FanPost

Occam's Kangaroo




If you haven't checked out this guy's blog you should. He seems to be kinda like the Nate Silver of the NFL draft. If you don't remember, he was the guy that predicted Paul Worrilow was going to be a beast before anyone else even knew who he was.

Click on over to his site and have a browse there is a wealth of information on many many prospects: http://occamskangaroo.blogspot.com

I will post a few interesting notes:

C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
40 Time: 4.62 Kangaroo Score: -0.748 Agility Score: -0.251
Well, he appears to have extremely average lower body power, slightly below average agility, and speed of the okay-to-"meh" variety. This sort of mediocre athleticism might actually be excusable, if the player had exceptional statistical production, but he doesn't. Don't get me wrong, he was reasonably productive, just not enough to make me perk up and pay attention. It also probably doesn't help that whenever I watched him play, I felt myself slipping into a coma out of sheer boredom. I really don't see anything to suggest that he deserves to be taken before the 4th or 5th round. Still, he will probably be taken fairly early, and many opportunities to start will be given to him. People will see what they want to see, and be eager to say that he is performing brilliantly. If he does end up as a disappointment, I think it will probably take time for people to come to that conclusion, as people will mainly want to see the positive aspects of a high draft pick. I really don't see what makes him any different from his predecessor, the mediocre Rolando McClain. Of course, there are still people who insist that McClain was a real talent, even to this day, and I've largely given up on trying to debate this issue.

Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
40 Time: 4.38 Kangaroo Score: 0.964 Agility Score: 1.026
Shazier is going to put me into an awkward position. Yes, he is an amazing athlete. Yes, his statistical production in college was very impressive. Still, despite all of that, I'm just not terribly excited about him. Every time I watch him play, I just see a guy that makes weak or ineffectual tackles, which is not something I want to see in a linebacker. Then I look at his stat sheet, and I am confronted with somebody who doesn't appear to have any problem racking up tackles. Cognitive dissonance is rattling my mind. I had a similar issue with Bobby Wagner a couple of years ago. The computer loved him, but watching him play just didn't set my panties on fire. So, you're probably best served by ignoring my deranged concerns on Shazier, because the computer thinks he could be a star.

Ha'Sean 'Ha Ha' Clinton-Dix, FS, Alabama Ht: 6' 1.3" Wt.: 208
40 time: 4.58 2nd Gear: -0.02 Agility Score: -0.603 Avg. PD: 7.5
I really don't get the appeal of Clinton-Dix as a draft prospect, and fully expect him to become a disappointment like most of the recent players who came out of Alabama. His Agility Score is too low for me to take him seriously as a free safety, and is more in line with what I expect to see from a strong safety. At the same time, he seems to lack the power to be a strong safety (0.079 Kangaroo Score), where I would hope to see something closer to a 1.000. His college production was also very much of the "meh" variety, in my opinion. I would avoid him altogether, let alone in the 1st round, though he does get points for having a name that is fun to say. Ha Ha, indeed, the joke will be on somebody.

Jimmie Ward, FS, Northern Illinois Ht: 5' 10.75" Wt.: 197
40 time: 4.47 2nd Gear: 0.09 Agility Score: -0.200 Avg. PD: 15.5
I like Jimmie Ward a lot. I'm just not sure what position he should play. Athletically he falls into a somewhat gray area between free safeties and cornerbacks. While I normally place almost no value in a player's results from the bench press, his 9 repetitions does set off some alarms for me. The bench press tends to be a terrible thing to put much stock in, except for weeding out players with abnormally low results. Ward's result was about half of what I would normally expect to see for a safety prospect, and there is seems to be some correlation between this and a player's ability to become an exceptional tackler. Despite this concern, he actually appears to be pretty good when making tackles, though they tend to be of the go-for-the-ankles variety, and this leaves me feeling somewhat concerned about what will happen when he faces bigger and more powerful running backs and tight ends, who might just plow through him. His 0.502 Kangaroo Score, is also only a moderately good/acceptable result for a safety (though quite good for a corner). All of this combined with his relatively small size for a safety (5' 10.75", and 197#) makes me worry about how he will stand up to the punishment. I really have to wonder if he would be better off being used in a cornerback/nickelback role. Still, he has proven to be a surprisingly capable tackler, and has been extremely productive. Part of me would be very tempted to take him in the 2nd round, though it would make me nervous, and probably be a bit of a violation of some of my rules. Either way, he is a very exciting player to watch, and I think he is vastly more interesting than Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix.

Louis Nix, NT, Notre Dame
Kangaroo Score: -0.400 Agility Score: -1.800 TFL: 4.75
Do you remember when Terrence Cody was a hot nose tackle prospect? Do you remember how that turned out? Actually, I don't think it will turn out quite that badly for Nix, but I do expect him to have significant troubles. I'm not really that concerned about Nix's lack of impressive college production, as nose tackles don't tend to be great accumulators of stats. I am, however, mildly horrified by his measurable traits, as his lack of power and agility spells major trouble. I've heard some discussions saying that he could still be recovering from injuries, which might perhaps explain some of this, but I'm not here to give the benefit of the doubt. I am here to doubt. I think Nix will most likely end up being a fairly high draft pick that some team will quickly regret. This appears to be one of those cases where people look at an enormous player (he weighs 331 pounds) from a famous college football program, and they just assume he is actually powerful, even if all of the evidence points in the opposite direction. Much like Santa Claus, I think his physical proportions suggest a high-cookie diet, rather than power. I would nix whatever plans I might have when it comes to selecting him (I had to say it).

Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Kangaroo Score: 1.313 Agility Score: 0.781 Avg TFL: 20
He is an extremely impressive athlete, with proven and consistent production. What's not to like? Not much really. The only criticism I can come up with is his age, as he will turn 24 at the start of the 2014 season. In the end, though, I think he is still the best/safest pass rushing prospect in the draft, and I have a much higher opinion of him than I do of his main rival Jadeveon Clowney. Some will say that he is best suited to play OLB in a 3-4, which I might agree with, but I wouldn't rule out playing DE in a 4-3, as he has the power and reach to survive there, despite his somewhat smaller frame. I see Mack as a potentially very special talent, with the rest of the field lagging quite a few steps behind him. The computer gives him a very solid 1st round grade, and he strikes me as a rather safe bet.

Jadeveon "Bonzo"Clowney, DE, South Carolina
Kangaroo Score: 1.473 Agility Score: -0.276 Avg TFL: 17.5
Yes, he is physically gifted, and did well in college. Despite that, he isn't nearly as freakish or unusual as people are leading us to believe. That doesn't mean that I don't think he can do well. I just think people have become a bit deranged in hyping him. I think some of the maturity/effort concerns are valid, and wouldn't be surprised if it takes him a year or two to adjust to the NFL. Still, the computer gives him a 1st round grade, and I am fine with that. Probably best suited to continue playing as a 4-3 DE, though 3-4 OLB is a possibility too. If I have one gripe about him, which pushes him below Mack, it relates to his speeding tickets, though not for the obvious reasons. If you are going to blatantly accept a car from boosters (because he obviously couldn't afford this car as a college student), you should hold out for something nicer than a Chrysler 300. Yup, I have to deduct some style points for that. Should have gone with something German instead.

Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Arm Length: 35" Kangaroo Score: 1.487 Agility Score: -0.318
So, why are we leaning towards Greg Robinson? Well, it's mainly because we think he has the most room to be salvageable, even if playing left tackle doesn't work out. His arm length, and Kangaroo scores are exceptional, as well as his 10-yard split of 1.68 seconds (so, he's probably quick too). It's only his somewhat below average agility score which gives us pause. Athletically he compares rather favorably to someone like Andrew Whitworth, which wouldn't be a bad outcome. Still, even if he fails as a left tackle, his measurables should still allow him to move to right tackle, where he would appear to be an even better fit, as exceptional agility is less of a requirement here. He could even move to guard, if necessary. Having such fallback plans as to how he could be utilized provides extra security.

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>

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