Discussing The Falcons Draft Strategy
by Dave Choate on Feb 8, 2012 2:00 PM EST
in Editorial
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PrintPlease forgive the outages today.
As a token of my appreciation for fighting through them, here's a discussion post. You guys and girls love those, right?
It's a pretty simple question I'm posing. Will the Atlanta Falcons draft to fill needs—say left tackle, defensive end, backup quarterback—or will they go for the best player available? Previous drafts under the current brain trust have been built more around filling need than pure BPA, but I think that may change a bit in 2012. You're welcome to disagree.
I recognize, as many said when I posed this question on Twitter last night, that there's a lot of off-season still to come before we hit the draft, and that could significantly change things. Factor what you assume will be the outcome of free agency into your comments, if you would, and we'll go from there.
Enjoy.
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Dave
why do you think they will change their strategy?
More out of necessity than anything else
Admittedly I’m reading some pretty weak tea leaves here, but it looks to me like the second round will be a little bit a dead zone for line talent, unless the Falcons want to reach or scuttle down a bit. I think they’re more likely to find skill positions players that might not be immediate needs—David Wilson, Dwayne Allen—than guys on the line.
That’s doubly true if they sign guys like Mathis and/or Grubbs/Nicks.
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And need drafting has got us what?
If it’s true we’re still need drafting, the first few draft picks will be lineman, mostly offensive. Hopefully we won’t pass over obvious star talent in that regard.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Best Potential Starter Available
And by “Starter”, I mean snaps.
Alot depends on free agency
TD is a saavy guy and will find a way to sign some guys for the OL and DL. I would not be one bit surprised if there was an unforseen cut or trade in order to free up cap space. Last year’s cut of Michael Jenkins definitely caught me by surprise so something like that can happen again this off season. I’m hoping we go with the best player available. When AP was drafted by the Vikes they had just signed Chester Taylor to a big contract so they didn’t have a RB need but look how that has turned out.
Nope.
Stay away from O-line early. TD hasn’t exactly hit home runs with the line picks and we still have Jackson, Reynolds, Johnson, and Hawley all of whom haven’t fully developed. Give those guys a full off season and I’m sure you can find 1-2 starters in that bunch.
Sign Bell away from Buf if you must and draft a TE early. If Harry goes, get another receiver. Offense, offense, offense. The defense is already decent and can withstand the departure of Grimes and Abe. With Nolan’s teachings I’m sure they can do damage under scheme.
"NLDS or bust" - Bobby Cox
We don't have to continue to settle Atlanta. We're better than that.
I'm worried bout O line , and DE the most.
I think it will be difficult to address our O-line needs in the offseason. No draft picks available to get anyone who could contribute in 2012-13. There are also not many quality free agents available for the o-line this year. The other issue is that many many teams are trying to fix their own O-lines this off-season…(Dallas, Chicago, Us, and of course New Orleans all want Nicks.) A few other teams need left tackle and pass rush upgrades as well. Seems like a lot of teams are in need of the same peices that we are this next season, which will make it harder for us…so…Unfortunately, I thank it is going to take something drastic to correct all of our needs. In fact, I’m not sure it is even going to be possible. There are too many holes this coming year and not enough pieces to go around the NFL. Hope we don’t regress now that we have shiny new OC&DC to play with.
I would take Abe and McClure back or focus FA signing on a stud DE and LT. Then, pray someone steps up at right guard. The rest of the issues can wait or be drafted.
Anyone got any points of view to make me feel better about this offseason?
All I know is that our defense will be better.
Will be lose Abraham? Probably. Will our pass rush be better? Definitely. How Nolan will do this, I am not sure. Can he move Sidbury from that plateau he has hit? Will Dunta be better covering man on man? Too many questions not knowing the detailed history of Nolan and what his thought plan will be.
by Bubba, Lower Forty on Feb 8, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Most big hits by position in 2nd Round - Super Bowl Era
Here is the link from the article I took the following information from. It’s interesting to look at. I just wanted to see what positions had the best “hit rate” from the article to see where our best shot of getting a quality player at what position might be in the 2nd round. Discuss / and / or Flame away. Of course all of this will be predicated on what we do in Free Agency prior to the draft, but I thought it was a neat piece to our decision making toolbox.
Best Hit Rate by position (includes honorable mentions):
LB = 12
RB = 8
WR = 8
QB = 6
OL = 5
DB = 4
TE = 3
DT = 1
DE = 1
K / Special Teams = 0
Looks like good LB & WR have been the best bets out of the 2nd round from the list compiled by the article.
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
That said I think we'll draft for need as has been our M.O. in the past few drafts
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
We have good linebackers so based on the hit rate above....
might not hurt to get us a good young 3 down running back in the 2nd unless a great TE falls to us. We have to start preparing for replacing Turner and Gonzalez. I think we pickup linemen in free agency.
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
Once we resign/sign Free Agent, the best player available (other than QB). CB/LB/DE may be a tie breaker depending on what happens with Grimes/Lofton/Abe. That said (and as I said yesterday):
Forte – pick 44
McCoy – pick 53
Ray Rice – pick 55
MJD – pick 60
Frank Gore – pick 65
by widderslainte on Feb 8, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed....Yeah good running backs can be had in this round
but if there is a stud CB/DB/DE on the board it’d be hard not to grab one…but the hit rate on GOOD running backs is hard to ignore.
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
I say hybrid philosophy prevails
best player available at position of need….THERE I’ve successfully straddled the fence!
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
Absolutely
But there’s no point in taking a LB if we resign Lofton or CB is we resign Grimes, for example.
by widderslainte on Feb 8, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
BPA all day
Talents wins in this league. If we can address a need with the BPA then that’s great. Hell Ill even taking a slight reach to grab a player for a need. They have to have"starter" quality though. No more potential starters or diamonds in the rough(since TD misses on those anyway) unless a prospect slips.
Another aspect is that FA is before the draft this season. So we will have a better view of the direction they will go as the draft comes closer.
So TD missed on Corey Peters, Sidbury, D. Franks, and Bosher?
Peters starts, Sid should’ve gotten more snaps, Franks looked great towards the end there, and post-bye Bosher was pretty darn good.
Working as intended, imo.
Say what you want to say, think what you want to think, but there is a method to my madness.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Feb 8, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
And the jury is still out on Jackson, Hawley, Johnson
I think a “real” offseason with a new OC/OL coach will help our young linemen. I hope I’m right. We have the TALENT to be Super Bowl Champions, we just haven’t been getting the CONSISTENT PRODUCTION needed from said talent.
I’d personally like to see us go after DeCouds replacement in Free Agency, bring back Abe, Lofton, and Douglas. Grimes is a toss up to me, love the guy but not sure he is a necessity. I’d like to see us let Weems walk and try to get Joe Adams (Arkansas?) to replace him, that kid is an artist with the ball in his hands.
by FLA_Falcon on Feb 8, 2012 5:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Peters was projected as a 3rd RD pick and was drafted in the 3rd RD. Sidbury was projected as a 2nd RD pick and was drafted in the 4th. Franks was projected as a 2nd RD pick and drafted in the 5th. Bosher was projected as a 7th RD pick and drafted in the 6th. These are not diamonds in the rough, these are guys that slipped in the draft or drafted pretty much where they were projected.
Projections should have nothing to do with that.
Diamonds in the rough are players who are drafted late because people think they’re not worth a high pick, but end up playing like a high pick should.
If a player is projected to be picked in the 7th, and he’s picked in the 7th, but has a surefire ticket to the Hall of Fame now, then by what you’re saying, he’s not a diamond in the rough?
Say what you want to say, think what you want to think, but there is a method to my madness.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Feb 8, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
As a GM
when your looking for diamonds in the rough you are not drafting 7th RD projections in the 7th RD. When your looking for diamonds in the rough you are drafting guys in the 5th thru 7th RD that were not projected has draft picks, in the hopes that they will develop in to diamonds. Drafting a 7th RD pick that was projected there is not a risk. Drafting for diamonds is a risky venture because you are hoping the guy turns out to be more than anyone expected. Projections are based on scouting reports and college performance so I’m not sure how projections should have nothing to do with it. GM’s all across the league project where guys are going to get drafted, that is how you set up your board for Christ sake.
Yes you are.
You’re talking about taking risks, not finding diamonds in the rough. What you’re talking about is gambling. (In before whole draft is a gamble.)
You don’t draft players that would go undrafted. You sign them after the draft is over. Why waste a pick on someone that wouldn’t be drafted anyway? That’s wasting a draft pick, especially when, in the grand scheme of things, they don’t pan out 99% of the time.
Finding someone late that turns out to be a superstar is what finding a diamond in the rough is. “Diamond in the rough” in this sense is finding a star in the muck, or finding a star in an area where stars generally aren’t found, which is the later rounds of the draft or outside of the draft.
For instance, Jessie Tuggle went undrafted. That’s finding a diamond in the rough because he wasn’t projected to be any good coming out of college and he was a fantastic LB.
You draft every pick in the hopes that they’ll develop into “diamonds”, so really, your picks are who you think gives you the best chance of developing a star. If it’s a 6th rounder in the 6th round, then that’s what it is. Wasn’t Bosher projected to be undrafted? We took a big risk on him, and he looks like a good pick to me.
Every GM’s draft board is different. How many had Bosher on their board? Who determines who should be drafted where? I think one thing people need to start understanding is that not every draft pick is going to pan out. That’s the nature of the business, even if you have the best talent evaluators in the world, because the players are people, too, and stuff happens to them.
Say what you want to say, think what you want to think, but there is a method to my madness.
If you're a fan of the Falcons, or if you want to chat it up with some Falcons fans, sign up here, share your opinion, and get to know some great fans of the Falcons!
by Caleb Rutherford on Feb 9, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah but what about
James, Shillinger, Bierman, Adkins, and Owens. It’s also the players he drafts. He could take more chances than he does.
by pierre02 on Feb 8, 2012 8:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with you Dave.
It only makes sense to go BPA in this draft. Our needs can only really be addressed in FA because of the value of our pick. Does anyone really believe we are gonna get a DE, CB, LT that can immediately make an impact with the 55th pick? Traditionally there are only 2 positions of real value that late in the draft are TE,OG or RB. It’s likely we do not pick an immediate starter on OL as that thing needs some experienced help. Since we just picked up Quizz I don’t see us making that move either, maybe if we lose Snelling. That leaves tight end which at the end of the 2nd round TE should be the best player available. I promise you guys our Pass rush, OL and secondary will be fixed through FA this year. Mark my words.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 8, 2012 5:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Colby Fleener, TE, Stanford. I stand by my vision.
I’d like to have Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas in the 3rd. 5th, 6th, and 7th go after LB/S depth
by FLA_Falcon on Feb 8, 2012 5:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yeah he reminds me of Cruz
His teammate Jurius Wright also could be in play.
by pierre02 on Feb 8, 2012 8:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Fleener will be gone
by the time the Falcons pick in the 2nd. Unless they trade up, which seems very unlikely given they have no ammunition to do so.
by dom on Feb 9, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
Says who??
Still quite a few factors that can adjust how other teams draft: needs, FA signed/resigned, FA left to test the market, trades, showing at combine, etc. Some of the top 3 or 4 TE’s will end up in the 3rd (probably not Fleener) and I like us taking a RB in the second.
I to agree that we will go BPA considering what we need: immediate help on both lines, which would best be addressed in FA and RB/TE with TG definitely gone after this season and MT likely gone after this season.
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
I agree. We cannot trade up any more. Trading for a later 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder
is my preference. We should pick up one of those draft picks we gave up from trading up last year. That’s about all I can say until after we begin signing FAs. Has any team started re-signing their own FAs yet?
Unless it's a player trade
I assume you can package a current player for draft picks as well. So that option is on the table too I’d say. But I don’t see anyone on our current roster that we WOULD trade getting more than a 3 – 7th round pick.
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
This years 2nd
and next years 2nd and maybe a 5th for the LT that guards Ryans blindside for the next 12 years would not be such a terrible thing IMO.
I have to disagree. That's too much considering
the number of holes we have and we just made a huge trade last year. We can’t afford to assume that we have the necessary pieces with guys like Johnson, Hawley, Sidbury, Jerry, Reynolds, and so on. We don’t know what they can do yet so by giving up draft picks we essentially give up their possibly more talented replacements.
OK you disagree...
that is your right. We might not know what the guys you mentioned can contribute but my guess is this coaching staff has a pretty good idea. Time will tell, I don’t think any of us actually knows what will happen in draft or FA. My opinion is to acquire a much needed LT if the price is right…I’m not really looking for approval. I’m quite sure this organization has done a few things that you as well as some others in hindsight disagree with.
you're
Some things I didn’t agree with that didn’t work out and others that did. There’s a reason why, other than coaching, there are perinial playoff teams like GB, NE, and NY. They continue to add to their stable of players.
by Fear Me on Feb 8, 2012 7:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Every team adds to the stable.
Some teams just have more successful outcomes. This roster is close to being complete IMO, I believe Hawely is our starting center. I believe Sidbury will play a larger role this season and I believe Mike Johnson is the future at RG. With that being said, if you can just sure up that LT position I like our chances going forward. Heck I even believe Dunta will finally get a chance to play football the way he plays best. Nolan will find a way to get the best out of Sid. Abe don’t wanna leave he’s already said that so he’ll be willing to give a discount.
If we could get Kalil then yes
But since the top 3 LT’s will be gone by pick 20 even if we did we wouldn’t be able to grab one. If anything thay should have been the move last year.
by pierre02 on Feb 8, 2012 8:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I can't see how this could happen
The Falcons had to give up a truckload just to move from the tail end of the first round to the top five last year and grab JJ. How much more would it take to move up from the tail end of the second round to the top half of the first round where you’d find a quality LT prospect? Probably the entire draft, and part of next year’s. That would be crazy, especially given how our past moves into the first round to grab an LT have panned out (Sam Baker, I’m looking at you).
by dom on Feb 9, 2012 1:56 AM EST up reply actions
Marcus McNeil
is said to be getting waived by the Chargers. Anybody know any details on this guy? Injury prone? 28 years old.
I think he is done
Was great before serious neck and back injuries
Yeah,
maybe he get’s a shot I don’t think he is retired or anything but from what I remember hearing it was a very serious injury.
10 million dollar number on a guy the bolts aren't sure can pass his physical
He’s a good player and a massive T, 6’7" 336 lbs but unless he’s gonna sign a much lower contract, I doubt we see him.
We know that but does HE(meaning his agent)know that?
By the time he figures that out we may have gone in a different direction. Once players get to that level, it sometimes takes a little time to realize they better just take that job.
I’d really worry about a guy that big with back and neck problems.
I know u were just asking for info, just giving my 2 cents
If this guy could pass his physical and could be signed to a sensible amount, he’d be worth the risk, as long as you had a decent backup and it seems that we do. But I really doubt we go for him. He’s a damn good tackle. Helped Rivers string together some solid seasons.
Im Hearin Different Things
alot of mock drafts at first was showin us tryin for a TE, alot of talk at that point pointed towards Stanford’s Coby Fleener, which i was really happy to hear. I watched a couple Stanford games and was really pleased with what i saw, ive heard o-line as a possibility which that i feel can either be addressed either within what we already have or thru free agency, i agree with most ppl saying a 2nd round draft pick on an o-lineman would not benefit us rite away and we’re a team poised to win now. Then now im hearing David Wilson, i havent followed him closely but im hearing good things from everyone on here about him. Personally I feel we should draft for BPA. Ive always been a fan of drafting Fleener if he is availible, i dont know why that talk has died down unless they think he will already be taken by that point. Either way if he is availible I would love to see us take him and let him be groomed by TG. Seein what New England did the past couple of seasons with their tight ends that would be an awesome sight to see if we can clear up the oline. havin roddy and julio on the outside and them inside, that would be well use your imagination. im takin away from the defensive side, but i havent seen much said about drafting defense, hopefully the new scheme will fix most of that and players we resign and sign can straighten that out
Trade next 5 1st Round picks to the Browns and get RG3 and trade Matt Ryan for some players.
Hello NFL teams, are you in need of a SB ring. Is your 9-7 or 10-6 team that barely slipped in to playoffs needing some help, well, beat the Falcons and you are guaranteed a SB berth!
Lines, lines, lines
Assuming we are able to keep Lofton and Grimes, I’d seriously be fine if we got to training camp and our entire draft and free agency period were spent addressing nothing but positions along the offensive and defensive lines. You get great lines on both side, and your team takes a huge step forward. That’s true of any team (IMO where you should start building), and I think it’s especially true of ours where we have so many great skill positions in place.
by cheshire falcon on Feb 8, 2012 10:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
You are correct
If you want better secondary play and tighter coverage schemes,put some stress on some QBs.If you want better WR and QB play,stretching the field, route mapping that creates space,protect your QB.
I think it will be BPA
Because I think the Falcons are going to surprise a lot of us in free agency with just how many moves they make. And by the time the draft rolls around, many of us will feel a lot more comfortable with thenew-look roster and that the new coaches will get a lot more out of the talent already on it. TD knows he doesn’t have a whole lot of ammo in this year’s draft to find starters. He needs to get free agency right. I expect a lot of activity. Surprises in both players added and let go.
Question
How many starters (by that I mean this year) do you expect TD to glean out of this draft?
I don't know what starter really means anymore...but he'll get (2) that'll get significant play time I think
If there’s a DE, TE, or RB available at 55 they will probably see the field a lot this year I think., but they won’t be the “starter”. If it’s a CB we’ll probably only see him on special teams and in Nickel packages. TE on passing downs. RB on running downs so he’s not asked to pass block early imo. DE on obvious pass rush downs to keep people’s legs fresh. IF it’s an OL (which I don’t think it’ll be) I “doubt” he starts right away. I see us getting a stud OL in free agency which will give us a year to develop the new kid if we get one in the draft.
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
The real question about us getting linemen this year is....
What do they think of the development of Andrew Jackson and Mike Johnson, and do we get an OL in free agency. MAN I’m going to LOVE this offseason. There are a LOT of moving parts this year.
Technically the glass is always full. 1/2 air. 1/2 water.
If we get an immediate starter out of this draft I'll shit a gold brick.
Why is anyone on here saying we should get so and so because they can come in and help out immediately from the draft? Please guys, we don’t pick till the end of the second round. What are the chances we get an immediate impact guy that late? Maybe but I don’t believe our coaching staff is putting many of our eggs in the draft basket. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, all of our draft picks are gonna be developmental and depth guys. All of our personel ?s will be resolved in free agency.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 9, 2012 9:16 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Ray Rice, MJD, Frank Gore, Bob Sanders, Anquan Bolden, Osi Umenyiora, DeSean Jackson, and Darren Sharper were all picked in the back half of the 2nd round. There will be some good talent available when we pick.
Of those
I think only MJD,Boldin, and DJax had good rookie years. Like Ball Hawk said we will find someone to develop which is what most of the guys you listed were.
My mistake
You’re right, most of those guys didn’t produce as rookies. I was looking at it more from a finished product perspective. I guess it comes down to scouting a little bit of luck as to can give that immediate impact.
All I'm saying is
We will likely have our starters locked down before the draft even takes place which will put us in position to pick BPA.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 9, 2012 2:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
@ ball hawk
man im with on that we would be sooooooo luckey to land a impact player in the second round,we did get William moore in the second but look how much hes out of play,think we could trade Jerry for a teams game ball,I do hope we can bring the fins NT on board
that guy will get a push in the middle
I think everyone gets caught up in rankings
But the way I see it there is atleast a handful of players in every round that will be starters, therefore there is a chance to draft immense talent in every round, the key is to just get to that talent before other people do, pick-wise.
by GTbacker on Feb 9, 2012 12:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Is The Flaming Weener an appropriate knick name for Colby Fleener
If we draft him?
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 9, 2012 5:53 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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