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The Case For Curtis Lofton And The Case Against Curtis Lofton

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 01:  Curtis Lofton #50 of the Atlanta Falcons runs out of the tunnel during player introductions before facing the Baltimore Ravens at Georgia Dome on September 1, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Atlanta Falcons have some major free agent decisions coming up. Brent Grimes, John Abraham and Curtis Lofton could all walk if the Falcons can't make competitive offers, which lends this off-season considerable urgency. Let all three walk and you've just lost a ton of veteran talent and experience on this defense, talent and experience that will not be easy to replace.

We've talked about Grimes before. We haven't yet spent a ton of time on John Abraham, but his day is coming. I want to talk instead about the most likely free agent re-signing, Curtis Lofton, and why the Falcons might re-sign him and why they maybe shouldn't. A real argument with myself, if you will.

If you'll join me after the jump, we'll get right into the breakdown.

Star-divide

The Case For Curtis Lofton

  • He's a brilliant run-stopping linebacker, one of the finest in the NFL. In a defense filled with guys who occasionally forget how to tackle, Lofton is a stalwart hitter and one of the league's best at quickly diagnosing run plays. The Falcons wouldn't have such a dominant run D without The Police.
  • He's the quarterback of the defense. Lofton, as I just said, reads the offense and helps the coaching staff get everyone to where they need to go. He's also a natural team leader and a good dude, which helps in the intangibles department.
  • He's one of the few Falcons who regularly authors big plays. Tackles for losses, the occasional sack, a pass deflection, a forced fumble, that sort of thing.
  • There are simply no better middle linebackers on the open market. Teams that could really use him include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers. Losing Lofton to a division rival would really hurt. Anyone the Falcons bring in or promote will have to learn a lot in a hurry.
  • The fans love him and he'll be sorely missed. You can't make business decisions based solely on this, of course, but it is a factor.

The Case Against Curtis Lofton

  • He's not great in coverage. The rumors floating around about busting Lofton down to a two-down player make a certain kind of intuitive sense, because he can be a liability back there. Better usage would help with this, but I don't think he's going to turn into an above average cover 'backer overnight.
  • If the Falcons are keeping him around primarily for his run-stopping...well, does it make sense to sign him to a rich long-term deal or use up $7 million in cap on the guy? Akeem Dent is a classic two-down thumper who has shown sound tackling ability. There would be growing pains, yes, but enough that it's worth about $6.5 million to avoid them?
  • If the Buccaneers get into a bidding war over Lofton, he may simply become too expensive. At that point, it's too late for the franchise tag.

The Outcome

As with Grimes, the Falcons simply won't use the franchise tag on Lofton, Instead, they'll push hard for a four year extension to keep him in Atlanta, as he is considered a defensive cornerstone.

Obviously I hope this gets done, but look out for the Buccaneers. They have an overwhelming amount of cap space, a need in their linebacking corps and a desire to screw the Falcnos. If they start throwing money around, the Falcons could be in trouble.

Why don't you weigh in?

Comment 29 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I've struggled with this decision, for the same reasons

Hes really good but not yet great. I hope nolan can coach him up some but it’s still a tough question. Sign him and add another stud for a great 3-4.

"I'm about rings now"
~Arthur Blank

by CollegePark4Life on Feb 22, 2012 8:24 AM EST reply actions  

they shld offer him what they feel he is worth..

If they feel like thru their evaluations he is a 2 down lb ..offer him that..I love lofton but I think no 1 on the team shld b exempt from scrutinizm as it shld b bc falcons tryna field a championship team..its always better2 not pay than2 overpay.I trust they will make a fair offer.I just hope its enough 4 him..it really depends on how nolan see him.time will tell

Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style

by turnj35 on Feb 22, 2012 8:29 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I'm more worried about losing Lofton

Than Grimes or Abraham. Simply, because defensive backs just aren’t worth as much in todays NFL and Abe is old. But if Lofton can’t cover, that is a problem.

by falcons11 on Feb 22, 2012 8:57 AM EST reply actions  

Like them fat girls say..I’m not chubby..I’m thick! Lol

Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style

by turnj35 on Feb 22, 2012 9:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'd disagree about him being the best available; PFF has him ranked as the fourth best ILB

They have Stephen Tulloch as their best; given his ability to cover and play the run, he’s already a better player than Lofton. For what it’s worth, a 37 year old London Fletcher is ranked ahead of him (3).

by TheAreopagite on Feb 22, 2012 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

You're right

and that good market should allow the Falcons to get him at a good price hopefully. However, Curtis is the youngest MLB on that list, so that could work in his favor.

by KMarch on Feb 22, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

C. Lo should flourish in a Nolan 4-3 hybrid...

… but are we going to get a 2nd mortgage on the farm to keep him? I can see Abes being let go (age+ currently $8M/yr) and Grimey walking (poor fit in new defensive scheme, currently $2.6M/yr), but I cannot see letting The Police walk without some fight. Do we double his current salary if Tampa Bay offers him that? I dunno – according to sportscity.com, his 2011 salary was $600k with cap hit of $1M. For a 4 year deal, I presume he’d want closer to $1.5M with a bonus. If we lost Grimes, we could more than pay that to Lofton.

Unfortunately Grimes is one of the best UFA CB’s available, and C.Lo is the best UFA LB. That is going to cost us. Question is – where are the deep waters in UFA’s, and can the Falcons exploit that?

by Mnemonic on Feb 22, 2012 9:48 AM EST reply actions  

1.5 mil?

I wish we could get Lofton for that much! lol
It’s gonna cost us at least 5-7 mil per year to resign him.

WELL, THAT FREAKIN' BLOWED!!
2012 MAYBE?
probably not. lol

by ATLsince1972 on Feb 23, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

He's no Channing Crowder

All kidding aside, I really like The Police but I can still see what he is and isn’t. He’s not great in pass coverage, but the Falcons are unlikely to be able to find an ILB who is good in coverage to replace him. There just aren’t many ILB’s in the league who are good in coverage and those that are are not likely to be let go by their current teams.

My prediction is that The Police stays in Atlanta and Nolan is smart enough to not have Lofton covering Percy Harvin 40 yards down the field.

I don’t think Lofton will give any significant loyalty discount to the Falcons, but I don’t see him as the type to just go to the highest bidder. If the Falcons offer him a competitive contract, he stays.

by JoshuaG on Feb 22, 2012 9:53 AM EST reply actions  

Keep Grimes and Lofton

If Abraham likes the ATL, he’ll complete his run with a modified contract. He isn’t an every down player and needs more rest than Lofton on 3rd down.

by Singletary on Feb 22, 2012 10:47 AM EST reply actions  

Just saw a report on Nicks

He says he wants to get payed more than Jahri Evans, looks like he won’t be coming here then. oh well

If Halladay, Lee, and Hamels all break their arms while playing tag in the clubhouse, We'll be set

by suicide bunting is a sin on Feb 22, 2012 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

I just saw that2 & immediately crossed him out in my mind of becoming a falcon..I think it was already a slim chance but now I say no chance being that he wants2 become the highest paid guard in the nfl

Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style

by turnj35 on Feb 22, 2012 11:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

What did you expect we would be able to sign him for? Chump change?

I fully expected that if we were to bring in Carl Nicks, we would have to pay $10+ million a season. I personally think that is a bit too much to be paying an interior lineman, but I’m sure there are plenty of people on this board that would disagree with me.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Feb 22, 2012 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

That isn't all bad.

It just means he cost NO an arm and a leg, or prices himself out of their reach. Either way, it helps us.

'Each of us is a mixture of some good and some not so good qualities. In considering one's fellow man it's important to remember the good things ... We should refrain from making judgments just because a fella happens to be a dirty, rotten SOB.' John Wayne, Playboy Interview 1971

by jcaustic on Feb 22, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Lofton's biggest fault is his coverage ability

However, that is something that can be covered by the scheme. I remember a lot of people were pretty pissed when somehow, Curtis Lofton drew Percy Harvin in man-coverage. I was reminded of watching Brad Jefferson covering Jacoby Ford in man-coverage here at Tech. Schemes like that got Dave Womack fired…
I think Lofton can be a three-down linebacker, and a very good one at that. When I look at a guy like a Sean Weatherspoon, I see a weapon that can be used to greatly improve this defense. He can also be used to cover for Lofton’s faults. Curtis Lofton is the leader of this defense and a great asset. We have the players on this roster to make up for some of his deficiencies, and no other player can account for what he brings to the table that would be lost if he were to end up anywhere besides in a Falcon’s uniform.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Feb 22, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions  

CURTI$

We absolutely have to make Lofton a quality offer. He is a better than average MLB who would improve that LB corps of any of our rivals. So if we can’t out bid the bucs, we at least need make them pay through the nose for him. The last thing we want is The Police going to a division rival in the prime of his career with a chip on his shoulder because we didn’t respect him with a quality offer.

Falcon Fans UNITE!

by Blue Falcon on Feb 22, 2012 1:38 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

Please pay off The Police.

That doesn’t sound quite right…

'Each of us is a mixture of some good and some not so good qualities. In considering one's fellow man it's important to remember the good things ... We should refrain from making judgments just because a fella happens to be a dirty, rotten SOB.' John Wayne, Playboy Interview 1971

by jcaustic on Feb 22, 2012 1:52 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Linebacker was never our issue so not signing him

would be a mistake. Our issues have been getting pressure from our DE and safety issues. They need to quit playing and sign Lofton and Grimes to reseaonable contracts and let’s move on to the real challenges like improving the O-line.

by Fear Me on Feb 22, 2012 2:09 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

agreed

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Feb 22, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

He makes a lot

of tackles, and should as a MLB in a 4 3, that is the design. Most of those tackles are about 5 yards or over past the the LOS. Averages 1 sack and 1 INT a year. A tackle for a loss happens about once every 4 games.

A playmaker is not how I would describe him, although last year was his best year in that regard. A good, dependable MLB with limited coverage skills about sums him up.

I give him props for coming in as a rookie and taking charge, not many can do that, so the intangibles as they say, are very high.

Spend a bunch on a two down LB with apparently limited big play skills, I don’t think so.

By the way, he was the winner of my vote for the worst play of the year.

by Whopper Dawg on Feb 22, 2012 5:54 PM EST reply actions  

Lofton is easier to replace than

Abe and possibly Grimes. Lofton is a good MLB, not great and not top tier. I love Lofton in a Falcons jersey but this is a position that ATL could improve on or possibly fill with the same level of player for less than Lofton will want to get paid.

I think this is an interesting thread because the same discussion was had before the beginning of last season when it looked like Nicholas would be leaving. Many people posted how LB’s were a dime a dozen in a 4-3 D. Maybe it was because the player was Nicholas because it has changed with Lofton being the LB that might leave.

by mwalex on Feb 22, 2012 6:07 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Great point

and let’s not forget about the ramifications with Nicks involved in this. #54 is incredibly underrated and if Lofton isn’t resigned that will give him an ability to step up and get on the field more, which I wouldn’t mind. In their review of the NFC South, PFF had this to say about Nicks:

Atlanta didn’t get as much production from their pass rush as they had hoped, especially in their sub package defense on 3rd-and-long. Part of the problem came the lack of push up the middle from anyone not named Jonathan Babineaux. One way to counter this would be to get a bit more creative and use more 3-3-5 alignments, as had seemingly become the norm in 2010. Nicholas, who missed time through injury as well, would fit in very handily as one of these three linebackers, as he and Weatherspoon displayed an ability to generate pressure off the edge. However they do it, the Nicholas’ play seems to dictate he should be a bigger part of the defense.

by KMarch on Feb 22, 2012 8:05 PM EST up reply actions  

If I’m not mistaken, in MN scheme the linebackers have to be more athletic because the defense doesn’t shift to matchup with the offense.

by dnldbrk on Feb 22, 2012 7:00 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Let the Bucs have him. Give 'em Robinson, too.

We’ll simply abuse them through the air like every opponent has.

by DBFalcon on Feb 22, 2012 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

It's an old story

Teams in the NFC South tend to feed from each other during FA season. heck, we got at least one starting QB (Hebert) and then a kicker (Andersen) from the Saints. We got Warrick Dunn from the Bucs.

There has always been an argument to create a league rule barring FA personnel from relocating onto a rival team in the same division… but it never took root.

The rivalries in this division are incredibly intense. The Saints/Falcons wars are like none other in the NFL. For two teams that once shared the basement in a horrible NFC West placement, we’ve definitely turned an ugly eye to one another now. The Bucs aren’t any easier. Their fans used to terrorize the team official website boards… until they went into the skids and then most of them evaporated.

"There's nothing wrong with Florida that a rise in ocean level wouldn't cure."

by Redoubt on Feb 23, 2012 8:07 AM EST reply actions  

I say let Lofton go cuz he would be the easiest to replace of the big 3 Fa's we have

We even have his replacement on the roster currently in Nicks and Dent. But with Abe and Grimes, there is nobody else we can get that would be better and cheaper than them 2 guys. DE and CB are 2 very important positions on a defense, why would you let 2 pro bowlers at those positions walk away? You dont! Besides, Crowder will probably be in camp to help teach the new defense to Nicks and/or dent, so the learning curve would be much shorter for Lofton’s replacement than normal circumstances. We’re already gonna get a slight improvement at LB with Crowder replacing Peterson most likely, so the loss of Lofton would not hurt the defense near as bad as the loss of Abe or BG.

WELL, THAT FREAKIN' BLOWED!!
2012 MAYBE?
probably not. lol

by ATLsince1972 on Feb 23, 2012 3:40 PM EST reply actions  

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