The Reasonable Expectations File: Julio Jones

by Dave Choate on Feb 20, 2012 8:00 AM EST in Falcons Talk

The Falcoholic tries to sort through the hype, the doom and gloom and everything in between to come up with reasonable expectations for some of the Falcons' young players. First up, the unstoppable Julio Jones.

It's impossible to write a post about Julio Jones without acknowledging that it's equally impossible to figure out Jones' ceiling. Receivers this big, this fast, this deadly after the catch and this capable of leaping six feet off the ground from a standing position just don't come along every day. I bet he can construct less awkward sentences, as well.

It's too easy to get caught up in the physical tools and predict 2012's numbers based solely on that physical ceiling. If Julio Jones played 16 games this year and dominated as he should, he'd probably catch 150 balls for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. At least once a game, he'd rocket to the moon to brings rocks to the children of Georgia.

But considering that Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Jacquizz Rodgers and possibly Harry Douglas/Kerry Meier/whoever the Falcons sign will be contending for targets and will cut into his numbers. He may miss a game or two, because he is not an infalliable robot. And no one has ever reeled in 3,000 yards in a single season before, and the odds would seem to be against JJ being the first.

On the other side of the ledger, Jones is a truly special talent. Pro Football Focus compared the rookie campaigns of Jones and A.J. Green and found that Jones' YAC production was truly special, even if he's not yet as sure-handed as Green. Once he gets over his mild drop issues and refines his route-running a little bit, he's going to go from scary to fully terrifying.

So, all that considered, here's my best shot at a line for Jones in 2012, remembering that in 13 games in his rookie season he put up a 54 catch/959 yards/17.8 yards per catch/8 touchdown line.

80 catches, 1,300 yards, 16.3 yards per catch, 14 TDs

Maybe that's a smidge optimistic, but I think it's extremely attainable. I do think Jones will cut into White's numbers this year, and I think he'll establish himself as the #1 option in the passing game. And I think that his YPC will fall just a bit as Ryan finds him on shorter routes.

Now that I've said my piece, give us your projection.

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I could see his numbers being around there. I hope roddy doesn’t take it too hard that he’ll be thrown to less

by J_Cod on Feb 20, 2012 8:05 AM EST reply actions

Assuming a full season, that’s 5 catches a game for Julio.

Roddy’s averaged between 5 and 7 (rounded up) in each of the last 4 seasons. He saw 15 less passes last year compared to 2010 (roughly 1 less per game) and Julio received 54. If we adjust the numbers (assuming Julio hits 80), we’re seeing Roddy take just under 30 less catches (but that assumes he catches all of the, which he won’t). So yes, Roddy might take 2-3 passes less per game.

Then again, that’s assuming Matt Ryan doesn’t increase his pass attempts. If he did, that could easily negate the fewer throws. Roddy has probably been one of Julio’s biggest fans (aside from the draft night comments); I don’t see this slighting him any.

by Pete E. Tong on Feb 20, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's reasonable too, and if it means Roddy gets less,

I think going deeper into the playoffs will be enough for him.

And speaking of receivers, I think Hines Ward would be an interesting addition. After stinking it up again against the Giants, I wondered if they would benefit from signing a couple of vets in their twilight, like Hines Ward and Dwight Freeney (one on offense and one on defense) who’ve been there done that and know how to go deep into the playoffs. Clearly with Ward, it would be more of a symbolic move, and they would need to be upfront with him. “You’re not going to start, we want to use you in certain situations,” etc.

by BEZERKO on Feb 20, 2012 8:19 AM EST reply actions

I don't disagree with the idea of having a classy vet

but I don’t think Ward is the right guy. While he doesn’t have more playoff experience than the rest of the squad, this role is being filled by TG. I truly hope that the front office has started to talk to him about becoming a coach with the Birds when he does retire. He’s smart, knows the NFL better than any other player, knows how to keep in shape and is a rock that helps steady the team.

by drmondo667 on Feb 20, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions

rocket2 the moon & bring back rocks2 children of ga..

Where do u get this stuff from?lol..I really liked that 1..I say he catch less balls than roddy but end up with more yards

Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style

by turnj35 on Feb 20, 2012 8:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions

My brain's a scary place to visit

by Dave Choate on Feb 20, 2012 8:57 AM EST up reply actions

It will all be based on how the Offensive Line plays.

That will dictate the performance of Matt Ryan which will subsequently affect the stats of Wide Receivers. If the OL performs the same way as last year then you can expect comparable numbers to the last season. Do I think we will experience the same OL play as last year? No not really, but chemistry is just as important to offensive lineman than is technique and finesse at the position. Throwing in a FA like a Ben Grubbs or Carl Nicks is going to take time to mesh in to the system. I know right now anything is an upgrade to the Sam Baker and to what we have.

If the OL performs up to the 2010 level or better I’d say:

Julio Jones: 94 Rec, 1350 yards, 15.7 YPC, 9 TD

Roddy White: 82 Rec, 1050 Yards, 12.5 YPC, 7 TD

The Dirk Koetter Special

Julio Jones: 18 Rush Att., 210 Yd, 11.3 Avg, 3 TD

Ron Artest = Ron (sm)Artest - He Is The Most Interesting Man In The World

by JoshChildressAfroIsCure4Cancer on Feb 20, 2012 8:49 AM EST reply actions

Agreed,the Oline is key.

I would only add that while chemistry is an issue,I’ve watched each of the Falcons losses about 15 times each.The Bears,Texans,Packers and Giants weren’t trying to fool or trick anyone.They thoroughly beat our Oline in man on man engagement,consistently for 60 minutes.It was particularly true on the interior..Some physical talent infusion would help immediately on that basis as will organic improvement from Johnson and Hawley.

For now,I’m going to maintain my earlier projection for Julio: 89 Rec, 1465 yds, 11 TD

by dawg1060 on Feb 20, 2012 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

I doubt this

I think their going to want to spread the ball more. I still think WH will lead the team in recs and I think Dave is right on point with his projection if WH can stay healthy.

by pierre02 on Feb 20, 2012 11:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Woody Harrelson's on our team?

by drmondo667 on Feb 20, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

Makes me wonder if he has a twinkie clause?

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Feb 20, 2012 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's completely possible

Koetter has said he wants to stretch the field and who better to do it with than JJ?

I agree that it will depend on OL performance AND plays designed to take the rush pressure off of Ryan.

by mwalex on Feb 20, 2012 9:55 AM EST reply actions

Oline, play design and Matt finally hitting guys in stride

Many a play last season that could have gone for 15-30 yds would go for 8-15 because our receivers would almost have to stop to catch the ball instead of running thru the catch. if he could hit JJ or Roddy, who isn’t a small guy himself, with a head of steam they’d be running roughshod over CB’s. A broken tackle or two later and you’re picking up some big chunks.

by aces666high on Feb 20, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

that's optimistic

but not at all unreasonable. I’ll go slightly more cautious and say 1200 yds, 10 TD’s. I’ve got Roddy down for 1050 yds next year.

by ChardeeMacDennis on Feb 20, 2012 11:17 AM EST reply actions

I can't predict numbers but

can we say pro bowl bowl and girls?

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.
"Screw 2nd." Lugs Harvey.
"In Grimes we trust, all others get gashed"- Me.

by CaptJackSparrow on Feb 20, 2012 11:48 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

I like your numbers Dave...

We can only hope the tds will be there and that he stays healthy. Hammys were a problem for him this year. These guys need some Yoga…worked for Aarion Foster

by Bigru3 on Feb 20, 2012 11:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions

I want wins, stats suck (see Peyton, Marino, etc)

As long as jj keeps his nose clean, no strip clubs, bar fights, duis….

East Side Mathemagician

by 831salasfan on Feb 20, 2012 12:06 PM EST reply actions

A better name example would be a guy who doesn't have a ring

Dan Marino, Barry Sanders, Peerless Price…….I kid, I kid!

by aces666high on Feb 20, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

I posted this in a thread last month..

‘I know it doesn’t work like this but if you took Julios last 5 games
and he preformed like that over a whole season his stats would be-

19 Touchdowns
1475 Yards
77 Receptions
19.16 Avg
And if you took his last 6 FULL games (i.e. not injured,with the indy game!!)

21 Touchdowns
1579 Yards
72 Receptions
21.93 Avg’

I am still baffled by this, i doubt he will be that consistent and i agree it depends on if the O line can improve but i think…
70 receptions
11 Touchdowns
1240 Yards

by HappySour on Feb 20, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions

He is a good receiver

no doubt. I think the yardage numbers are attainable, the TDs maybe not, although he has high TD to reception ratio.

Food for thought -

Steve Smith was available as a free agent last year. His numbers last year were superior in catches and yards, but not TDs (which I think is suspect) than Dave’s 2nd year projection for JJ.

So, what would be better Smith, 2 1s, a 2 and 2 4s or JJ?

by Whopper Dawg on Feb 20, 2012 4:40 PM EST reply actions

A 32 year old WR who made 7 million last year and who thrived w/a mobile QB w/a cannon for an arm or

a young player who is signed for the next 4 years at 16 million who will be a force in the league? I’ll take the rookie. Did we give up a lot? Oh yeah. But give me a guy who is a sure thing over a guy who was on the downswing for the past couple of seasons. Smith would have had nowhere near the season he had if he was w/us. Matt doesn’t have the mobility to stretch plays or the straight line deep ball arm. Smith would have been bitching and moaning by week 5.

by aces666high on Feb 21, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Blackmon x2 is not better than either Julio or A.J, I think it is safe to say that that has been the best WR draft in a while hw

Not to mention other key guys like Smith in the Ravens and many more.

Hello NFL teams, are you in need of a SB ring. Is your 9-7 or 10-6 team that barely slipped in to playoffs needing some help, well, beat the Falcons and you are guaranteed a SB berth!

by InMattWeTrust on Feb 20, 2012 7:44 PM EST reply actions

WHO DO

you think we would have taken in the first round had AJGreen been available?

by old cuss on Feb 20, 2012 8:39 PM EST reply actions

Julio.

I heard TD talking about it. They were looking for a complete WR and while AJ has been a great receiver he’s not as physical as JJ and lacks the blocking skills of JJ.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 21, 2012 8:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions