"9. Matt Ryan
After last year's playoff debacle, it's a make-or-break season for Ryan. If the Falcons really do move to a pass-heavy scheme under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, we'll all finally get a definitive opinion on just how good Ryan really is. Right now, he still has that weird "proven winner"/"can't win in the playoffs" dichotomy thing going on, but it's unclear whether he can advance past the above-average four-year run of his career to a new level of performance. If he takes that leap this year, Ryan becomes one of the four best quarterbacks in football. If he remains the same guy it seems like he's always been, the Falcons are stuck guaranteeing the eighth-best quarterback in the game $60 million."
Controversial pick. Part II of the Rankings (with Ryan) linked above. Part I here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8312966/ranking-players-contracts-national-football-league