Bearing Down On The Bears: Will Jay Cutler Save Or Doom Chicago?

by Dave Choate on Sep 8, 2011 7:30 AM EDT in NFL News

I’ve never really done any kind of in-depth look at opposing teams before, but I’m going to give it a shot. Between this, some of our talented readers’ FanPosts, a visit to Windy City Gridiron and our usual matchups to watch on Saturday, you should know the Bears pretty well by the time the game rolls around.

The big question with the Bears, of course, is whether they can repeat last year. Bolstered by sporadically dominant performances by quarterback Jay Cutler, a potent pass rush and excellent special teams play, the team made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game. Unfortunately for Bears fans, the team then got soundly thumped by the Green Bay Packers.

The Bears followed that up with an interesting off-season. They jettisoned talented tight end Greg Olsen—tight ends are Mike Martz’s perpetual nightmare, after all—and drafted talented defensive end Stephen Paea to add potentcy to their already quality front seven. They picked up Brandon Meriweather off waivers to bolster the secondary—though I’ve seen Meriweather play, and he’s a bit overrated—and brought in Roy Williams to help the passing game. You can argue that these moves didn’t catapult the Bears up to the very tippy top of the NFC, but they certainly didn’t hurt the team badly, either.

For that reason and more, it would be a bad idea to take the Bears lightly. They’ve traditionally played the Falcons very close and have a nasty habit of coming up with a big play when they need it. In addition, they have a handful of dominant players at positions that can give the Falcons fits in this one, which we’ll touch upon more after the jump.

Read my questions for the game and my prediction, and weigh in with your own.

The Big Question

To me, this game hinges on Jay Cutler.

By now, you know Cutler’s reputation. He’s a sulky man-child who throws a pretty deep ball but also specializes in back-breaking picks. He’s a quitter, a guy who won’t play through injuries and doesn’t make his team better. Pieces of that are correct, especially the bit about interceptions, but there’s more to the story than that.

First off, Cutler is actually a pretty good quarterback. He has a career 104/79 TD/INT ratio and averages more than 7 yards per attempt, good for a career 86.4 passer rating. That’s nobody’s elite of elite quarterback numbers, but it’s undeniably quality, and Cutler also moves well when forced to run for his life. Given the relative strength of the offensive line, that does happen pretty frequently.

The one criticism that sticks: Cutler does throw too many interceptions. When he’s off, teams can feast on those mistakes, and that’s what the Falcons need to be ready to do.

The question becomes whether Cutler, who is streaky on his best days, shows up in a big way against the Falcons or not. If he’s accurate and his receivers help him out, he could have a big day. That opens things up underneath for Matt Forte, who runs well and is deadly as a receiver out of the backfield.

Alternatively, he could play poorly and get no help from a rapidly declining Roy Williams and Devin Hester, who was never my idea of a top-flight receiver to begin with. If Brent Grimes, William Moore and their counterparts in the secondary can grab a couple of errant passes, Cutler will have to catch up, and I like the defense’s chances. Particularly if Mike Martz stubbornly refuses to utilize Johnny Knox, the team’s most dangerous wide receiver.

The key, then, will be whether Cutler and his weapons show up, and what the Falcons to do to neutralize them. The linebackers need to be active to keep Cutler from taking off or finding Forte on outlet passes, and John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux and Ray Edwards need to apply constant pressure to rattle him. If that happens, a couple of game-changing turnovers are far from out of the question.

If they fail to do any of those things, of course, it’s going to be a very long day for the Falcons.

Three Smaller Questions

1) Will the pass rush prove too much for the Falcons offensive line? Big question, because Julius Peppers is elite and Henry Melton is an extremely underrated defensive tackle. Consider that we have a new guy at guard (Garrett Reynolds) and a second-year center (Joe Hawley) starting, and you can see why I might be a little worried about this. Ovie Mughelli will likely be chipping in on passing downs to help out in the middle.

2) Can the Bears cover Roddy White and Julio Jones? Frankly, I’m thinking no. White is incredibly skilled at getting open, Jones has shown considerable promise and the Bears secondary is nowhere near elite. The Falcons will get a chance to test out their new weapons, and with a healthy dose of Michael Turner, the Bears won’t be able to afford to drop everybody back.

3) Can the Falcons stop Forte? Even if Cutler is ineffective, Forte remains an underrated threat. He runs well in space, changes direction capably and really worries me as a receiver. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Weatherspoon or Stephen Nicholas was stalking him throughout the game.

Prediction

With these two teams, you can bet it will be close. The Falcons will have to protect Matt Ryan and capitalize on any and all Jay Cutler mistakes. The Bears will need to neutralize Ryan and make heavy use of Matt Forte to walk away with a win. In the end, in my honest opinion, the Falcons are the better team and will ultimately win out. Again.

I'll say 27-21, Falcons. What say you?

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Comments

Thank you for touching on the recieving ability of Forte.

I don’t know how often Chicago mixes in screens, but if they were smart, they’d be throwing A LOT of screens against us.

by FlyYouFalcons on Sep 8, 2011 7:32 AM EDT reply actions

that's what I'm worried about

conversely, I’m wondering if Mularkey was ever told about the meaning of a screen this offseason

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Sep 8, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

he tried a few in Preaseason

and they were amazingly successful

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Sep 8, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, yes they were and it was very refreshing to see...

April 1974 - Tug McGraw, when asked if he preferred grass or AstroTurf: "I don't know. I never smoked AstroTurf."

by Blood_Talon on Sep 8, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's going to be a close game

and the results will depend more on our OL performance than the Bears abilities. We should win this game, but I’m really worried about Todd McClure being out.

by LuvGems on Sep 8, 2011 7:47 AM EDT reply actions

The middle of their defensive line is in transition

So I’m not as worried about that. I am, however, worried about their front seven’s ability to shut down our running game if we pursue the “Mularky n’ Michael Mad Mash up the Middle” game plan again.

by TheAreopagite on Sep 8, 2011 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Alliteration this early? WOW.

Good to know about their line.

by LuvGems on Sep 8, 2011 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Alliteration almost always illustrates ... um, awl-somely?

We need that healthy dose of MT33 trap and off tackle so they’ll bring Urlacher up. Malarkey does throw many quick crossing routes, but I think this is the right time to practice that one.

How many more days, Lord, must I walk through the wilderness?
GO FALCONS!!

by AnOldBird on Sep 8, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

In the morning I'm all lights on noone home, so I was surprised.

by LuvGems on Sep 8, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

The middle of their defensive line is in transition

None of the Bear’s starter on the defensive line have changed from last season. What transition are you talking about?

by dino2997 on Sep 10, 2011 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Tommy Harris is off the team

And they drafted Stephen Paea

by Mosugo on Sep 11, 2011 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions

tim jennings vs Julio Jones

5’10" 185lbs vs 6’3" 220lbs….i will take julio, thank you very much

by GTbacker on Sep 8, 2011 8:56 AM EDT reply actions

I bet Julio has a big debut. Teams don't know how to gameplan for him yet.

31-17, Falcons.

by VenomySnicket on Sep 8, 2011 9:06 AM EDT reply actions

Concerned about Forte and our beloved ST's

Forte is a pass catching machine out of the backfield. He’s had no less than 51 each of his seasons in the league. It’s not like he falls over after gaining 2 yards either. He averaged 9.5 YAC while averaging a little over 10 a catch, so if my ciphering is correct, he did most of his damage after the catch. Scary, considering how plain sad our tackling has been from last season to this Pre season. Overpursuit has been a problem for our aggressive D on screens as well. ST’s, the less said the better for this bunch. Maybe it’s good that Bosher punts the ball into the end zone giving him a net of 20 yards. At least that way we don’t have to see returners go thru our ST like they were tackling dummies thus forcing Bosher to make yet another TD saving tackle. That being said, I’m praying 31-17 Falcons. I can’t take more of those damn close games.

by aces666high on Sep 8, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

This game

will be closer than you think.

27 -24 Falcons in OT.

by BigFalcon84 on Sep 8, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

Stopping Forte as a receiver is key

I live in Minnesota so I have the unfortunate priviledge of seeing ALOT of Bears games. As a runner, Forte is nothing to brag about . He had very few games where he was effective in the running the ball. However, Forte the receiver is dangerous as hell. Our LB’s will need to be on their “A” game to stop him. Even if Cutler is having a sucky day throwing the ball to receivers, he can always dump the ball off to Forte.

by leonw92 on Sep 8, 2011 10:28 AM EDT reply actions

My thoughts…Julio debuts big, but HD goes insane. You won’t find him in your fantasy league’s FA late Sunday evening. Turner and Snelling will be fighting for every inch, but we will struggle to have an effect run game. I don’t expect much from the little ones (Rodgers/Smith) either. The lack of run game won’t really matter as we see Ryan’s four big weapons on fully automatic. The O-Line will have it’s moments, but give Ryan what he needs. Defensively, I see us getting to Cutler early and his pissiness getting the best of him. Weatherspoon spys Forte, matching up to him well, while Loften does what he consistently does best. I’d bet that the secondary gives up a big play or two, but overall play well.

Unfortunately, my UGA v Boise predictions were even more optimistic than these, and that didn’t really turn out so well.

Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.

by bwellnjonesco on Sep 8, 2011 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

There’s a reason I picked HD with my last pick, despite getting a bunch of crap from the other guys in my league

"Success comes from knowing that you did your best to become the best that you are capable of becoming." -John Wooden

by kacc56 on Sep 8, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think

they will score 3 touchdowns off of us. i think our offense is too much for them to handle and our defense can handle their offense. quite frankly i don’t see this even being all that close, but i know for a fact it could end up being very close. i’m calling 27-13

by mattyice10 on Sep 8, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

my guess is 27-23

and Cutler throws another INT into endzone with no time remaining.

I think the only way we can lose is if we start shooting ourselves in the foot. I wouldn’t count that out, but I honestly think the team won’t be THAT complacent (and that’s why I’m investing 280 bucks in GamePass again).

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Sep 8, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

31-20

Lot of FGs for da bears.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 11:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

And a garbage time FG for Bryant.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 11:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Any body else think that HD will put up big #s this year.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 11:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I do as well...

April 1974 - Tug McGraw, when asked if he preferred grass or AstroTurf: "I don't know. I never smoked AstroTurf."

by Blood_Talon on Sep 8, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

you know I do

since I draftesd him in the FFFL

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Sep 8, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I took a visit to Windy City Gridiron yesterday

They have a very good article up about sundays match up and they go back to the 2009 match up when the falcons won 21-14 over the bears.The article breaks down what happened in that game.They do make a good point the falcons beat the bears the last two times both games in Atlanta and this game being played in Chicago.I noticed two things these teams have in common the bears like the falcons won a lot of close games last year,and both teams led the preseason in rush defense with the falcons #1 and the bears #2.Take it for what is worth the bears led all teams in preseason in total defense giving up only 273 yards agame the falcons only gave up 72 yards a game rushing in the preseason.I think who ever has the better passing offense and pass defense and least amount of turnovers will win this game.i say falcons will win 20-16

by falconpower on Sep 8, 2011 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

Preseason stats mean nothing

Most of the playing time went to guys that aren’t on the roster.

by Mosugo on Sep 11, 2011 6:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I t hink HD will have a break out year i think he will be one of the key

match ups for the falcons in the bears game i honestly don’t see us running for many yards against chicagos defense.I think when the falcons go to 3,and 4 wide sets HD could give the bears defense some issues and on a soldier field that has some issues already with the grass his quick cuts in and out could be a problem for them.

by falconpower on Sep 8, 2011 11:50 AM EDT reply actions

Accuscore picked us.

Pretty sure Accuscore, the computer program, had the best record of all of ESPN’s picking people last year.

Therefore, we win.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Sep 8, 2011 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

madden simulation picked us too

31-20 falcons I think

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Sep 8, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it will be a defensive battle

Key to me will be the battles between Abraham and J’Marcus Webb (moved this year from RT to LT) and Ray Edwards vs. Gabe Carimi (rookie RT from Wisconsin). If they can put pressure on Cutler and force interception(s), especially a pick 6, we win (in my opinion). If our offense runs over a damn good Bears defense, I’ll be elated. I think it’ll be closer to 17-13 or so…(for us, of course).

by randomaxe on Sep 8, 2011 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

I meant to mention...

that Webb was the 17th tackle taken in last year’s draft, and Abraham should be able to work him a bit. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t get at least one sack. Carimi was a much higher pick this year, but he’s known first as a good run blocker, so Edwards should be able to give him at least one similar lesson on passing downs.

by randomaxe on Sep 8, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

38-10

Roddy, JJ and HD all have TD catches. Turnner runs 2 in. End of the 1st half FG.

by SmokeyBell on Sep 8, 2011 3:06 PM EDT reply actions

What happens in the 2nd half?

How many more days, Lord, must I walk through the wilderness?
GO FALCONS!!

by AnOldBird on Sep 8, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Bears and Falcons

very close game….hard hitting…low scoring, considering the teams…..Bears 23 Falcons 19….

by Ron Tortorello on Sep 8, 2011 4:12 PM EDT reply actions

You got your numbers reversed there dude.

I know it’s an honest mistake, so we’ll let it slide.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 4:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Low scoring?

Isn’t our team built to outscore the opponent? We like shootouts…I think if the Falcons score more than 20 points, the game is over.

Falcons – 21 Bears – 17

by ndnpride8806 on Sep 8, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny observation:

None of our prognostications reflect scores divisible by 7. Kind of unusual for a football game.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 4:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Except Dave, the smart guy.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 4:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Just reading through these comments..

Sooo.. Sounds like your fans are most concerned about Cutler? I’d be thinking about that Bear’s D-line and having my QB for the rest of the season… Just being 100% honest and I know this team inside and out.

by vandycutlerfan on Sep 8, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

Giants led the league in injuring QBs last season

… not the Bears.

I keed.

But really, you make a good point. The Bears D is what is going to keep this game close. The fear of Cutler is whether or not he will be clutch in the 4th quarter thanks to that D-Line keeping the game so close.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Sep 8, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

right

I get that. I just don’t think Picks will be what determines this game.

by vandycutlerfan on Sep 8, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

also, to be fair

if you check the temperature of the Falcons’ fanbase – they are all high on our “new and improved defense” (by new and improved, I mean the Falcons added one pass rusher). The fans are expecting to see the Falcons’ upgraded D-Line attack the Bears’ suspect O-Line to pressure Cutler enough to throw the ball to our ball hawking secondary. I think the “Cutler might throw a million picks” prediction is just a fan hopeful thing.

I agree with you. The game is not going to come down to “the Bears lost because Cutler through 4 interceptions” – it is going to be a close one slugged out by two strong D-Lines and opportunistic defenses

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Sep 8, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

And a new cornerback and safety

"Success comes from knowing that you did your best to become the best that you are capable of becoming." -John Wooden

by kacc56 on Sep 8, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

each of whom may or may not actually play

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Sep 9, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Matthew is exceptional against pressure.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 8, 2011 6:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Not that cutler's not a threat

Not that Cutler is not a threat either, but this Bears D-line is insane, they all want a superbowl… And Bears new O-line isn’t looking too squeaky…

by vandycutlerfan on Sep 8, 2011 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

They all want a superbowl?!

Well, then, I guess we better pack things up. I mean, how can we compete with that? I wish our Falcons wanted a superbowl, but only the Bears do. And we all know that because they want one, they’ll be the greatest team in NFL history.

I like my sarcasm bloody.

by KMarch on Sep 8, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

yeh

Look I’m just saying Bears D is stalk full of players at the pinnacle of their NFL careers. They want the SB now. I’m sure the Falcons do too. You’ll see what I mean Sunday. If that new Bears offense lights up, it’s gunna be lights out for the Falcons 28-14.

by vandycutlerfan on Sep 8, 2011 5:28 PM EDT reply actions

That won't happen though

Because that new Bears offense is the same one that ranked amongst the worst teams in the league last year, plus a rookie right tackle and a washed up WR and minus a good TE

by Mosugo on Sep 11, 2011 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions

knock down drag out game

thats what we’ll see on Sunday between these two teams for sure. The turnover battle will help determine the winner of this game. The bears defense is very formidable and a great early test for our O, but I’m also excited to see our #1 defense play together for the first time. If they can step up and shadow Forte, and not let the screens kill them we can hold them to less than 20 points for sure. Remember a guy named Marshall FAulk? Martz used him to perfection, and he will with Forte as well, in the passing game that is. Our defense has to account fot this. I am not so worried about their receivers, especially oh Roy, he’s trash in my book. I’m sure any DB on our team could cover him, including Owens! lol
This will be a back and forth game for the first half, but the Falcons pull away in the 2nd half and win it 31-13. Mainly due to a pick 6 by Grimes to seal the win.JJ gets a TD as well as RW and Turner.

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Sep 8, 2011 7:03 PM EDT reply actions

The Bears D vs. The Falcons D

Question: How good is the Bears T.O. Differential? I think the Falcons have them topped from last year, right?

The Bears D seems to be a D that just stops people and forces them to punt. The Falcons D seems to give up yards, but create turnovers. I’ll take the turnovers and dynamic plays.

Can someone look up those stats? I’m too lazy.

by ndnpride8806 on Sep 8, 2011 9:56 PM EDT reply actions