27	5.70%	24
NYG O-Line	4.33	6	4.30%	5

We're going to struggle to stop the Run; we're going to have a hard time putting pressure on Manning; therefore, we're going to struggle stopping the Pass. That's nothing new.

Special Teams:

Not a lot to report here. The Giants are slightly below average in every aspect of Special Teams except Kickoffs/KO Coverage. The Falcons are the #1 team in Kickoffs/KO Coverage; slightly above average in KO Returns and Punt Returns; slightly below average in Punts/Punt Coverage; and #31 (ahead of only Tampa) in Field Goals and Extra Points. Special Teams should not be a big factor, unless the game hinges on another Elam FG try.

Overall:

TEAM	DVOA	Rank
NYG	9.80%	14
ATL	4.60%	17

The numbers show that the Giants are the (slightly) better team, plus they're at home and coming off a BYE. Most of the biggest mismatches seem to swing their way, as well. Our best chance may be somthing that numbers can't quantify - emotions. Maybe they play out of their minds because their backs are to the wall; maybe they get a boost if Norwood (or Turner) unexpectedly plays. I'm just not getting my hopes too high for this one.

Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 9

2009-11-19T16:22:08Z

I’m going to just post what info I have before I get two games behind. I haven’t been doing this, but I really should – here’s the link to the NFL Game Book for the Redskins game.

Offense

I’m going to take the easy way out and put up some quotes from Football Outsiders’ Quick Reads.

Matt Ryan, who FO ranked the #18 most valuable QB in Week 9:

He'll take the win, but something's up with Ryan. He has eight picks in his last four games, and his interception today wasn't the sort of good decision he's become associated with; it was a crossing pattern that Ryan threw into triple coverage. The rest of his day was low-risk, low-reward stuff against an average pass defense.

This is further driven home by the fact that nobody averaged more than 9.0 yards per reception, and the fact that his longest completions went for 14, 13, 13, and 12 yards. You can see here that he never tried to go downfield. The biggest plays were all on the ground – Turner for 58, 33, and 30.

Michael Turner, who FO ranked the #2 most valuable RB in Week 9 (he was far and away the best runner, but Frank Gore had a big game catching passes out of the backfield for the 49ers):

The Redskins have exhibited an excellent run defense this year, but they sure didn't look like it on Sunday. LaRon Landry took the cake with a dismal performance on Turner's two touchdown runs (and that doesn't even include his cheap shot at Matt Ryan that led to a brawl). The first one was a more subtle mistake, an awful route to the ballcarrier that gave Turner an easy path on his sweep and allowed him to score virtually untouched from 30 yards out. The second one was worse, as Landry lined up Turner for a tackle and then decided to dive with his helmet at Turner's feet like he was a running back attempting to cut block a pass rusher. It failed miserably, and when DeAngelo Hall followed with a DeAngelo Hall-esque tackle, Turner was gone for his second long touchdown of the day. Neither run should have happened.

This is true, but almost all big plays are a combination of a great play by one player and a mistake by another. Even if Landry took him down for a gain of “only” 10 yards on each of those big runs, he still would’ve averaged 5.4 YPC for the game – which is still very good, as opposed to the ridiculous day he actually ended up having.

Defense

Name	Plays	Stop Rate	Defeats
Jonathan Babineaux	9.5	79%	2.5
Erik Coleman	8.5	18%	0
Mike Peterson	8	25%	0.5
Chris Houston	7	43%	1
Curtis Lofton	6.5	31%	0.5
John Abraham	3.5	43%	0.5
Vance Walker	3	100%	2
Chevis Jackson	3	33%	0
Stephen Nicholas	2.5	40%	0
Thomas DeCoud	2.5	60%	0
Kroy Biermann	2	100%	1
Jamaal Anderson	1.5	67%	0
Trey Lewis	1	100%	0
Brent Grimes	1	0%	0
Tye Hill	1	100%	1

Babineaux was a man among boys; Houston, Abe, Lofton, Vance Walker, and DeCoud were solid; Peterson and Coleman were cleaning up a lot of trash; somehow Tye Hill played 58 snaps and didn’t make a single tackle (maybe that’s good for a CB, though), but his one “Play” was kind of a big deal – the 62 yard Interception return for a TD.

Did anybody else get mad at the announcing crew (I’m pretty sure it was color commentator/analyst Daryl “Moose” Johnston) for ripping John Abraham for “not holding his ground” on a Betts run in the second half. They kept showing the replay of Abe backpedaling a few steps before trying to make a play as Betts rumbled through the hole where he originally lined up outside Left Tackle, even going back to it after a few more plays were run. The problem here? That was what Abe was supposed to do – it was a Zone Blitz with two guys coming from the Offensive Right side. I don’t expect much from TV announcers, but c’mon – you are paid to explain to us what is happening, not make us dumber fans for having heard your “analysis”. Yeesh!

Special Teams Tackles: one each for Weems, Biermann, Nicholas, and Stecker.

2009 Falcons Charity Toy Drive

2009-11-18T18:36:26Z

Hey Everyone! Just thought you should know about the Atlanta Falcons Charity Toy Drive in December. Several players will be out at the Mall of Georgia signing autographs for fans that bring in a new, unwrapped toy ($10 +). They're putting this on for charity, with the Toys for Tots program collecting the toys. There will also be Marines on hand to collect the toys and greet fans.

The event is at the Mall of Georgia (Nordstrom Court, near Santa) on Monday, 12/14/2009 from 6:00-8:00 PM

The players participating are:

Thomas DeCoud

Erik Coleman

Tye Hill

Chevis Jackson

William Moore

This is a great opportunity to meet some players, get some autographs, and give back during the holiday season. There are plenty of children out there that aren't as fortunate each year, and this is a win-win opportunity for everyone involved to have a truly magical holiday season.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 10

2009-11-17T19:18:53Z

via i37.tinypic.com

Bummed about the Panthers game? Do as Professor Frink does when HE's feeling blue! Immerse yourself in warm, soothing data. Ahhh...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.1	Colts	9-0-0	28.0	15.8	0.856	0.946	1.802
2	89.9	Patriots	6-3-0	28.8	16.7	0.883	0.914	1.798
3	79.3	Ravens	5-4-0	24.7	17.1	0.692	0.894	1.585
4	77.7	Vikings	8-1-0	30.1	20.4	0.922	0.633	1.555
5	74.5	Cowboys	6-3-0	24.9	18.8	0.705	0.786	1.491
6	73.6	Saints	9-0-0	36.8	21.9	0.994	0.479	1.473
7	73.2	Steelers	6-3-0	23.0	17.4	0.587	0.876	1.463
8	72.4	Bengals	7-2-0	22.0	16.3	0.521	0.928	1.448
9	72.1	Packers	5-4-0	25.8	19.9	0.754	0.688	1.442
10	72.1	Eagles	5-4-0	26.9	20.4	0.809	0.633	1.442
11	69.9	Jets	4-5-0	22.1	17.6	0.528	0.870	1.398
12	68.4	Cardinals	6-3-0	25.4	20.4	0.736	0.633	1.369
13	61.5	Texans	5-4-0	23.9	20.9	0.644	0.586	1.231
14	60.4	Broncos	6-3-0	18.6	16.8	0.299	0.910	1.209
15	60.1	Chargers	6-3-0	26.3	22.4	0.783	0.419	1.201
16	60.0	Falcons	5-4-0	24.6	21.6	0.685	0.515	1.200
17	57.5	Giants	5-4-0	25.8	22.7	0.754	0.395	1.149
18	54.7	49ers	4-5-0	20.4	20.0	0.417	0.677	1.094
19	46.0	Redskins	3-6-0	15.6	19.0	0.151	0.768	0.919
20	45.3	Seahawks	3-6-0	20.8	22.0	0.439	0.466	0.905
21	43.1	Bears	4-5-0	20.7	22.3	0.432	0.431	0.862
22	41.6	Dolphins	4-5-0	24.2	25.2	0.665	0.168	0.833
23	31.7	Panthers	4-5-0	19.6	23.9	0.360	0.275	0.634
24	31.1	Jaguars	5-4-0	20.1	24.4	0.395	0.227	0.622
25	24.4	Titans	3-6-0	21.0	28.3	0.454	0.035	0.489
26	23.9	Bills	3-6-0	15.6	23.3	0.151	0.327	0.478
27	21.7	Chiefs	2-7-0	15.8	23.9	0.160	0.275	0.435
28	13.9	Raiders	2-7-0	9.8	24.1	0.023	0.255	0.277
29	13.5	Buccaneers	1-8-0	17.4	28.4	0.238	0.033	0.270
30	9.9	Browns	1-8-0	8.7	25.0	0.014	0.184	0.198
31	9.2	Lions	1-8-0	15.9	29.3	0.165	0.019	0.183
32	4.5	Rams	1-8-0	11.1	27.7	0.038	0.052	0.089
			means	21.7	21.7

The Ravens' shutout of the lowly Browns worked wonders for them here, who knew they were "better" than the Saints? What a revelation! Colts were (fittingly?) back at #1 this week. Jets appear to be the best darn mediocre team around, these ratings absolutely love them this year. Only a handful of teams moved in the rankings much this week. Our Falcons fell 4 spots, exceeded only by the Eagles, down 7. Climbers were led by the Vikings, up 5 slots, Ravens up 4.

There's our Fun With Numbers for Week 10. I hope you reaped a nugget or two of insight, and take something good away from an otherwise forgettable Falcons weekend. Download the spreadsheet here, if you wish. Salud!

Should the Falcons pursue Larry Johnson?

2009-11-17T01:33:14Z

So like many of you here witnessed yesterday, our beloved running back Michael Turner has been injured and looks like he will be gone a while. Jerious Norwood if I am not mistaken is still injured and trying to get back on the field. How about a solution to all of this - LARRY JOHNSON!!!

Well hear me out before you call me a crazy S.O.B. Larry Johnson is one talented back who of course is miles better than our options right now (Jason Snelling and apparently Aaron Stecker). Mr. Johnson would provide great talent at RB that we could use right now while Norwood and Turner are injured. Sure we have Snelling but lets face it but IMO Larry Johnson offers speed and brute strength combination that could really work on our team similar to Turner.

I would really like if the staff to consider him even though it will be unlikely that he will join because of 1) his attitude 2) possibly expensive contract or 3) other. If signing him means a high chance at getting some wins and a wild card spot or even that back-to-back winning season I say get him.

Any other people agree with me? I have a feeling most people here won't lol.

Vent Fest '09 (DO NOT read this unless you want to read irrational venting)

2009-11-16T23:53:32Z

KDC made an excellent point in a different thread in response to a comment re: overreaction on this site. It got me thinking: MAYBE everyone really deserves a place to vent. I am not saying you can only vent here, but I think it might be a good idea to have a place where one can vent absent sarcastic responses, accusations of haterdome, and retributive malevolence.

We'll here you go. I declare this (I'm not even sure I have this authority - thus feel free to delete this thread if it is out of line Fearless Leader) Vent Fest '09. I doubt our collective frustration will be any higher than it is now in the near future (i.e., we're finally realizing this is not a SB team and - more than likely - not a playoff team, depending on how certain people recover). Accuse Matty Ice of illicit drug use, call for Burner's resignation, question if Smitty's eye brows are simply throwing off the team's mojo ... your comments need not be rationale or based on facts. In other words, opine to your heart's content!

I only ask that you recommend this, thereby allocating a space where irrational rants can be had until Matty and company turn this ship around next week. THANK YOU and GOOD DAY!

Big Blue View answers your questions about the Giants

2009-11-16T13:43:32Z

Good Morning Everyone,

Jim here from Big Blue View, and we're ready to take your questions on the Giants heading into this week's game. With the Eagles and Cowboys losing yesterday, the Giants can bring themselves back into the race with a win over your Falcons. Should be a fun game, both teams need this one bad. Weather is not expected to be a factor, which probably benefits the Giants as well as the Falcons, based on Eli's troubles throwing in the wind.

Ok, fire away!

Giant's Fan Wondering what you guys think of us

2009-11-13T02:18:54Z

Hey falcon fans, my name's will

I'm here to wonder what you think of Big Blue and how you think the game'll go in two weeks.

I realize you guys are probably all excited about the panthers game (or maybe not depending on which Delholme shows up), but it's never to early in my opinion to find out what the enemy thinks.

Reading one of the posts, it seems a lot of you guys have a pretty low opinion of the giants and think you'll have a win against us.

Anyways, thanks for answering. Bye weeks are killer, and I've been excited about this game for a while. One of my best friends is a Falcon fan, so this'll be a little friendly battle between us. Hopefully it'll be as good as last weeks game (but with different results)

Playoffs bound Falcons are Back!!!

2009-11-12T21:25:22Z

Well well well,my birds are back..I know you sayin where they go,thought they was here..Uhm NO!2008 year was great year,letting Micheal Turner anchor the way,while Matt Ryan guide the way..begining of this year(2009)It was the other way around.

We putting the defence back in the box again and working them from in to out.Which Matt Ryan is able to pick off the 'D" when passing.(he's at his best when doing that).At the start of the year we was to busy trying to work in everybody in every game(Anthony,Roddy,Micheal and Letting Matt ryan shine more then ever),no,thats where they went wrong.Play like we played the last two games(as we did last year )and evrything will fall in place..

what do you think?

Coach Smith Fine/Charity Collections Information

2009-11-11T19:22:53Z

The community over at the Official Atlanta Falcons Message Board have put together a sort of charity collection in honor of the Mike Smith incident that took place during the Falcons/Redskins game.

It is likely that Smith will receive a fine for what happened(As Adam Schefter Tweeted.) In the same fashion that Smith has his players backs, we, the fans would like to show that we have our coach's back.

While we are aware we may not gather the full amount to pay off his fine, A goal of $2300 has been set. At the time of this posting, the total amount collected is $800 within the span of a matter of hours. The money gathered will be donated to the charity of Mike Smith's choosing.

Please, take a look over at the message boards: http://life.atlantafalcons.com/topic/3873689-the-official-coach-smith-finecharity-collections-information-current-total-81428/ for more information about the whole ordeal.

If the link doesn't work, check out the pinned topic within this forum: http://life.atlantafalcons.com/forum/45-talk-about-the-falcons/

Show your support, Falcons Fans!

EDIT: We broke the $1,000 benchmark at 6:00PM!!

Thomas Brown

2009-11-11T05:01:31Z

Added to the practice squad. If Norwood or Snelling need to take a significant break, TB is another back that brings something different to the team. From what I have read from Torgo on the cbs board, the Falcons are doing this now because they did not just cut Brown, but rather reached an injury settlement. So the team could not sign him until now. Brown showed up in the preseason, and he can be a capable back in the league.

Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 8

2009-11-10T21:14:56Z

Falcons-Saints on Monday Night Football, need I say more?

Offense

Michael Turner was great. Matt Ryan had troubles – we know that. Let’s talk about their First Down performance, as comparison. We’ve been slightly critical of the play-calling here (first down, Turner up the middle; second down, Turner up the middle; third down, pass). Turner certainly did his part when he got the ball of First Downs. He had 13 carries for 74 yards (a 5.7 yard average), including a 13 yard TD run. First down should be one of the easiest times to pass the ball (easier than 3rd and Long, at least), but Ryan struggled here, just like he did in other down & distance situations. Excluding two 4th Quarter spikes to stop the clock, and one scramble for 3 yards, Ryan had six first down completions for 73 yards. Sounds good, right? Well, you also have to take into account his seven incompletions. But wait, it gets worse: all three of the Saints’ sacks were on first down plays. 6-13 for 73 yards with 3 sacks is not going to get it done. Presented another way, his Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A – Pass Yards minus Sack yards divided by Pass Attempts plus Sacks) was 4.1 on First Downs. League Average is 6.1 NY/A (on all downs). Still, if not for the Tracy Porter interception in the Red Zone, after a tipped ball by Jonathan Vilma, they may have been able to win this one. I still say that was the biggest play of the game – down 24-28, about to score after the Pierre Thomas fumble. Instead, the Saints get the ball back with 8:30 left in the game, then go down and score to push the lead to 11.

Defense

Name	Plays	Stop Rate	Defeats
Curtis Lofton	13	38%	0
Erik Coleman	8	38%	1
Brent Grimes	8	25%	1
Stephen Nicholas	8	44%	0
Mike Peterson	5.5	18%	0
Chris Houston	5	20%	0
Thomas DeCoud	4	38%	1
Tye Hill	4	38%	0
Jamaal Anderson	3	67%	1
Kroy Biermann	2.5	80%	1
Vance Walker	2.5	100%	0
Jonathan Babineaux	2	100%	1
Chevis Jackson	2	50%	0
Coy Wire	2	100%	1

There are a lot of names on that list; do you see who’s missing? John Abraham had no sacks, and no tackles – he is credited in the box score with one QB Hit. I gave credit for two “Plays” for Coy Wire on what was really just one play – the one with less than 2 minutes left in the 4th Quarter where he had a Forced Fumble on Mike Bell (for a Stop/Defeat), and then came out of the pile with the Fumble Recovery himself (for a separate Stop). Looks like a pretty nice showing from Vance Walker. Considering how explosive the Saints Offense is, giving up 28 points (taking away the pick-6) is a pretty decent day.

The biggest problem here wasn’t just the big plays given up (there were six plays of 20+ yards allowed), but the consistency that New Orleans showed in getting the medium-to-long gains. Colston, for example, totally killed us: 10 yards on 3rd & 10; 18 yards for a TD; 15 yards on 1st & 10; 6 yards on 2nd & 10; 29 yards on 2nd & 8; and 7 yards on 2nd & 6 to set up a First & Goal. He caught all six passes headed his way, and all but one went for a First Down or TD.

Special Teams Tackles: One each for Mike Schneck, Brent Grimes, Michael Koenen, Jamaal Fudge; plus there was Coy Wire’s recovery of the Onsides Kick.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 9

2009-11-10T19:50:17Z

via i37.tinypic.com

Here's this week's serving of "Original Recipe" Ratings, with generous side dishes of Huh? and WTF? at no charge! And away we go...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.4	Patriots	6-2-0	28.1	14.4	0.846	0.963	1.809
2	89.1	Colts	8-0-0	27.1	13.5	0.804	0.977	1.781
3	77.8	Eagles	5-3-0	27.4	19.1	0.815	0.742	1.557
4	77.8	Cowboys	6-2-0	27.1	19.0	0.804	0.751	1.555
5	75.9	Steelers	6-2-0	24.4	17.4	0.661	0.857	1.518
6	75.1	Saints	8-0-0	37.9	21.8	0.995	0.507	1.502
7	73.5	Ravens	4-4-0	25.8	19.3	0.737	0.732	1.469
8	71.4	Bengals	6-2-0	22.5	16.9	0.545	0.883	1.428
9	71.3	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	0.919	0.507	1.426
10	70.5	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	0.521	0.889	1.410
11	66.2	Packers	4-4-0	26.9	21.5	0.793	0.531	1.324
12	65.6	Falcons	5-3-0	25.3	20.8	0.711	0.602	1.312
13	65.4	Cardinals	5-3-0	24.8	20.5	0.683	0.625	1.307
14	62.4	Broncos	6-2-0	18.8	15.5	0.312	0.936	1.248
15	61.0	Texans	5-4-0	23.9	20.9	0.632	0.589	1.220
16	59.2	Chargers	5-3-0	25.8	22.4	0.737	0.447	1.185
17	57.9	Giants	5-4-0	25.8	22.7	0.739	0.420	1.158
18	51.6	Seahawks	3-5-0	20.9	20.9	0.441	0.590	1.031
19	50.2	49ers	3-5-0	21.8	21.8	0.497	0.507	1.004
20	42.8	Bears	4-4-0	22.5	23.9	0.545	0.311	0.856
21	42.0	Redskins	2-6-0	14.1	19.3	0.109	0.732	0.840
22	41.7	Dolphins	3-5-0	24.1	25.5	0.646	0.188	0.834
23	35.9	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	0.151	0.567	0.717
24	30.2	Jaguars	4-4-0	19.6	24.8	0.363	0.241	0.604
25	27.9	Panthers	3-5-0	18.5	24.5	0.298	0.260	0.558
26	17.3	Chiefs	1-7-0	15.8	25.6	0.165	0.180	0.346
27	16.3	Titans	2-6-0	18.5	29.8	0.298	0.028	0.326
28	12.7	Buccaneers	1-7-0	16.8	28.9	0.208	0.045	0.253
29	12.0	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	0.026	0.214	0.240
30	11.7	Lions	1-7-0	16.6	29.6	0.203	0.030	0.233
31	8.8	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	0.026	0.151	0.177
32	5.3	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	0.025	0.082	0.107
			means =	21.8	21.8

The volatility of the overall rankings was markedly less this week. The most any team moved up was 3 slots (Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs). Packers fell 5 spots, no one else close. The Saints still get no love from these ratings. Although their scoring D appears statistically average, they've scored 7 defensive TDs that get credited here to the offense! Life's not fair, Mom! A little surprising to see the Pats ranked on top, though the formula loves that "balance" stuff.

That's it for Week 9, esteemed readers. Remember this is simple math-driven Fun With Numbers, and enjoy. Hopefully you may even glean a pearl of wisdom or two! You can download the spreadsheet here if you wish to play with the numbers. Cheers!

Q&A with a Panthers Blogger

2009-11-10T14:00:00Z

Jaxon here again Falcons faithful from Cat Scratch Reader. If you have any questions I will stop by periodically this week to answer them. Be sure to hit the Rec button so this post remains on top for the week. You can read Dave's answers to questions from my readers here.

I'll try to get some of the obvious ones out of the way:

At 3-5 we haven't given up hope just yet but we are on life-support
The coaching staff has shown this is Jake's team to lead and no matter the effect he is not going to get benched. Yes he's improved his play the past couple weeks but he still seems to present limitations to the passing game which limits the possibility of a comeback when down late in a game
DE Julius Peppers had been playing better but disappeared again last week against the Saints. Who knows if he will show up this week...
The defense is playing better but the secondary gambled too much against the Saints and got burned
I still expect a big crowd this week, after all it is the Falcons! Beating you guys will make some of the hurt go away!

I'm ready for your questions...

Mike Smith to be suspended?

2009-11-10T04:22:27Z

The hub bub is that Mike Smith and his bald assistant(does anyone know his name?) are in line for fines and possible suspension from the league office for behavior unbecoming the NFL. Here is the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BI0uJZqr9Us

As the video shows, Mike Smith definitely wasn't trying to break up a fight between 30 Falcons players and Meangelo Hall. He was telling Meangelo to get back on the ******* field!

Unfortunately, Meangelo had some choice words in order to incense Mike Smith and reportedly called him a "Fat f***!"

It honestly was a major highlight of the season for many of us and hopefully will be a unifying moment for this team if they want to get back into the playoff hunt.

Poll

How will Mike Smith be punished?

Offensive Line Performance

2009-11-06T19:37:08Z

I recently found published stats (Sacks Allowed, Penalties, etc.) for Offensive Linemen at the Washington Post website. The numbers are from STATS, Inc. Here's the main numbers:

Name (Position)	Sacks Allowed	False Start Penalties	Holding Penalties
Sam Baker (LT)	1.5	2	2
Justin Blaylock (LG)	0.5	1	0
Todd McClure (C)	0.5	0	0
Harvey Dahl (RG)	2.5	0	1
Tyson Clabo (RT)	1.0	0	0

They also include Yards from Sacks Allowed, total Penalties (including Personal Fouls, etc.) and Penalty Yards. For an example, here's the link to Harvey Dahl. I also like to use Football Outsiders O-Line stats. Through Week 8, the Falcons are #8 in Adjusted Line Yards (Run Blocking), and #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate (Pass Protection). Their website also gives ranks for ALY in 5 running directions: Left End, Left Tackle, Mid/Guard, Right Tackle, Right End. They are above average in every direction except Left Tackle and Mid/Guard.

These numbers, taken together, seem to imply that Tyson Clabo has been the best performer along the O-Line so far this season. Is he worthy of a long-term extension (he's 28), or is Garrett Reynolds going to be in that spot next year? What should Dimitroff do to improve the middle of the line? I will try to remember to update these numbers at the end of the season.

Professor Frink Wants YOU!

2009-11-04T20:31:20Z

via i38.tinypic.com

Actually, I need your opinions, my good people.

Despite having been happy with my old rating algorithm for some years, I'm not quite as happy these days. I've discovered that when you publish something for all to see, you have a lot less margin for error. As much as I like the simplicity of my spreadsheet, I think I can do a little better.

My main concern is that the existing method overly penalizes winning teams like the Saints, who are outstanding on one side of the ball but mediocre on the other. To rank them in 7th place is IMO something that should probably be addressed. Last year, for example, the Steelers won the Super Bowl with a subpar offense and a great defense. So far this year, 3 of the 4 winningest teams have a below average defense (or offense). If this trend is the new reality in the NFL, I'd rather change than stubbornly stick with something that's worked in the past, but not quite as well now.

At the risk of getting too cute with a simple process, I'm thinking of adding a couple of new variables to the formula. Winning percentage is one measure of a team's quality that is undeniably relevant, as is Point Differential. Rather than weighing offense and defense at 50% apiece, my new mix would be:

Offense (curved, as before), 25%

Defense (curved), 25%

Point Differential per Game (curved), 25%

Winning Percentage, 25%.

Here are what the Week 8 rankings would look like using the new algorithm:

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	DIFF/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Differential Rating
1	93.7	Colts	7-0-0	28.1	13.0	15.1	0.829	0.978	0.941
2	86.0	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0	14.3	0.834	0.962	0.929
3	85.5	Saints	7-0-0	39.0	22.0	17.0	0.995	0.465	0.960
4	78.8	Eagles	5-2-0	29.0	19.0	10.0	0.859	0.729	0.847
5	77.0	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	8.8	0.903	0.488	0.815
6	76.3	Cowboys	5-2-0	28.1	19.4	8.7	0.829	0.695	0.814
7	74.0	Broncos	6-1-0	20.0	13.7	6.3	0.396	0.967	0.738
8	72.8	Ravens	4-3-0	28.4	19.6	8.9	0.839	0.684	0.818
9	71.0	Packers	4-3-0	26.7	19.1	7.6	0.769	0.718	0.780
10	70.4	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4	5.4	0.622	0.772	0.709
11	69.4	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3	5.0	0.589	0.781	0.693
12	65.0	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	5.4	0.521	0.872	0.707
13	62.5	Texans	5-3-0	24.8	21.0	3.8	0.671	0.558	0.646
14	60.3	Giants	5-3-0	26.5	22.9	3.6	0.759	0.385	0.641
15	59.5	Falcons	4-3-0	24.4	21.3	3.1	0.654	0.531	0.622
16	59.3	Chargers	4-3-0	26.4	22.7	3.7	0.756	0.400	0.645
17	57.4	Cardinals	4-3-0	22.4	20.4	2.0	0.539	0.610	0.576
18	54.8	Bears	4-3-0	22.7	21.4	1.3	0.556	0.518	0.547
19	51.6	49ers	3-4-0	21.0	20.0	1.0	0.454	0.647	0.535
20	45.1	Dolphins	3-4-0	25.1	25.3	-0.1	0.692	0.197	0.488
21	40.5	Seahawks	2-5-0	19.3	21.0	-1.7	0.355	0.558	0.423
22	39.2	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6	-3.9	0.115	0.827	0.338
23	34.0	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	-5.8	0.170	0.546	0.270
24	33.1	Panthers	3-4-0	18.3	23.7	-5.4	0.302	0.313	0.281
25	30.4	Jaguars	3-4-0	19.0	25.3	-6.3	0.340	0.197	0.251
26	14.7	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9	-10.9	0.156	0.162	0.126
27	13.7	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	-15.4	0.037	0.207	0.053
28	11.6	Lions	1-6-0	16.1	29.3	-13.1	0.201	0.037	0.083
29	11.1	Titans	1-6-0	16.3	30.1	-13.9	0.207	0.024	0.072
30	8.8	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	-16.4	0.037	0.147	0.043
31	6.8	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	-18.0	0.035	0.081	0.029
32	5.3	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0	-15.3	0.115	0.043	0.054

(I omitted Win% from the table due to space and readabilty considerations, but it does figure into the final ratings.)

Though hardly perfect by any means, this version seems to "smell" somewhat better, at least to me.

Since I publish this for your amusement, kind readers, I would appreciate YOUR feedback on this momentous issue. Do the results seem more realistic this way? Does the added complexity strike anyone as a negative? If so, is that negative outweighed by better results?

Like Linus waiting for the Great Pumpkin, I look forward to any constructive remarks youse guys have to offer. Thanks, everyone!

Ask Hogs Haven: Your Redskins Questions Answered...

2009-11-04T04:06:33Z

Hey Falcons fans...this is Kevin, the Editor over at HogsHaven.com. Tough loss Monday Night, but at least you have a good team and a personnel staff that is not in shambles. Having said, post any questions and I'll answer them for you.

A couple notes:

- DeAngelo Hall will be returning some punts on Sunday, which he hasn't done since 2007.
- John Abraham will probably have 3+ sacks on Sunday. Losing Chris Samuels has been devastating for the Skins, especially since he's the only lineman the Skins have drafted in the first round since 2000. His replacement, Stephon Heyer, an undrafted lineman from University of Maryland, has been getting worked over.
- Skins defense is good, but it gets worn down in the second half since the Skins Offense cannot stay on the field.
- Jim Zorn has lost some of the locker room, so coming off a BYE shouldn't help us too much
- Losing Chris Cooley to a broken foot blows, but Fred Davis should not be ignored. He spent his BYE week in D.C. working on route running and blocking.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 8

2009-11-03T22:59:31Z

via i37.tinypic.com

Brace yourself for some provocative Week 8 numbers. Have fun!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't supposed to be a perfect reflection of the real world, so don't take them too seriously! It is interesting how such a crude algorithm can be as accurate as it is, though.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the population of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale to make them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.3	Colts	7-0-0	28.1	13.0	0.829	0.978	1.806
2	89.8	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0	0.834	0.962	1.796
3	79.4	Eagles	5-2-0	29.0	19.0	0.859	0.729	1.588
4	76.2	Cowboys	5-2-0	28.1	19.4	0.829	0.695	1.524
5	76.1	Ravens	4-3-0	28.4	19.6	0.839	0.684	1.523
6	74.4	Packers	4-3-0	26.7	19.1	0.769	0.718	1.487
7	73.0	Saints	7-0-0	39.0	22.0	0.995	0.465	1.460
8	69.7	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4	0.622	0.772	1.393
9	69.6	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	0.521	0.872	1.393
10	69.6	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	0.903	0.488	1.391
11	68.5	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3	0.589	0.781	1.371
12	68.1	Broncos	6-1-0	20.0	13.7	0.396	0.967	1.363
13	61.4	Texans	5-3-0	24.8	21.0	0.671	0.558	1.229
14	59.3	Falcons	4-3-0	24.4	21.3	0.654	0.531	1.185
15	57.8	Chargers	4-3-0	26.4	22.7	0.756	0.400	1.156
16	57.4	Cardinals	4-3-0	22.4	20.4	0.539	0.610	1.148
17	57.2	Giants	5-3-0	26.5	22.9	0.759	0.385	1.145
18	55.1	49ers	3-4-0	21.0	20.0	0.454	0.647	1.101
19	53.7	Bears	4-3-0	22.7	21.4	0.556	0.518	1.074
20	47.1	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6	0.115	0.827	0.942
21	45.7	Seahawks	2-5-0	19.3	21.0	0.355	0.558	0.913
22	44.4	Dolphins	3-4-0	25.1	25.3	0.692	0.197	0.889
23	35.8	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	0.170	0.546	0.716
24	30.7	Panthers	3-4-0	18.3	23.7	0.302	0.313	0.615
25	26.8	Jaguars	3-4-0	19.0	25.3	0.340	0.197	0.537
26	15.9	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9	0.156	0.162	0.318
27	12.2	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	0.037	0.207	0.244
28	11.9	Lions	1-6-0	16.1	29.3	0.201	0.037	0.238
29	11.5	Titans	1-6-0	16.3	30.1	0.207	0.024	0.230
30	9.2	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	0.037	0.147	0.184
31	7.9	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0	0.115	0.043	0.158
32	5.8	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	0.035	0.081	0.116
			means =	21.8	21.6
		Means may not match until all teams have played the same number of games.

Crazy looking numbers, you say? After kicking the Gamble-Tron 2000 and recalibrating the Frinkometer, they actually make some sense when you consider how the algorithm works.

Look at the Saints, Vikings, and Broncos. Every one of those teams is great on one side of the ball and below average on the other. Mathematically, these 3 teams cannot exceed a Power Rating of 75 as long as they remain below average on that one side of the ball. I'm not saying it's just and fair, but it IS how the math shakes out. If you remove those three turds from the punch bowl, the ratings look a lot more plausible.

Just for fun and a semi-reality check, let's look at teams ranked by Point Differential per Game (DIFF/G), instead. It's a most useful stat that correlates very highly with winning percentage.

Rank	DIFF/G		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G
1	17.0	Saints	7-0-0	39.0	22.0
2	15.1	Colts	7-0-0	28.1	13.0
3	14.3	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0
4	10.0	Eagles	5-2-0	29.0	19.0
5	8.9	Ravens	4-3-0	28.4	19.6
6	8.8	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8
7	8.7	Cowboys	5-2-0	28.1	19.4
8	7.6	Packers	4-3-0	26.7	19.1
9	6.3	Broncos	6-1-0	20.0	13.7
10	5.4	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4
11	5.4	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8
12	5.0	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3
13	3.8	Texans	5-3-0	24.8	21.0
14	3.7	Chargers	4-3-0	26.4	22.7
15	3.6	Giants	5-3-0	26.5	22.9
16	3.1	Falcons	4-3-0	24.4	21.3
17	2.0	Cardinals	4-3-0	22.4	20.4
18	1.3	Bears	4-3-0	22.7	21.4
19	1.0	49ers	3-4-0	21.0	20.0
20	-0.1	Dolphins	3-4-0	25.1	25.3
21	-1.7	Seahawks	2-5-0	19.3	21.0
22	-3.9	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6
23	-5.4	Panthers	3-4-0	18.3	23.7
24	-5.8	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1
25	-6.3	Jaguars	3-4-0	19.0	25.3
26	-10.9	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9
27	-13.1	Lions	1-6-0	16.1	29.3
28	-13.9	Titans	1-6-0	16.3	30.1
29	-15.3	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0
30	-15.4	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1
31	-16.4	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1
32	-18.0	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6

Interesting that the Vikings and Broncos don't exactly dazzle using this yardstick, either. The 4-3 Ravens and Packers are in the top 8 using both methods as well. I'm just guessing, but I betcha Saints fans prefer this latter ranking. What a spread there!

Coming back to Power Rankings, the Ravens rose 9 spots; the Cowboys and Texans rose 6. Teams with the largest declines were the Giants, 9 slots, and Broncos, down 7.

That's all folks! Remember that this is simple, math-driven Fun With Numbers. Feedback is welcome, but please don't comment just to gripe about where your team's rated; the algorithm plays no favorites. You can download the spreadsheet here if you like playing with the numbers. Cheers!