If there's a truism about the NFL Draft, it would be this: No one outside of the war room of an NFL team knows what that team is going to do until, at best, ten minutes before they do it. Everyone thinks they know exactly what's going to happen, however.
There are hundreds of pundits out there, many of them truly excellent at breaking down prospects and making connections to teams, but their hit rate is maybe 10%. That would be the cream of the crop, in most cases. Prospects bust, teams do unexpected things and chaos reigns. That's the NFL Draft.
That makes the leak of the Cowboys' big board a little startling and a little illuminating. It's a glimpse into the inner workings of an NFL franchise on draft day, as Blogging the Boys noted yesterday.
It also shows how much ratings vary from team-to-team, and how far off the bulk of pundits are. I saw a lot of names linked to the Dallas Cowboys, but very few of them were Travis Frederick, their eventual first round pick. Many pundits had a third-round grade on him. Many, many pundits, including myself, thought Eddie Lacy would be a first or second round pick, as did the Cowboys. He went much later. And so on and so forth.
I suspect we'd see something similar with the Falcons. Our best guesses are often off, and the valuations vary so much by team that you'd have to have a mole in an organization to have the slightest idea of where these players will end up. Look at where the Cowboys put Desmond Trufant!
Your thoughts on the Cowboys' board?