FanPost

Let's Talk Falcons: An In-Depth Season Prediction for 2014

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via projectshanks.com


Hello fellow Falcons fans! The season is finally here, and on Sunday we will get the chance to show the world that 2013 is the past. The Falcons bring a revamped defense and a transformed offense into 2014. But despite this team looking (on paper at least) better than the 2012 NFC Championship team, the pundits seem to believe that we're destined for mediocrity this season.

While 8-8 would not be the end of the world this season, this team's ceiling is much higher. If the key pieces of this team stay healthy (Julio we need you) and Jake Matthews does prove to be the most NFL-ready player in the 2014 draft, there is no reason this team can't win 10 games this year. While there were a multitude of reasons last season went downhill, a primary one is that the team's luck in close games just seemed to evaporate. I expect the team to be better this year and I expect our luck to return, or at least regress towards the mean.

Before I get to the season itself, let's look at the Falcons' three biggest strengths and question marks going into the season:

Strengths

1. QB - Matt Ryan is borderline elite, and I think if the receivers stay healthy and the OL holds up (more on that later) he could finally post a 5,000-yard season and cement himself in that category. To get that respect you've got to earn it, and I think MR2 is ready. Mark him down as one of the best players on the team, and I expect him to finally become the Field Marshal he needs to be this year.

2. Receiving Corps - There was a lot of concern about the loss of Tony Gonzalez, and most of it is warranted. I, however, think the loss was both bad and good. The good is that Koetter will finally get a chance to use his preferred scheme - the 4 Verticals offense. We caught a glimpse of this in preseason game 3, and it looked nearly unstoppable. Julio and Roddy are as good a duo as any in the NFL, but what about Harry Douglas and Devin Hester? Last season Harry showed he can produce when needed, putting up his first 1000-yard season. We haven't seen everything that Hester has to offer, but if he can produce like he did in the preseason, he may be one of our most dangerous offensive weapons. Plenty of teams claim to have a duo as good as good at JJ-RW, but who can claim to have a quartet as good as JJ-RW-HD-DH? Nobody, that's who, if these players live up to their potential.

3. Defensive Line - A perennial weakness of the Falcons' appears to have changed course over a particularly active offseason. While there may not be any truly "elite" players on the Falcons' DL, I think we have an argument for the most well-rounded and deep DL rotation in the league. We have proven run-stoppers in Paul Soliai and Tyson Jackson, young talent in Ra'shede Hageman and Malliciah Goodman, and pass rushers in Jonathan Babineux and Corey Peters. I can already tell that Nolan is salivating at the opportunity to rotate these guys all over the lineup and confuse the heck out of opposing offenses. If the preseason is any indication, the Falcons posted the #5 defense overall and #1 run defense in the league. A lot of that has to do with the improved play of the big guys up front.

Question Marks

1. Offensive Line - I think we all have our fingers crossed that the OL we trot out on to the field this year will be a completely different unit than the one last year. A lot is riding on a few key pieces to help this unit become something much better than the raging dumpster fire it was last year. We need Jake Matthews to be serviceable at LT, Hawley to provide stability at C, and Holmes to show massive improvement over last year at RT. If those things happen, along with the addition of Jon Asamoah (which is a massive upgrade), this unit could be an above average line. If not, well, let's just hope that it doesn't come to that.

2. Pass Rush - The one thing the Falcons' neglected this offseason was adding a true pass rushing threat to the defense. While the Falcons have made Osi Umenyiora into a Designated Pass Rusher and beefed up the DL to attempt to occupy more blockers, they still don't have that elite difference maker. The team will be depending on Nolan to scheme pressure from the LBs, CBs, and Safeties, as well as the emergence of young players (Massaquoi is my pick, but don't sleep on Stansly Maponga) to provide some kind of pass rush this season. Hopefully it will be enough, combined with the improved run defense, to slow teams down.

3. Secondary - The secondary is arguably the biggest question mark on the team because it's very hard to predict how good (or bad) the unit will be this season. Desmond Trufant is a stud, but the team is depending on Robert Alford to take a step forward this season. CB depth is improved with the additions of Javier Arenas and Josh Wilson. William Moore is, of course, always ready, but the team is banking on Dwight Lowery playing well and staying healthy. Otherwise there may be a serious concern at FS, but let's face it: it couldn't be much worse than DeCoud last season. I'd say this unit's ceiling is very high, but it's floor is also pretty low. We should have a pretty good idea after week 1 of how well this unit is going to fare in 2014.

Now, without further ado, on to the season prediction!

WEEK 1 - New Orleans at Atlanta - W

Final Score: Atlanta 28 - New Orleans 24

This is going to be a brutal, down to the wire game. I think NO sleeps on the Falcons' new offense a little too much, and Matt Ryan abuses their weak secondary with Koetter's 4 verticals offense. The OL struggles in pass protection, and the running game while better than last year doesn't quite squeak out 100 yards in this first contest. Jake Matthews allows 1 sack but then plays light's out the rest of the game. Our secondary has a few communication issues and allows a few big plays, but our run defense is suffocating, forcing the Saints to become very 1-dimensional.

Record: 1-0.

WEEK 2 - Atlanta at Cincinnati - L

Final Score: Atlanta 17 - Cincinnati 20

First off, I think the Falcons will be 1-1 going into Week 3. If they lose against NO in week 1, I think they play angry in Cincy and pull out the win. Coming off a victory in week 1, however, I think the Falcons lose a close one in week 2. The OL struggles a bit against a stout defense, but Matthews continues to improve. The run game is better this week, but the Falcons can't seem to get any big plays going. The Falcons run defense continues to be excellent, but a late A.J. Green touchdown pass narrowly costs us the game.

Record: 1-1.

WEEK 3 - Tampa Bay at Atlanta - W

Final Score: Atlanta 35 - Tampa Bay 13

The Falcons rebound from a tough loss in Cincy to put the moves on a Tampa Bay team that simply looks outmatched this week. Matt Ryan has a huge day, carving up the Tampa defense for over 300 yards. The run game struggles against a stout run defense, but the OL's blocking continues to improve. The Falcons 4-verticals offense is on display here, and it looks downright terrifying. Atlanta's run defense surrenders very little, and the secondary finally seems to be "jelling", coming up with a few excellent turnovers. Julio Jones and Roddy White combine for over 200 yards on the day, with Devin Hester contributing an excellent screen pass TD.

Record: 2-1.

WEEK 4 - Atlanta at Minnesota - W

Final Score: Atlanta 31 - Minnesota 20

The toughest challenge for Atlanta's run defense so far, but they rise to the occasion. They manage to contain Adrian Peterson, but not before he is able to make some crazy plays (as he always does). Teddy Bridgewater is starting by now, and he struggles in the passing game. He does however manage one big play to Cordarelle Patterson. However, it's not enough as the Vikings can do little to slow down the Falcons' offense. The run game has a big day, particularly Steven Jackson, who manages over 100 yards. The OL of the Falcons is beginning to play at an above average level, and Jake Matthews begins to show why he is worthy of the #6 pick. The influence of Mike Tice and Bryan Cox is starting to show, as Atlanta begins to really wear teams down by the 4th quarter.

Record: 3-1.

WEEK 5 - Atlanta at New York Giants - W

Final Score: Atlanta 41 - New York Giants 17

This is the game that Matt Ryan really breaks out, with some great pass protection from a now-confident OL. I expect him to shred this defense to the tune of over 400 yards. Julio Jones piles up over 200 yards on some amazing plays. The run game continues to improve, with Devonta Freeman finding some playing time in the second half. The defense continues to improve, particularly the secondary, where they manage two picks off Eli Manning. Really, a game where Atlanta shows the doubters that they can put away teams.

Record: 4-1.

WEEK 6 - Chicago at Atlanta - L

Final Score: Atlanta 31 - Chicago 35

This is going to be a shootout between two of the top offenses in the NFC. Even though there is no reason ATL can't win this game, I think Chicago pulls out a late victory off a big play in the final seconds. The run defense plays lights out as usual, but some miscues in the secondary result in a lot of yards through the air. The Falcons, however, get a lot of yards on the ground. The passing game struggles somewhat to find a rhythm this game, but overall MR2 has a respectable night. It will be very close, and both teams will leave battered and bloodied.

Record: 4-2.

WEEK 7 - Atlanta at Baltimore - W

Final Score: Atlanta 24 - Baltimore 21

This is going to be a tough game in Baltimore, but I think the Falcons squeeze out the win. The run defense shuts down Ray Rice, causing the Ravens to air it out. They have some success with a couple of long completions to Torrey Smith. However, the Falcons playmakers also show up in the run and pass game. I think a late defensive play by the Falcons secondary decides it. At the beginning of the 4th, Atlanta ties it up 21-21 on a great screen pass TD from Antone Smith. Baltimore responds with a long drive all the way down to the ATL 20. On a 3rd a long, they attempt a pass over the middle that is picked off by Willy Mo and returned into Baltimore territory. The Falcons respond by kicking a field goal with less than two minutes to play. The defense pitches a 3-and-out and the dirty birds come away with the W. Don't ask me why I got so specific on this game, I just feel it! Also, we're now officially better than last season! Huzzah!

Record: 5-2.

WEEK 8 - Detroit at Atlanta (London) - W

Final Score: Atlanta 27 - Detroit 24

In London, the Falcons face another offensive shootout. This time, however, the Falcons come out on top. Both QBs have big days, combining for over 600 yards through the air. Although ATL's secondary gives up yardage, they rebound with several great 3rd down stops and a pair of interceptions. The run defense continues to be among the league's best, greatly helping out the secondary. The Falcons' run game actually proves to be the difference here, with the Falcons winning the game on a 10-minute, 85-yard TD drive with a healthy dose of the Three-Dreaded-Monster - SJax, Quizz, and Freeman. Roddy has the biggest day among pass catchers, working out of the slot for well over 100 yards.

Record: 6-2.

WEEK 9 - Bye

WEEK 10 - Atlanta at Tampa Bay - L

Final Score: Atlanta 17 - Tampa Bay 24

The Buc's get revenge for the drubbing ATL put on them early in the season. I think by now the Bucs realize McCown at QB is not the answer, and Mike Glennon is again on the field. They immediately get better results as Glennon does a fine job of making the Falcons' secondary look silly this week. However, the good news is that the Falcons' pass rush actually materializes, getting several key stops. The OL plays better on the whole, but they give up a few sacks to a talented DL and can't manage to get the run game going. Still, a close game against a division rival.

Record: 6-3.

WEEK 11 - Atlanta at Carolina - W

Final Score: Atlanta 21 - Carolina 10

I hate to ever predict injury for a team, but I don't think Newton will make it this far. That OL of Carolina is a catastrophe. They prove it by making the Falcons' pass rush look quite good. While the Carolina D is still very tough, their offense without an OL/WRs (and possibly Newton) is anemic. The Falcons don't have a great day on offense, but they still manage to do more than enough to put Carolina away. The Falcons D on the other hand shuts down Carolina's run game, forcing them to air it out. The secondary feasts, coming up with a few turnovers. If one were to get returned for a TD, the score could easily get more lopsided. ATL's defense definitely appears to have found it's identity: shut down the opposing team's run game, let a skilled secondary make plays.

Record: 7-3.

WEEK 12 - Cleveland at Atlanta - W

Final Score: Atlanta 28 - Cleveland 13

So, I hate Johnny Football. But let's be honest, Cleveland is not going to be good this year, and at some point they will bench Hoyer and put in Johnny Football to sell tickets. He won't be any better, but the good news is we'll all get to watch him get sacked (hopefully repeatedly) by the Falcons defense when he inevitably tries to make plays happen with his legs. The Cleveland defense is good, but their offense can't stay on the field. Falcons win this one handily with a big day from the run game. At this point, Warren Sapp is looking real, real stupid.

Record: 8-3.

WEEK 13 - Arizona at Atlanta - L

Final Score: Atlanta 21 - Arizona 31

Let's just face it: somehow, some way, Arizona has this team's number. Maybe that will change this year, but for now I think the Falcons find a way to lose this game. Arizona's defense is the real deal, and they have some real weapons on offense. That defense manages to shut down our run game, forcing MR2 to pass a lot more. While we do get somewhere on offense, being that 1-dimensonal costs us. An uncharacteristically bad INT gets returned for a TD late in the fourth, but until that point the game is competitive the whole way through. The game begins a particularly rough stretch to end the season.

Record: 8-4.

WEEK 14 - Atlanta at Green Bay - L

Final Score: Atlanta 28 - Green Bay 31

I must admit, after watching Green Bay get carved up by Seattle in that opener, I feel better about our chances in this game. Still, it's cold weather against a tough opponent on the road. This game could go either way, but I feel it will be a shootout that the Falcons lose narrowly. The Falcons manage to shutdown Eddie Lacy and generate a pass rush against a weak OL,but Aaron Rodgers still manages to find open receivers. Matt Ryan responds in kind, carving up a weak GB defense, but comes just short of tying it up when a 50+ yard Matt Bryant field goal is blown just shy of the upright due to harsh arctic winds. Curse this stadium!

Record: 8-5.

WEEK 15 - Pittsburgh at Atlanta - W

Final Score: Atlanta 31 - Pittsburgh 19

I am not sold on Pittsburgh, though I do think they will be an average team. They prove to be just that. Atlanta manages a good game offensively against them, taking full advantage of a balanced run/pass attack that looks immensely improved from early in the season. Pittsburgh does manage to gain quite a bit of yardage, but ATL's defense comes up big when they need to holding the Steelers to only 1 TD and 4 FGs. That's right, 4 field goals. Talk about bend but don't break! Atlanta gets back on track with this win.

Record: 9-5.

WEEK 16 - Atlanta at New Orleans - L

Final Score: Atlanta 17 - New Orleans 20

I think the year that ATL sweeps NO is coming, and it's coming soon (*cough* 2015 *cough*). But it is not this year, at least I don't think it is (I'm perfectly happy to be wrong about this game prediction!). This game turns out to be a defensive showdown with both teams struggling on offense. As is typical of this rivalry, the game comes down to the final minutes. I think ATL contains the run game well, but struggles to cover Graham. In fact, I think ATL's main weakness this year might be covering TEs/WRs over the middle. The Falcons fight hard, but lose on a long field goal as time expires. Saints fans all take a collective sigh of relief, knowing that another loss to the Falcons this season would surely have been too much to handle.

Record: 9-6.

WEEK 17 - Carolina at Atlanta - W

Final Score: Atlanta 27 - Carolina 20

This is a much better game than the earlier matchup. The Falcons are possibly playing for the last Wild Card playoff spot, and the Panthers are trying to avoid getting swept. I think the Falcons come out playing hard-nosed, tough football, ensuing in a brutal matchup against a very motivated Panthers team. The Falcons offense proves to be too much to contain for a whole game, however, as they pull away 27-17 on a beautiful pass to Julio Jones at the end of the 3rd. The Panthers get within a score again on a long field goal mid-way through the 4th, but can't quite catch up. Falcons win, and with the W, may have a chance at the playoffs.

Final Record: 10-6.

This is my crazy, outlandish, completely non-biased opinion. I'd love to hear fellow Falcoholics' views on my prediction, the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and your own predictions!

As always, I hope the Falcons prove me wrong and manage to play even better than my prediction. At the very least, let's just beat the 'Aints on Sunday!

Rise up guys, and go Falcons!

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via www.atlantafalcons.com


<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>