Lowered Expectations: Mike Smith Edition

by James Rael on Jan 27, 2012 12:35 AM EST

I heart Mad TV. During the mediocre Saturday Night Live years, it was one of my favorite shows. And my favorite sketch was Lowered Expectations. If you've never seen it, then check out this clip and I'm sure you'll think it's awesome too.

You're probably wondering why I'd start out a Smitty-related post like this. Well, to be frank, our expectations as a fanbase are lower than they once were, and that's pathetic. Pathetic! OK, maybe pathetic isn't a good way to describe it. But, I can't lie, it's starting to irk me. At some point, it's natural to wonder whether there's a breaking point.

I'm in my mid-to-late 20s, and during my time as a Falcons fan, I've honestly expected a Lombardi every year. Maybe I'm just an enormous homer, or maybe my expectations are radically out of touch with reality. Our own Adam Schultz wrote a well-versed dissertation on this subject last week. My problem, and the problem most Falcons fans face, is the temptation to forgive.

It's true. I love this team. I can't quit them. Every year my expectations are raised, and every year, they come crashing down when the Falcons are knocked out of contention. By now I'm used to it.

As for Smitty, he's been nothing but solid. Solid I like. Solid I can live with. He's sure to field an average to slightly above-average squad each and every year. Heck, we even make the playoffs more often than not. He's like a professional darts player with superb technique. Sooner or later, the guy's going to hit the bull's eye, but every time he misses, you just cringe in despair.

That said, discuss the following: how much leeway does Smitty have at this point? Is being solid enough or will Mr. Blank raise his expectations in decisive fashion at some point? If you think this discussion is pointless, then don't participate. But when there's an elephant in the room, I find it's best to point it out. There has to be a breaking point, a point at which Mr. Blank won't tolerate coming to close to the bull's eye any longer.

Ready? Set? Go!

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James, you bring up a good point...

Smitty has accomplished so much for this franchise, getting us to a point where out angst is about not winning in the playoffs. Think about that for a minute….we are accustomed to wondering if they would even mount back to back winning seasons. So smitty has done a lot. HOWEVER, it’s not clear he’s the man that can take the birds to the promised land. I hope he does, but I will enter next season with a healthy skepticism about our prospects. I don’t want to hear about Rise Up or any other slogan. Don’t say/do anything this offseason to get my hopes up. Just win so we can all get off your back, smitty.

by atlien698 on Jan 27, 2012 12:53 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions

Smitty always looks like he's got gas.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Jan 27, 2012 1:17 AM EST via mobile reply actions

I don't think I'll ever be used to it.

It’s true. I love this team. I can’t quit them. Every year my expectations are raised, and every year, they come crashing down when the Falcons are knocked out of contention. By now I’m used to it.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Jan 27, 2012 1:47 AM EST reply actions

Think About It

You were just signed as a coach along with a first time GM.The GM tells you this:

You have one pass rusher, only one and in the next five drafts/free agent moves, I will not get you another one. Plus, you will never has a shutdown corner either. Almost all of my draft picks will be mediocre and not play, but you can expect about one solid contributor a year. Good luck new coach.

Given that you better do three things in the NFL:

Pass accurately
Protect the passer (please see Baker)
Rush the passer

TD has done Smith no favors.

by Whopper Dawg on Jan 27, 2012 2:18 AM EST reply actions

do u think

by jgreedy on Jan 27, 2012 2:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

i think

It was more of MM & BVG, than TD. We got good players that just wasnt use right

by jgreedy on Jan 27, 2012 2:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Correctamundo

Thats why I want him to draft BPA. I think TD often reaches to fill needs instead of drafting BPA and letting the wrinkles iron out. If we have a need for a CB and there is a potential stud who is a RB. Draft the RB.

by pierre02 on Jan 27, 2012 2:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Load of crap

Unless you’re in the front-office with TD and Smith, you have NO IDEA what they talked about. In every interview I’ve seen, TD and Smith WORK TOGETHER when deciding who to draft.

And Baker has been a bust, but who the hell can see that? You’ve got the benefit of hindsight and you’re ready to crucify TD for it.

Your hatred for TD has clouded your ability to see things objectively.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 8:28 AM EST up reply actions

Load Of Crap

Hmmm, let’s see, MS is the coach. TD is the GM. Ultimately, TD is the decision maker on personnel. If I were the owner, and the GM was pointing at the coach (like you are) in the matter of personnel, I’d get a new GM.

I don’t hate TD, I just find it amusing and disappointing that TD gets a pass from folks like you and when his obvious short comings are pointed out, one is accused of hating. The discussion (please see newer blog on this site and Schultz column) is centering on how many former 1s (Baker and Jerry) and FAs (Robinson and Edwards) should hit the streets.

Ex his first year, he gets about 1 to 1.5 solid players a year out of the draft, and that don’t feed the bulldawg. And if you don’t think that is manifesting itself on the field, then you aren’t watching the games or don’t know what you are watching. Our lines can’t compete, can’t rush the passer, can’t protect the passer, no shutdown corner, etc, etc.

And that is on TD. And when the new coordinators show up, I don’t think we will be awash with pass rushers and corners.

But I know I am talking to a stone wall, but just like I railed against the Jerry pick (when it happened) and just like I railed against the Jones trade and pick (when it happened), I’ll be here watching and reminding.

Answer me this DW, how many players do you expect out of the upcoming draft?

I’ll give you a pretty good number to expect. 1.

by Whopper Dawg on Jan 27, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

There's a difference from pointing out his misfires

And from calling him an outright disaster as you always do. You have no sense of balance. You can’t even objectively look at the players he has brought in. You use broad statements like “Almost all of my draft picks will be mediocre and not play” which paint him as a blithering idiot, even though the rest of the league CLEARLY admires him and what he’s done in 4 years – giving him Executive of the Year twice now.

And yet, you in all your wisdom and far-reaching intelligence and future-reading can sit back and speak of how he should have known that certain players were going to be busts while others were surefire hits. What would sports do without you and your all encompassing wisdom?

But none of this is news and I’m a fool for constantly responding to your baseless and worthless proclamations. We’re never going to see eye to eye on this. I need to be the better person and realize that you can only lead a horse to water.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Yep, allot of skeletons around the water hole!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 27, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

Better Person

Ah, insults now since I don’t agree with you.

Why don’t you debate the points?

I’ll table some questions for you. You may or may not denigrate yourself to respond to a wretch like me since you are obviously the superior person by your own designation.

TD has had 5 number one picks. 2 are busts. That is 40% failure rate. Do you think that is good?

TD has had three big money FA signings, Turner, Robinson and Edwards. Only one has been as advertised. That is a 67% failure rate. Do you think that is good?

TD has had 32 drafts picks to date. Only nine of which are starters today. That is 28%. Do you think that is good?

Do you think we are closer or further to/from the SB end of 2011 vs end of 2008 and why?

Has another pass rusher been added to assist Abraham?

Do we have a shutdown corner?

Do we have a quality offensive line?

Do you think the Jones trade was a smart move, why?

Name one dominant player on D besides Abraham.

How many starters will TD glean from this year’s drafts?

Do you expect to win a playoff game next year and if so, how many?

Valid questions, not baseless and worthless. You may not like them, and I have high confidence you will run from them, but they will remain out there, regardless if you realize it or not.

by Whopper Dawg on Jan 27, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Those are legit questions

But NOT what you lead with. You lead with hyperbole and boisterousness.

I’m done playing your game – it’s wasted breath. You can believe what you want, and the people who anointed TD as Exec of the Year will disagree with you.

Success is internally determined and externally executed.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

Legit Questions

Yes, they are, and they are exactly the same points as in my previous posts. Exactly.

Not playing any game, and I find it interesting that rather than answer my questions or counter my arguments (how am I wrong specifically), you just, essentially, name call.

I don’t know who appointed TD exec of the year and could care less, but guarantee you, it wasn’t the Giants.

One last chance with one question. How many prognosticators will select the Falcons to go the the Super Bowl next year?

If you struggle with that, I have a hint. It will be less than the starters that TD gleans out of this upcoming draft.

by Whopper Dawg on Jan 28, 2012 1:06 AM EST up reply actions

I will just respond to your percentages...

here is an article from the “Mile High Report”. It covers the 2004 thru 2008 drafts, could not find one that goes through 2011…

It is a really good read and by the measuring stick you use…ALL NLF GM’s are horrible. I would wager that if you drop the first 3 drafts and add the last 3 drafts, the numbers probably would change that much.

As this article points to…the draft is nothing more than your best “educated” guess!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 28, 2012 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

ok, lets try the link again...

http://www.milehighreport.com/2010/3/24/1386838/the-nfl-draft-a-little-less

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 28, 2012 1:27 AM EST up reply actions

I meant, "Numbers probably WOULDN'T change that much"...man I am tired

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 28, 2012 1:32 AM EST up reply actions

Here's the thing:

You and DW spar ad nauseum. You responses to his responses are – generally speaking – far more rational than you’re initial comments.

Just saying.

by James Rael on Jan 27, 2012 6:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Valid point

And I’m done with the sparring. As you noted: “ad nauseum”.

Success is internally determined and externally executed.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 10:47 PM EST up reply actions

And that is the deal

DW doesn’t respond with any counters, just name calls. Disappointing really. As far as I can discern, he just thinks I am wrong, while I give specific points and examples.

by Whopper Dawg on Jan 28, 2012 1:08 AM EST up reply actions

maybe that's what they (the Falcons are going to find out)

By getting rid of MM and BVG, we get to see who’s fault it really is, by elimination.
Was it the scapegoats, or the guys in charge?
We’ll find out this season and all our questions will be answered.

by brotherbrown on Jan 27, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

and think of it like this

Whopper Dawg, you have a legitimate argument in your anger and disappointment as a falcons fan.
We all are.
So we have to think someone is to blame and you have to start at the top theoretically.

I still think TD has been good for the franchise in his drafts/philosophy, but simply hasn’t shined through lackluster coaching. Therefore since it’s believed TD hired those coaches it is TD’s fault.
Well, I cannot disagree with you.
Some of the great people in this world make mistakes. But that’s how you get to great, you make mistakes and learn from them, and whether the storm.
Everyone learns, and grows.
What TD does from here is yet to be seen.
Remember Bill Billichick was in Cleveland for a few years and Bombed there. It took Bill Cowher over a decade to win a superbowl.
Your anger is justified, but if you do that math, it’s wise not to close the book on someone/thing in which there are still facets or issues to be determined.
Is TD a good GM that just made the mistake of bad coaches the first time?
Is Matt Ryan a really good QB that yet to hit his stride in the playoffs because he keeps facing superbowl teams in the first round?

by brotherbrown on Jan 27, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions

Love Mad TV

Talked to this guy at work today( a fellow falcon fan) and he said it’s the same ending every year. Are we cursed? Is there a conspiracy with NFL teams and how active their fanbase are?

I don’t know I never expect a SB out of this team. I always predict from logic instead of a fanatic approach. We are almost there. I think we have the owner who is fed up and pissed. Blank is starting to resemble a mob boss. Breaking knees and taking names and I love it.
Just be patient, baby steps, and hopefully we can get a playoff win.

by pierre02 on Jan 27, 2012 2:35 AM EST via mobile reply actions

it's definately something

But is the RedSox and the Saints can break there’s surely the Falcons can someday too.

by brotherbrown on Jan 28, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Let's all pump the "WE SHOULD FIRE THE BEST COACH IN FRANCHISE HISTORY" brakes just a bit

There are about 20 teams in the NFL that would kill to have this coach/GM combination. Let’s see how the new coordinators work out before we even contemplate calling for Smitty’s head.

Its true. I'm a Falcoholic! I just can't live without Falcohol!

by phoenix falcoholic on Jan 27, 2012 6:40 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

Yeah!

by FLA_Falcon on Jan 27, 2012 6:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah more like 5 teams

Smitty isn’t a top 10 coach IMO.

by pierre02 on Jan 27, 2012 11:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'd think he's at least top 15

Given that 12 teams make the playoffs each year, and he’s made it 3 out of 4.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

I can't really think of more than 5 coaches who are better than Smitty

They are Belichik, Payton, Coughlin, Reid, and McCarthy.
I would consider Jim Harbaugh, but his body of work is too small.
Ravens fans have the exact same complaints about John Harbaugh as we do about Smitty. Mike Tomlin gets way too much credit for the work his coordinators do. Rex Ryan sticks with his ineffective quarterback.

Its true. I'm a Falcoholic! I just can't live without Falcohol!

by phoenix falcoholic on Jan 27, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

Really??

Because in 4 years he has been named AP Coach of the Year once and finished 4th last year and his name is being mentioned this year but he has no chance in hell especially after that playoff loss…won’t even finish in the top 5.

The Sporting News has named him twice Coach of the Year in 2008 (same as AP poll) and they gave him the award over Belichick last year.

The only one that most people really follow is the AP poll but still…

I would say he is definitely top 10 and top 5 if he can “will” this team over the top…but that’s just me.

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 27, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

And that equals how many playoff wins?

Regular season awards don’t matter. As of today MS hasn’t prepared his team well for big games period. There are a couple coaches I can think of off the top of my head who are better. McCarthy, Payton, Belichick, Harbaugh, Coughlin, Reid, Fisher, Whisenhunt, Tomlin, and Fox. So smitty would be 11 in my power rankings maybe 12 because of Rex.

by pierre02 on Jan 27, 2012 6:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'd actually lean towards agreeing with this

It’s all about the playoff wins, and Smitty is now 0-3, with the last two not even being competitive after half time.

The only name in that list I might disagree with on any level is Reid, as he hasn’t done it recently and hasn’t done it consistently. However, he has been to the big dance, so it’s hard to put Smitty above him at this point.

Success is internally determined and externally executed.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

Regular season awards not mattering would...

be your opinion and not one I share!!

McCarthy, Payton, Belichick, Coughlin and Tomlin are all SB winners so no-brainer. Whisenhunt, Fox, Reid and Fisher have taken their teams there…so Smitty would be no. 10 on my list, yes ahead of Harbaugh and Rex. I don’t care about playoff wins SB is all that matters…so Holmgren would bump Smitty to 11, I stand corrected!!

Yes the 0-3 record sucks but it will come correct soon!! (I Hope)

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 28, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

Following since '79, but fanatical since '80

That season started me on my roller coaster love affair with the Falcons. After the playoff loss to Dallas (whom I’ve effin’ hated ever since) I’ve expected “next year is going to be the year”.

Heartbreak ensued…until 1998. Then all the magic happened. Planets aligned, universial harmony, dogs and cats sleeping together, then…Eugene and the hooker. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. But wait ’til next year!

Heartbreak ensued…then excitement, aka Mike Vick. If nothing else, he made watching exciting (and maddening). Every year I thought we had a chance. The win in Green Bay, playing in the NFC championship, et al. Alas…wait ’til next year! Then it happened…jailtime.

Heartbreak ensued…then more heartbreak. Thanks Petrino. But him leaving brought about the greated era in Falcon football to date. The first Matt Ryan pass (the skinny post to Jenkins for a TD) caused a glimmer of hope. Then a post season appearance with a rookie QB, then the “curse” of non-consecutive winning seasons broken, then back-to-back playoff seasons.

Wait ‘til next season…again. That’s the life a Falcon fan.

by BlueFender on Jan 27, 2012 7:49 AM EST reply actions 3 recs

This is THE year

Let’s face it – with brand new coordinators in place and a general consensus from the front office that they will get whatever players are needed, this is the year that Smitty gets a playoff win – or starts packing his bags.

I’m a huge Smitty fan and what he’s done for this franchise is amazing. But other teams had to move on from good coaches in order to reach their goals. Dan Reeves was never able to bring one home in Denver and was eventually let go. Marty Schottenheimer was great at producing winning ball clubs, but couldn’t get his team past the first round – he was eventually let go.

Personally, I believe the coordinators have been holding this team back, but I have a tinge of doubt. Smith was responsible for some very questionable calls this year, so he is not bullet proof in any of this.

That said, I believe that fresh blood in the coaching staff can make a big difference in firing the players up and making them believe again – and I think we’ll see a playoff victory (or more) in 2012.

by The DW on Jan 27, 2012 8:33 AM EST reply actions

Ummm...Wha...??

Did I miss something??

Is being solid enough or will Mr. Blank raise his expectations in decisive fashion at some point?

ALL AB wants are Lombardi Trophies!!

What would he raise his expectations too…?? The only NFL owner to also be elected President of the United States!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 27, 2012 10:41 AM EST reply actions

Not sure if ...

you’re serious or joking. But by “raise his expectations,” I mean fire Smitty for a lack of playoff success. Not saying that should happen, more like wondering when that could happen.

by James Rael on Jan 27, 2012 6:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Kind of both...

generally speaking…AB’s expectations were laid out before us when he bought the team. So in with that in mind, he has no other expectations for MS; its trophies. So if you’re not moving towards those expectations then I would assume you’d be gone. To say that he would need to raise his expectations in regards to MS would imply he lowered them to hire him. That’s all I was saying and yeah, I probably should have just said this instead of trying to be cleaver about it… :)

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Jan 27, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

sorry...just had to post this

by brotherbrown on Jan 27, 2012 10:41 PM EST reply actions

Patience my friend!!! Patience

I am as much disappointed as many of you with inconsistent performance and not reaching their potential. We are a good team consistently for last 4 yrs. We have added some pieces every year in terms of personnel.

We as fans always thought the coordinators have run their course and as expected front office made a change. Let’s give them a chance to take us the distance for superbowl. They want superbowl more badly than us. Their livelihood is dependent on it.

I am sure Arthur Blank has a shorter leash on his coaching staff than before…My guess is 2 years. Mike Smith better deliver the goods…

I sincerely hope he does.

by Falcons023 on Jan 28, 2012 12:21 AM EST reply actions