Moves The Falcons Will Not Make: Trading Michael Turner
by Dave Choate on Feb 9, 2012 8:00 AM EST
in Falcons Talk
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The second in our occasional series of moves the Atlanta Falcons will not make. Today, it's a trade of running back Michael Turner.
Look, I've indulged in this one, too.
On paper, trading Michael Turner now would accomplish many things. It would net the Falcons young players or draft picks, both of which they could use. It would ensure that he was not in Atlanta when the inevitability of being a 30-year-old running back who runs like a battering ram and physically resembles one finally catches up with him. It would allow the Falcons to more easily turn the corner from the smash n' more smash offense they've skillfully run for four years to the pass-happy attack sure to come.
It won't happen, though. The Falcons have publicly committed to Turner, he's a Mike Smith favorite and a guy who fuels the Falcons' ground game. The fact that he's starting to hit his decline phase is worrisome, and the likeliest outcome is that the Falcons let him play out his contract as a Falcon. He's meant a lot to the franchise, and as much as we all cringe thinking that might be a reason, it is a reason.
On a more official basis, here's two good reasons the Falcons won't trade him. Well, decent reasons.
- You can't get value for him. Running backs are quite simply not a commodity in today's NFL. When teams are digging deep and finding guys like Arian Foster and Pierre Thomas as undrafted free agents, and when more and more teams are leaning heavily on committees, teams are less willing to burn picks to get backs. When you consider that he's about 30 years old, has had noticeable second-half drop-offs the last two seasons and offers little in the way of pass-catching upside, teams simply aren't going to give up more than a fourth rounder for him, unless they're desperate. Getting a third round pick for Turner might be worth it at this point, but I doubt the FO sees it that way.
That brings us to our next point. - The team still believes in Turner. The Falcons will say they want to use Jacquizz Rodgers more, and they probably will. They will say they want to pass more, and they probably will. But if you think Michael Turner is getting less than 250 carries without a busted leg, you're insane.
Mike Smith likes a power running back. He likes to be able to batter down defenses and make them respect the run. Turner's been his guy for four seasons and remains a load to bring down, and a guy whose booms are so awesome that it's easy to forget when he busts. Ultimately, the fact that Turner can be a true, reasonably-effective workhorse back.
So while his role will diminish, he's an integral part of the team's plans. That won't change unless they draft a back like David Wilson come this April.
So that's why I believe Turner's here to stay in 2012. What say you?
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If we could get a 2nd (unlikely) or 3rd, I would love to see us trade him and then draft David Wilson
Keep dreaming...
At that rate, why not ask for a 1st rounder? Maybe we could trade Turner for a top-5 pick and take Richardson! =P
I'm willing to be surprised
But I seriously doubt Turner’s going anywhere.
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Perhaps the Falcons aren't actually going somewhere, either.
So Dave, let’s plan a special trip, China, Alaska, Tibet, Brasil, you name it. The one thing we’ll need is an experienced guide. We would most likely want a guide or a group of guides who had BEEN THERE BEFORE. Regardless of decisions of individual nature, guidance and steerage are required for a successful trip and repeatedly, the Falcons appear to be on a trip lacking in guidance AT CRITICAL MOMENTS. Friends from previous jobs may be a weakness, extending contracts for personal reasons may be another.
I suspect there is a missing link to a guide that’s been to a superbowl, Arthur’s comments about the goal being the superbowl don’t appear to be realized in some coaching and personnel choices. We do need a guide to the playoffs.
by Merle T Cornpone on Feb 11, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Seems like y'all are jumping off the Quizz train.
I think he’s gonna break out once we solidify our blocking scheme and get the worlds best blocker back in Ovie. Turner isn’t going anywhere but downhill to the inzone. Plus he’ll be playing his final year of his contract. Our running game is still a strength on this team, why mess with it? Our weakness on offense is clearly blocking and pass protection.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 9, 2012 9:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
He needs to be better than just a good blocker if we are planning on paying him over $3 mil...
"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham
by sportsfan4life2012 on Feb 9, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
apparently
The Patriots are looking to Trade Aaron Hernandez for a 2 or a 3 unless key players are offered. Seeing as How they need upgrades in the Secondary why Not try a Sign and Trade with Grimes/Decoud? Or why not A Sign and Trade with John Abraham seeing as how they are looking for pass rusher? Or maybe even trade Michael Turner to them for Hernandez and a draft pick (least fan of that one though). I don’t know maybe this is our chance to get Tony Gonzalez’s replacement without using draft picks and if we play it right we might be able to get one of the Four picks that New England has in the first two rounds. Makes sense to me.
by falcons101 on Feb 9, 2012 9:11 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Grimes does fit the Pat mold well.
Man I’m gonna miss that guy. Nolan has already singled out the Secondary publicly so I’m expecting personel changes bigtime. Grimes is out the door already.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 9, 2012 9:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Trade Hernandez?
Really? I havent heard anything and I’m in the greater BOS area.
That doesn’t make any sense. They’re more likely to franchise and trade Welker.
by widderslainte on Feb 9, 2012 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
teams are not looking2 sign & trade players
All players u listed are free agents besides turner.if pats want 1 of them guys they wld sign them themselves.
Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style
by turnj35 on Feb 9, 2012 9:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bleacher Report
Looks like they are interested in improving the Secondary or increasing the amount of draft picks they own.
by falcons101 on Feb 9, 2012 10:50 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Sign and trades are more costly in the NFL that's why you never see it
You don’t even see it as much as you used to in the NBA, but that’s where you’d usually see it.
decoud
Because they are smart enough to realize the talent DeCoud has—I don’t see them taking Abraham…seems like NE dumps players a year before their skills diminsh (Richard Seymour)…interesting what they do with Brady when he is 37. Not busting on you, just not a DeCoud fan (can you tell)…he is only marginally better than Chris Houston…what a BUST of a draft choice he was….he was here for what, 2 hours//
I love this idea...
Aaron Hernandez would be a huge asset to the organization.
by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Feb 9, 2012 1:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
turner is not the problem
the guy got what 1300-1400 yards rushung behind a bullsh!t OL last yr,do any of u guys
really think we need to blow up our offence, I would like to see more creative running
plals with 2 & 3 back sets someone that knows what hes doing should be able to do that
also u know how predickable the offence was with MM, Let them get our line fixed on both sides of the ball
work on o-line in FA
See what the FA brings for O-Line help and go from there. If a Nicks or Grubbs gets signed, and possibly Gaither, then Turner is still a viable runner. If the O-line does not improve in FA, then think about trade to bring a higher draft choice for O-Line help. Running backs aren’t that hard to find, perhaps Ryan Grant, that has power and can turn the corner, or someone in that mold in the draft.
I'm thinking that Gaither will be re-signed by SD
If we want to roll the dice, We can get Mcneil in FA. I hear that the Chargers are letting Mcneil walk because they don’t think his neck is healed from last year
If Halladay, Lee, and Hamels all break their arms while playing tag in the clubhouse, We'll be set
by suicide bunting is a sin on Feb 9, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
No one will give use anything for Turner
Once the trade word gets out, people will wait for us to cut him. I doubt we’d see better than a 6th. Hell, LaDainian Tomlinson got cut.
For 2012, the OL is a bigger issue than Turner’s age/performance.
I can see the team releasing Turner to use him salary (assuming the cap hit works) in FA, and drafting a replacement power back.
OL and Turner
I agree you won’t get much for him. He has had a lot of miles since he has been here—admittedly he was underused in SD. I agree with comment that Smith likes a power runner and Rodgers should develop into a Warrick Dunn-type of back. I’m a Snelling fan, but he is probably gone….what happens to Ovie? Love him, but alot of money to block. Anyway, Turner deserves our love and respect for some solid seasons….it just seems like at times, he goes down at first contact (even running into back of OL)….give him a huge hole and he goes and will run through some DBs….but a lot of backs can do that.
our front office usually makes 1 big spash a yr
In free agency..I wld love 4 that2 b a ol or de or dt..depends on how our coaching staff views our backups..do they think we have players on our roster that’s ready2 step in & show out? They have a plan in place I’m sure.if I had2 guess tho I c them bringing in a big name de like a super mario who can play a 4-3 or 3-4 & he is dominent. He wld lockup 1 side of the field4 yrs 2come.that’s what u spend big money on not maybe good players like a ray edwards or a d.robinson.hell I’m all 4 throwing a 2yr deal @predator.him on one side & mario on other equals pain 4 any qb.no more double teaming abe which by tha way made him less effective than he really is.
Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style
by turnj35 on Feb 9, 2012 10:16 AM EST via mobile reply actions
This was hard to read...
by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Feb 9, 2012 1:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I predict this will be one of the more trade happy off seasons, especially draft day
Anything is possible. There’s a number of teams who have an advantage in the draft by having a good number of additional picks. The way I see it, not having very many draft picks (like Atlanta) is also a slight advantage because it makes you a good target by those teams who are looking to unload. Those teams looking to unload may scan Atlanta’s roster and if there’s a player they really like they’ll make us an offer that’ll land them that player along with some future draft picks, its called stockpiling it never ends (see New England). This will happen, the phones will be busy for us on draft day and I’m sure Turner’s name will come up a few times or more.
Id like to see us stockpile picks for the future
Since our vets would be on the decline and our best players would be getting ready to hit their prime. We could use the extra picks to trade and hopefully build a dynasty.
by pierre02 on Feb 9, 2012 12:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
turner is still a beast
My only problem with turner is his hands. Mainly turner’s lack of production on ypc was due2 predictability.every1 knows if he is in 8 out 10 times its a run & the other 2 times u know its a pass bc of down & distance.when he can catch a dump off pass he takes2 long2 accelarate4 a good gain.alas the oline did him no favors as well & he still ran for 1300 plus.
Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style
by turnj35 on Feb 9, 2012 10:33 AM EST via mobile reply actions
turner is 1 of the hardest backs in league2 tackle
He runs hard even with the groin issue which is painful I know bc I had a groin issue b4..It has slowed him some I’m sure but he is a top 10 back in this league right now in my opinion. I only have foster,shady,murray,peterson,johnson,rice ahead of him if I had2 use the matt ryan test.lol
Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style
by turnj35 on Feb 9, 2012 10:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't see them see them trading Turner at all either.
You can definitely make the Superbowl without a dynamic rushing attack, but you have to possess a superior passing attack and above average defense. I think even if our greatest strength isn’t our rushing attack it is definitely serviceable when looking at other teams options.
2011-2012
Superbowl:
New York Giants (32nd Team Rushing)
New England Patriots (20th Team Rushing)
2010-2011
Superbowl:
Pittsburgh Steelers (11th Team Rushing)
Green Bay Packers (24th Team Rushing)
2009-2010
Superbowl:
New Orleans Saints (6th Team Rushing)
Indianapolis Colts (32nd Team Rushing)
2008-2009
Superbowl:
Pittsburgh Steelers (23rd Team Rushing)
Arizona Cardinals (32nd Team Rushing)
2007-2008
Superbowl:
New England Patriots (13th Team Rushing)
New York Giants (4th Team Rushing)
2006-2007
Superbowl:
Indianapolis Colts (18th Team Rushing)
Chicago Bears (15th Team Rushing)
Ron Artest = Ron (sm)Artest - He Is The Most Interesting Man In The World
by JoshChildressAfroIsCure4Cancer on Feb 9, 2012 11:40 AM EST reply actions
Only way I am cool with keeping MT
Is if his carries are knock down tremendously. It should be MT 34% Quizz 33% and the 3rd option 33%. Equal shares also allow DK to implement a wider variety of looks.
by pierre02 on Feb 9, 2012 12:10 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I Agree
We should go to running back by commite, I was thinking about drafting wilson but then I thought why can’t quizz carry the load, so I’m thinking we let quizz get majority or carries with snells and turner spelling him in situations to keep defense off balance, last year wen quizz was in the game we knew it was pass or pitch but why we got DK hopefully hell have more creativity
by Nedk23 on Feb 9, 2012 12:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I disagree
If we decide to give Quiz and Snelling more touches, they had better perform better with the ball (less yards per carry and catch than Turner). Otherwise it is foolish taking the ball away from your most productive back.
"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham
by sportsfan4life2012 on Feb 9, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
I hope not
given Smith new found penchant for the screen, let me forecast how this will go. Turner in, run, midget in, screen.
We need a starting back that is mufti-dimensional.
Agree
Mike Smith can’t help but be predictable. If teams see Turner in on 3rd down their going to assume it’s a run. Even if it is a screen to MT he isn’t shifty enough to pick yards unless it’s 3rd and short. I’d prefer drafting a RB late and use MT mostly for goal line situations.
by pierre02 on Feb 9, 2012 2:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
In big agreement with point number one, Dave
Heard a stat on the radio the other day via Dave Archer for Turner: for runs LESS than 15 yards (i.e., not breakthrough runs), he was 54th out of 56th in the league in yards per carry. Maybe this is because of the Line, or because of scheme, or he’s just wearing down, but I don’t see other teams too willing to pony up a decent draft pick for the guy unless Al Davis comes back from the dead.
How many 15yarders do you see him put up?
This is a brutally unrealistic stat.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 9, 2012 2:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I may not have explained the stat fully
Turner had 1340 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. On paper, that looks decent. But the eye test last year said that he’d routinely run 2 yards, 1 yards, no gain, for a loss, and then at some point in the game break off a 60 yarder, so he’d finish with 100 rushing yards but most of it came on one carry.
The stat looks at how he runs on non breakaway runs – not very well. I don’t know why they chose 15 yards as the magic marker, but that’s all I got.
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