FanPost

Can Dirk Koetter run a Balanced and Successful Falcons Offense?

The Falcons and Jaguars last year were both run first teams except when trailing or forced to pass in a 2nd or 3rd and long situations, Dirk Koetter hire didn't impress lot of folks outside of Flowery Branch as the Jaguars Offense was ranked 32nd in the NFL last year. In this post lets look at the Mike Mularkey's and Dirk Koetter's Play calling balance(Pass Vs Run) and Success percentage on first downs and third downs when the game was with in a score. There is a difference in personnel between two teams but jump in to the post with an assumption that Jaguars had same or similar talent on offense compared to Atlanta.

First Down(Game with in a score):

Pass%(NFL): Average Pass% in NFL, SPP%: Successful Pass play(>4yards on first down or 40% of Yards to go),SRP%):Successful Rushing Play(>4 yards on first down or 40% of yards to go)

Jacksonville Jaguars(1st Down,Game with in 7 Points)
Year Pass% Pass % ( NFL) Rank SPP % SPP (NFL) % Rank SRP SRP(NFL)% Rank
2007 40.89 45.27 23 56.36 54.36 12 44.65 43.65 14
2008 49.15 45.31 9 56.55 54.03 10 46.00 44.03 10
2009 42.00 43.78 22 52.38 53.73 19 44.83 45.98 17
2010 40.71 44.71 26 56.14 53.17 8 51.20 44.30 2
2011 34.73 44.42 31 40.96 52.92 31
48.08 45.00 11
Atlanta Falcons(1st Down,Game with in 7 Points)
Year Pass% Pass % ( NFL) Rank SPP % SPP (NFL) % Rank SRP SRP(NFL)% Rank
2007 49.05 45.27 10 55.81 54.36 13 42.54 43.65 20
2008 31.09 45.31 31 56.63 54.03 11 39.67 44.03 25
2009 41.35 43.78 23 43.64 53.73 30 43.59 45.98 21
2010 43.45 44.71 19 51.37 53.17 19 42.11 44.30 24
2011 37.91 44.42 27 51.43 52.92 19 39.53 45.00 28

1. Jaguars passed at least 40% of the time in last five years on first downs except in 2011 with Blaine Gabbert as QB. The highest Pass percentage on first down was in 2008 when the Jaguars passed the ball 49.15%.

2. Falcons Passed more than 40% of the time only in 2009 and 2010 under Mike Mularkey. Last year Falcons ranked 27th with only 37% percent passes on first down. This is unacceptable for a team with a 4th year QB and so many weapons in the passing game.

3. Jaguars had more SPP%(successful pass plays %) than the Falcons every year except 2011. This is pretty impressive considering not many people outside of AFC South would even name one Jaguars receiver.

4. Jaguars had more SRP%(Successful Rush Play %) on first downs than the Falcons every year from 2007-2011. This is not surprising as Falcons have a boom(long run) or bust(negative or no gain) Running game, but last two years has been more bust than boom.

Third Downs (Game with in a score):

Pass%(NFL): Average Pass% in NFL, SPP%: Successful Pass play(Third down Conversion), SRP%: (Successful Rushing Play(Third down Conversion)

Jacksonville Jaguars(3rd Downs,Game with in 7 Points)
Year Pass% Pass % ( NFL) Rank SPP % SPP (NFL) % Rank SRP SRP(NFL)% Rank
2007 68.38 75.03 28 47.31 40.77 7 44.19 49.51 24
2008 71.13 74.65 26 37.62 40.08 22 60.98 51.88 5
2009 68.25 76.27 30 40.70 40.03 13 62.50 48.74 1
2010 63.39 76.99 32 39.44 39.44 15 65.85 50.00 3
2011 70.31 77.98 29 36.67 38.12 13 47.37 48.52 16
Atlanta Falcons(3rd Downs,Game with in 7 Points)
Year Pass% Pass % ( NFL) Rank SPP % SPP (NFL) % Rank SRP SRP(NFL)% Rank
2007 78.06 75.03 10 40.50 40.77 15 44.12 49.51 23
2008 75.61 74.65 13 45.16 40.08 7 53.33 51.88 12
2009 86.89 76.27 2 44.34 40.03 9 56.25 48.74 7
2010 84.76 76.99 3 48.20 39.44 3 68.00 50.00 2
2011 84.75 77.98 4 56.00 38.12 2 66.67 48.52 5

1. Jaguars were one of the teams with least Pass% on third downs, this means they were usually in 3rd and short situations. Atlanta however ranked in top 5 for most passing %. This is not surprising as Falcons faced more 3rd and longs than any one in the NFL last year.

2. Falcons in the Mike Mularkey and Matt Ryan Era had better Third down Success % on passing plays compared to Jaguars. Jaguars best SPP% on third downs was in 2007 when the Jaguars offense had a break out year.

3. The Falcons were ranked second in 2011 and third in 2010 for third down pass conversions when the game was with in a score.

4. Jaguars and Falcons both ranked at the top for SRP%(Successful Rush Play %) most of the last 3 or 4 years. The big reason for successful Falcons running game on 3rd downs is Michael Turner, he had a 3rd down success rate of 71% last year when the game was on the line.

Dirk Koetter ran a successful rushing offense on first downs and third downs,the passing offense however was successful on first downs and average on third downs. This is impressive considering the QB and the weapons in the passing game at Dirk Koetter's disposal in Jacksonville. Falcons on the other hand ran an average passing offense and a boom or bust rushing offense on first downs in last 4 years. However the Falcons were top passing and rushing offense on third downs with game on the line.

Dirk Koetter needs to incorporate his successful first down passing and rushing offense while maintaing the top 5 Falcons 3rd down offense.

I personally think Falcons will run 55% on first down and pass around 45% of the time. What do you guys think ?

For Some reason I can't attach a poll. Use comments to vote for what could be pass vs run percentage this year.

1. Pass 45%, Run 55%.

2. Pass 55%, Run 45%.

3. Pass<40% and Run >60%.

4. Pass >60% and Run <40%.

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>

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