FanPost

Durst's 2015 NFL Draft - Week Thirteen Risers, Sliders, and Big Board

With Thanksgiving approaching, I did not have time to update my big board, but here are this week's prospects.

Week 13 Risers

1. Leonard Williams, DE, USC:

Not really a riser, but instead he has been my number one prospect every week since last spring, when I wrote about why the Falcons should not trade their 2015 first-round pick in a trade-up for JaDeveon Clowney.

"At 6'5/290, Williams is just as much a "freak" as the 6'5/265 Clowney, and may have less concerns over his motor/desire."

Williams' frame, and skill-set is more similar to Mario Williams and Julius Peppers than Clowney's, and he provides scheme-diversity, having played DE in a 3-4 and 4-3, and DT in a 5-2 and 4-3.

2. Laken Tomlinson, Guard, Duke:

Tomlinson was the only one of the three Duke prospects I was watching that did not disappoint.

At 6'3/330 pounds, Duke redshirt senior OG Laken Tomlinson does not process much agility, even for an interior offensive lineman, and had him as only a fifth-rounder last spring, but he is an ideal fit for a power run game.

While I now view him as just a third-round talent, if I needed a road-grader and an immediate starter, I would rather "reach" for Tomlinson late in the second round instead of taking South Carolina's AJ Cann with a top-50 pick.

I just don't see that much difference.

3. Norkeithus Otis, OLB, UNC:

At 6'1/235, UNC senior "bandit" Norkeithus Otis projects to the NFL as an outside linebacker.

Against Duke, Otis was credited with one four tackles and one sack, but I felt he should have gotten credit for an additional half sack and four tackles seemed low, as he appeared very active.

Statistically, this has been a down year for Otis, who now has only four sacks for the season. Otis in a unique prospect who did a little bit of everything last year, collecting 49 tackles, including 13 for loss with 7.5 sacks, nine quarterback hurries, two forced fumbles, three pass breakups, and an interception.

Entering the season, I had only a fifth-round grade on Otis, who had gotten some "buzz" during the off-season despite only ten career starts, however, I just didn't notice him much despite watching UNC quite a bit in 2013.

The buzz has quieted, and I believe if he would be excellent value if still available in round five.

4. Owamagbe Odighizua, DE, UCLA:

Against USC, Odighizua provided constant pressure, finishing with a pair of sacks.

Odighizuwa received a +9.5 grade from ProFootballFocus.com for his play against USC. Those not familiar, should check out their website. According to PFF, Odighizuwa "notched two sacks, two hits and six hurries in just 35 pass-rushing snaps".

USC RT Zach Banner in particular struggled with Odighizuwa, but so did USC's guards, and LT Toa Lobendahn.

The 6'3/270 pound redshirt senior missed all of last season after undergoing surgery on his hip and entered Saturday night's game with 45 tackles, including 7.5 tackles for loss and three sacks.

While he certainly looks the part, Odighizua does not always play with such intensity. I do not believe he is as dominating a prospect as former Bruin Datone Jones, but have went back-and-forth between grading him as a late second to mid-third round. After watching the USC game, I am once again like him just past the top-50 prospects.

5. Marcus Hardison, DE, Arizona State:

Against Washington State, Hardison registered two sacks, and interception, and a forced fumble. Of coarse, WSU is not the best opponent to judge if a player has NFL-level talent, but I have seen ASU play four or five times, and the one guy that continued to catch my eye was Hardison.

A Dodge-City CC transfer, where he was the #5-ranked JC prospect, Hardison had only five tackles all last season, but now has had back-to-back two-sack games, with eight of his ten sacks coming in the past five games.

The former youth/HS QB is rumored to still run a 4.7 and can throw the ball further the either of ASU's two starting QBs Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici.

Most games, he lines up outside of the RT in ASU's 4-3 defense, but at 6'4/300, he has the prototypical size for a 3-4 DE.

Draft Sliders

1. Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA:

Last weekend, Hundley completed 22 of 31 attempts for 326 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the school's 38-20 win over USC, making Hundley 3-0 over it's cross-town rival, but deeper analysis has me disappointed that Hundley has not been able to take it to the next level after his early success.

Hundley entered the season as my 2nd ranked QB (due to character concerns with Winston)

"2. Brett Hundley, UCLA 6’3/222 R-Jr: Hundley will enter his junior season with 7,914 yards of career total offense, including 6,816 yards, 53 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.

Brett Hundley’s first season starting was arguably the best season a Bruins quarterback has ever had, at least statistically, breaking Cade McNown’s single-season record of 3,470 yards, McNown’s total offense record and Drew Olson’s completion record. Hundley finished the season with 4,095 total yards, 3,740 yards passing and 318 completions.

In 2013, Hundley threw for 3,071 yards and 24 scores, while leading the Bruins with 748 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. His somewhat disappointing encore was lessened after Hundley helped lead UCLA to a 42-12 Sun Bowl rout over Virginia Tech, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 161 yards on 10 attempts against a Hokies defense ranked eighth nationally in both rushing defense and scoring defense.

The biggest knocks on Hundley are that he holds the ball too long and needs to improve how quickly he processes the way defenses attack him.

He reportedly worked hard during the off-season, when Hundley spent time with San Diego's Philip Rivers and Denver Broncos backup Brock Osweiler, who both played for Bruin’s offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone."

As this season progressed, most felt that Hundley had either gotten worse, or simply plateaued, then Hundley admitted to feeling pressure from evaluators and scouts during the season, which he say attributed to him running less and attempting to pass more.

Of coarse, this was what scouts wanted to see, for Hundley to win from the pocket.

Hundley had no known character concerns, so it was surprising when Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel and Thayer Evans wrote an NFL scout said Hundley "was not popular with his teammates". Perhaps some felt he was too focused on the NFL, instead of helping UCLA win. (pure speculation)

In the end, Hundley looks a lot like Johnny Manziel, but less wreckless both on and off the field, but where Johnny was unflappable, frequently Hundley looks shaken.

His style might work at the college level, but Hundley does not consistently succeed in the pocket. Similar QBs are struggling with the transition to the NFL.

2. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC:

Against UCLA, Agholor had only three catches for 24 yards, and was held to a -1.3 average on four punt returns.

Agholor came into the game coming off back-to-back 200+ yard efforts, including a career high 16 catches just 12 days ago, and had a 65-yard punt return for a touchdown vs Washington on November 1st, and 53-yard punt return touchdown earlier in the year against Arizona State.

My pre-season #7 WR, @ 6'0/185 Jr: Agholor averaged 19.1 yards per kickoff return (second nationally) with two touchdowns, while also catching 56 passes for 918 yards and six scores. With Marqise Lee gone, it’s Agholor’s turn to move into the No. 1 role in USC’s passing attack. Born in Nigeria, Agholor had only 14 career receptions as a HS RB, and is still developing as a WR.

Agholor has 85 receptions for 1103 yards and ten touchdowns through eleven games. "Agholor is going to be a polarizing prospect," CBS Sports' Dane Brugler tweeted last month. "God-given athleticism, body control but shaky ball skills."

For me, he has been a fringe first-round prospect since last spring. I have pointed to his lack of experience at the WR position, and reports that he is a hard-worker as to why I believe there is much upside.

After watching him for multiple games through three seasons, (during that time, Aghlor has caught passes from three different quarterbacks, and played for three different head coaches) I am starting to feel there are too many players with more upside than him, and I predict a pick around 40-50 is more realistic for a player that might be an NFL teams #3 WR and primary punt-returner.

3. Jamison Crowder, WR, Duke:

Duke senior WR Jamison Crowder caught six passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's loss to North Carolina. He added a 30-yard punt return.

Last season, the 5'9/175 pound Crowder set a new school record in receptions (108) and receiving yards (1,360).

Despite that, I really was not that familiar with him until his 12-catch, 163 yard performance against Texas A&M in last season's Chick-fil-A Bowl.

TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline wrote over the summer that Crowder was "a prototypical slot receiver for the next level", but was graded by Pauline as only a Round 7 prospect.

Others disagree. NFL.com's Bucky Brooks stated scouts around the league "would be wise to use Pro Bowl WR Antonio Brown as the pro comparison" and called him "one of the most polished receivers in college football".

However, on a night where the similarly-sized Tyler Lockett (Kansas State) caught 10 passes for 196 yards and added over 100 return yards, including a 43-yard punt return for a touchdown, Crowder just does not seem as explosive.

Both players should be able to carve out a career as a punt returner and backup slot receiver, but I feel Lockett is more likely to become a team's third wideout, while Crowder will likely be just a fourth or fifth.

4. Jeremy Cash, Safety, Duke:

I finally got to study Cash, a player who had been recommended to me a while back, but I was not impressed with his play against UNC. Now, the whole Duke team seemed out of sync, but the only time Cash's play stood out was when he was burned for a long pass by Tar Heel's sophomore WR Ryan Switzer.

At 6'2/205, Cash certainly looks the part, and he certainly productive in 2013, when he was a second-team All-American who started all 14 games, registering 121 tackles, 9.5 TFL, four interceptions, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and two QB pressures.

After eleven games this season, Cash has 96 tackles, including 60 solo, and eight TFL. He also has broken-up seven passes, two interceptions, created five QB hurries, and forced three fumbles. He has 3.5 sacks, including a two-sack game against Va Tech.

Cash is also not your typical lightly-recruited Duke football player, as he originally enrolled at Ohio State, and played in five games as a true freshman in 2011, before transferring and sitting out the 2012 season.

Cash has one more season of eligibility, and I think he should return to school, but if he does declare, I would give him a fourth grade. I have only seen Duke three times the past two seasons (2013 FSU, bowl game vs Texas A&M, and now UNC) and will try to study him more.

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>