2010 Falcons Defense Pass Coverage by Numbers: 3rd Down Conversions.

by Vishnu_falcon on Sep 10, 2011 10:58 AM EDT

The biggest knock against Falcons pass defense last year was third down conversions in addition to the insane amount of yards allowed. The Falcons Defense 3rd down pct was 39 %(79 out of 201 Attempts) good for 22nd rank in the league, however the pass defense accounted for 68%(54/79) of total 3rd down conversions allowed. Depending on whom you listen to, the blame for this falls on Stephen Nicholas, Thomas DeCoud, Dunta Robinson,Brent Grimes and Chris Owens etc. With out blaming anyone, lets dive in to the Pass coverage stats (except the NB which will be a separate post) focused on 3rd down conversions, 3rd down stops and total 1st downs from 2010. These numbers are from the notes I took from last year on pass coverage. Though this post is focused on 1st downs and 3rd down conversion, I have included other numbers like YPA, Yards, % complete as a reference for discussion. Please feel free to use the stats and come up with your own conclusions and discuss.

All stats are for 2010 Regular Season Falcons Pass Coverage only.

Top CB Tandem (BG & DR):

No	Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	3rd Stops	3rd Converted	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring Drives.
20	Brent Grimes	987	120	61	50.8	722	6.01	9	14	39.30%	39	32.50%	17
23	Dunta Robinson	849	81	50	61.7	546	6.7	8	4	66.70%	27	33%	12
	Total		201	111	55%	1268	6.3	17	18	48.90%	66	32%	29

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better): The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Dunta Robinson comes out on top with a 3rd down stop rate of 66.7%(allowed only 4 conversions out of 12 Attempts). DR 23 accounted for just 7%(4/54) of the total Falcons pass defense 3rd down conversions. These are solid numbers considering he was matched up against the number 1 receiver most of the times.

2. Brent Grimes has a stop rate of 39.3%; this is not surprising considering he is aggressively going after the ball. His interceptions and role as a playmaker compensates for his poor 3rd down stop rate. BG accounted for 25% (14/54) of the total Falcons passing 3rd down conversions.

3. DR and BG combined account for 1/3rd of Total Falcons 3rd down conversions (18/54). This is not bad considering that the top two Corner Backs are covering the top receivers.

1st Downs /Total Attempts (TA)%(Lower the Better):

1. Considering the 1st downs to the TA, only 33%(27/81) of Passes thrown at DR's receivers' went for 1st downs. He accounted for 14% (27/183) of the total Falcons 1st downs compared to 7% of total Falcons 3rd down conversions. The Quarterbacks are willing to take a chance with him on the early downs than the 3rd down.

2. Brent Grimes comes out on top considering 1st downs /TA, only 32% of the passes thrown his way went for 1st down. He accounted for 21%(39/183) of the total Falcons 1st downs compared to 25 %(14/54) of total falcons 3rd down conversions. BG is more effective on early downs than the 3rd down situations.

3. DR and BG together allowed 1st downs on only 32% of the TA. They allowed 36%(66/183) of the total Falcons first downs.

Safeties:

No	Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	3rd Stops	3rd Converted	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring DR
28	Thomas DeCoud	920	36	25	69.4	280	7.7	2	0	100%	7	19.40%	3
	Erik Coleman	149	4	4	100	57	14.25	0	3	0%	3	75%	1
25	William Moore	913	45	30	66.7	363	8.06	4	7	36.30%	13	28.80%	7
	Total		85	59		700	8.23	6	10	37%	23		11

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better): The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Thomas DeCoud actually improved on the Pass coverage last year though he wasn't explosive playmaker by creating turnovers. He had 3rd down stop rate of 100%(2 stops/2 Attempts). Thomas DeCoud was definitely not the reason for allowing 3rd down conversions.

2. William Moore had a stop rate of 36.3%(4 Stops/11 Attempts) on 3rd downs. William Moore 3rd down stop rate takes a hit because of his aggressive style similar to Brent Grimes. He accounted for 12% (7/54) of the total Falcons Passing 3rd down conversions.

3. Thomas DeCoud and William Moore both combined for only 12 % of the total Falcons Passing Defense 3rd down conversion. The Solid coverage by TD 28 combined with aggressive style of WM25 gives falcons a nice balance in the backfield.

1st Downs /Total Attempts (TA)%(Lower the Better):

1. Considering the 1st downs to the TA, only 19.4%(7/36) of Passes thrown at receiver covered by TD28 went for 1st downs. TD28 gave up a meager 3% (7/183) of the total Falcons 1st downs. TD 28 was pretty solid in coverage except for the 83 Yard TD against PHI in week 6.

2. William Moore accounted for only 7%(13/183) of total Falcons 1st downs. Similar to Grimes he is better on early downs than the 3rd downs. It would be interesting to see if Sanders plays SS in 3rd down coverage situations.

3. Both Safeties accounted for 10.9% of the total falcons first downs.

Line Backers:

No	Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	3rd Stops	3rd Converted	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring DR
54	Stephen Nicholas	674	43	35	81.4	265	6.16	9	4	69.20%	10	23.20%	3
53	Mike Peterson	484	29	24	82.8	223	7.6	0	4	0	10	34%	5
56	Sean Weatherspoon	429	35	31	88.6	365	10.4	3	4	42%	18	51%	7
50	Curtis Lofton	958	45	39	86.7	366	8.13	4	4	50%	19	42.20%	10
			152	129		1219	7.96	16	16	50%	57	37.25%	25

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better): The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Stephen Nicholas was by far the best LB in 3rd down stops. Stephen Nicholas had a 3rd down stop rate of 69.2%(9 stops /13 Attempts)

2. Mike Peterson with stop rate of 0% and Sean Weatherspoon with 42% stop rate finished as bottom 2 Linebackers in the 3rd down coverage. Curtis Lofton had a stop rate of 50% on 3rd downs; Lofton was burned by running backs like Ray Rice on third down situations.

3. All the LB combined for 29%(16/54) of the third downs. The middle of the field is a definite problem for the Falcons. Hopefully with Healthy Spoon and Lofton will make these numbers better.

1st Downs /Total Attempts (TA)%(Lower the Better).

1. Stephen Nicholas had the lowest YPA and the lowest 1st Downs/TA (23%) among Linebackers. Spoon had the highest YPA (10.4 YPA) and the highest 1st downs/TA %( 51%).

Stephen Nicholas was the best LB in the Pass coverage last year for the Falcons. The LB allowed almost the same Yardage as our top 2 CB's combined, this makes the defense vulnerable in the middle. Sean Weatherspoon was the worst in coverage last year, most likely because of the Injury.

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Comments

Wow

Perception vs Reality. We always talk about how good Spoon was and how Bad Decoud and Dunta were.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 10, 2011 11:09 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

That's because stats are evil

and people can’t make up their minds own their own, and so much other garbage I’ve heard on here for the past year.

DR was a very good DB for ATL last season. Spoon was not good in pass coverage in college and his first year was rough. He will improve.

Great post Vishnu.

by mwalex on Sep 10, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the thing with 'Spoon

Is that he’s athletic enough to play in coverage. I know I’ve believed he’ll be a factor there sooner rather than later, but I’m guilty of giving him too much credit.

by Dave Choate on Sep 10, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Blah, blah, blah...

You absolutely cannot use stats to determine the performance of individual players in a fluid game like football. Does not work. Every player depends too heavily on other players.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Sep 11, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess we'll just argue

Subjective opinions against subjective opinions with nothing to back up our points then

by Mosugo on Sep 11, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Unless you are privy to

the play/scheme called, exactly what each player’s responsibility was, etc. plus game film that would allow you to see whether that player executed what he was asked to do, a subjective opinion is all you have. Use advanced metrics to measure the overall team performance and coaching staff, not individual guys.

by J Tadpole on Sep 11, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

That's not to say

that some stuff isn’t obvious… missed tackles or dropped INTs, for example. But trying to assign responsibility to a single player stopping a first down is ludicrous and goes against everything football is about. Lots easier for each player to stop a first down if eight guys are in coverage than if there are only five, no?

by J Tadpole on Sep 11, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps

But less men rushing could give the QB more time, so it could conceivably be harder. Advanced metrics are not perfect, and they never tell the full story. All advanced metrics are is a cumulative subjective judgement done by one (presumably) reliable analyst. I would take that over the individual subjective judgements of the average fan.

by Mosugo on Sep 11, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Might want to check into this part

All advanced metrics are is a cumulative subjective judgement done by one (presumably) reliable analyst.

Often times they are done by math guys who don’t really understand the game. Baseball fans complain the same way about UZR and some of the other defensive metrics. Hard to say who should be where all the time.

by J Tadpole on Sep 11, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

C'mon, J!

We get it… you don’t like the “advanced stats” in football. But this is just ridiculous:

Often times they are done by math guys who don’t really understand the game

And a few weeks back, you dropped the living in mom’s basement line…

I don’t know much about the guys from Advanced NFL Stats, Pro-Football-Reference, or Pro Football Focus; but I know for a fact the guys from Football Outsiders are legitimate “football” minds. Creator Aaron Schatz goes to NFL Films every year to watch All-22 film with Greg Cosell and Ron Jawarski, and is a member of a panel each year at Sloan Sports Conference (where he can pick the brains of NFL GM’s, etc). Writer Mike Tanier also does work for NY Times (mostly humorous pieces) and NBC Sports (analysis) – his weekly Walkthrough column at the FBO site combines both funny observations and detailed play diagrams. Doug Farrar does scouting reports (and is a regular contributor) to Yahoo, does work for the Washington Post, etc. Both of those last 2 guys have watched plenty of film with Cosell, too. FBO also has a writer (Ben Muth) who was an All-conference O-Lineman at Stanford (he didn’t make it in the NFL, though). Former writer J.I. Halsell had previously worked as a Salary Cap Specialist for the Washington Redskins. Et Cetera.

When you completely dismiss them, you come across like this:

I think you probably won’t… but if you want to, here (and the included “FO Basics” links) is a good place to start to understand where their stats come from, their feelings on numbers vs. scouting, etc.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Sep 12, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't completely dismiss them.

I think there are some great new metrics out there to determine a team’s effectiveness in a particular area. There is no way I’m buying any individual player defensive metrics though. Again, baseball is a great sport for sabermetrics. An everyday player will go to the plate roughly 600 times in a season, seeing all manner of pitching. This means that, besides every at-bat being an individual battle, you have an adequate sample size to assume that the quality of pitching faced will even out, at least among players in a particular league.

Conversely, the average football game has about 120 snaps, 60 each side, meaning that a player who never comes off the field at all will be out there for about 960 snaps in a season. Obviously, a small percentage of these plays will be the “responsibility” of a particular player (which is almost always debatable anyway), naturally creating small sample sizes. Add to that all of the different schemes deployed by each team (say a CB is playing an inside technique, but a “quick out” is called, for example) and there is no way to statistically measure an individual player, at least not defensively. I can somewhat buy into it for offensive skill players assuming that you have some level of situational consistency and adequate sample size. Not defensive guys though.

by J Tadpole on Sep 12, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

And you are a testament to my earlier post

Glad not all fans have the same “opinion” as you.

by mwalex on Sep 11, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Front page worthiness level 100

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 10, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Thanks.

I can’t believe Dave just moved the post to Front page.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Sep 10, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I try to get as many worthy ones to the front page as possible

You do the work, you get the FP!

by Dave Choate on Sep 10, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Front page worthiness level 100

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Sep 10, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I've gotta agree here...

Very strong article that provides fact instead of fiction. I’m anxious to see how having a healthy linebacker core + additions on the DL + Sanders & Hayden improve our ability to defend against the pass.

by KJinCton on Sep 10, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Great job as always, V_F. Highly Rec'd.

These numbers back up Pro Football Focus’ evaluation of Sean Weatherspoon. They see a lot of talent there, but they haven’t been impressed with his coverage at all. Now, before everyone gets all huffy reminding me about the injuries, look back at the first drive of the Steelers game. I just went back and looked at the tape, and it seems to me that Sean was responsible for the two big completions to David Johnson to open the drive. I’m not picking on Sean, but it was essentially the same play and he bit hard on the play fake both times. In other words, after getting burned badly on the first play he repeated the same mistake on the very next play.

We all know and respect the talent that ‘Spoon has, but I really hope we see improvement. To me, Sean looks like a player that has gotten to this point with talent and instinct, I hope the coaches have let him know that’s not enough any more in this league.

by KMarch on Sep 10, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

I hear you.

I guess he deserves the benefit of doubt for last year because of the Injury. Hopefully he will step up this year.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Sep 10, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Injury???

Granted, injuries affect play. However, u guys do remember.. Spoon was a ROOKIE last year. Also a rookie in BVG scheme. I don’t think there’s a big argument brewing when I say BVG doesn’t run ur typical defense. For crying out loud the guy drops John Abraham into pass coverage!!! Spoon is a smartand talented person, otherwise he never would have made it to the pro level. Every player, or almost every player makes leaps and bounds from year one to year two. Let’s see what his numbers are after a year in the system and a hopefully injury free season.
Plus Mike Peterson was a starter last year. A little late in the career for that. Let MP be a super sub and let our other LBs settle into their roles. Not to mention the improved pass rush and deeper secondary. I practically guarantee a better pass defense this year barring major injury.

by birdwatch on Sep 10, 2011 6:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

3rd and 5

It’s almost a gimme that opponents are throwing to a RB who can receive out of the backfield.

This suddenly scares me about Forte. I hope the Falcons can improve that number.

Also, Mike Peterson with a stop rate of 0…ouch…

by ndnpride8806 on Sep 10, 2011 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

that's a possibility of any down

and one way to make it not 3rd-and-5, but 3rd-and-10 most of the time is to score early and make Cutler throw.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Sep 10, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Why are Peterson's number a surprise?

How many times was it posted last year that he sucks in pass coverage? He should not have been resigned this year, pure and simple.

by mwalex on Sep 10, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Considering the

Short offseason I think bringing back MP was a decent move. He knows the scheme very well. He’s a veteran. Let him help our young players out by mentoring and being a backup capable of playing all LB positions. When u have a solid backup ur regular guys don’t get as winded and are able to maintain a higher level of production. Which is the same reason I predict Biermam will have an awesome season. He was starting DE and on ST. Watch out for this guy…

by birdwatch on Sep 10, 2011 6:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

That slot could have been given to

a more serviceable sub. Not only can Petereson not play an entire game because of his age he is a liability in pass coverage. This was a move on convienence and because MS like Peterson.

by mwalex on Sep 10, 2011 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Also consider

Salary Cap, that’s a big one. MP came back at the vet minimum I believe. Hard to find a classy guy who will play his role and mentor the young LBs in much more than on the field matters.

by Whyte Bler 000 on Sep 10, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

In 2010 MP made $1.9MM

I don’t care what he resigned for because not resigning him would have opend up $1.9MM. Combine that with Adkins $480K and if both were cut that would have opened up right at $2.4M for a back up LB.

Do you really want Peterson being a technique mentor to the young LB’s? Especially since he’s awful in pass coverage?

by mwalex on Sep 10, 2011 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Mwalex...

That is a valid point I had not considered. But name veteran LB that we could have obtained for 2.4 mil. Keep in mind that said veteran would be fluent in the current D scheme and also be willing to come off the bench.
Leadership is an underestimated quality. Plenty of guys can play LB. How many will teach the ropes to their replacement?

by birdwatch on Sep 10, 2011 9:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Hopefully

we won’t have too many situations where MoPete has to be good in coverage. I think it was good to bring him back b/c, let’s face it, since he’s been here he’s had a nose for big plays. Plus, he can still sniff out a run pretty well. I doubt the plan is to let MP do too much covering anyway. God forbid there’s an injury, I think there’s still a platoon at the position where MoPete is in early, and either another sub comes in for passing downs or another starting LB moves over.

by KMarch on Sep 10, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure I could put together a list

if I thought people would take stock of it.

Being fluent in the current D scheme is not even a requirement to be weighted. What is needed is someone that plays hard, good football intelligence and willing to teach the your guys.

Peterson is not a leader, he is a role player and sub. He does exhibit good qualities but that does not make him a leader.

Where we disagree, and will continue to, is on the perceived value of Peterson. And who says that 2.4M would have to be spent on a “veteran leader”? That is, in my opinion, making a leap that has no merit.

by mwalex on Sep 10, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

MP is a valuable Backup.

Considering short offseason and also he can back up all three LB positions. He was not good in 3rd down coverage but he has the nose for the football. He is often at the right place at the right time to force a turnover, in fact he lead the team in preventing the opposing offenses from scoring because of turnovers or 4th down stops deep in the falcons side of the field. I don’t think Falcons will resign him next year though.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Sep 10, 2011 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Having a nose for the football is your opinion

He cause two fumble in 2009 and 2010 with none of those being recovered by ATL in 2009 and both recovered by ATL in 2010. He has had three INT’s over that time. I do not call that being stellar in forcing turnovers. I would like to see a link to the results on the prevention of scoring by opposing teams.

by mwalex on Sep 10, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Its not my opinion but I chart plays on Turnovers/stops by watching the tape.

Two Key Game changing plays by Peterson last year.
I can list 4 plays here where he made a play last year in the falcons side of the ball preventing a score( Could have been a FG or a TD).
1. Momentum shift against Saints in week 3. First drive in 3rd Quarter after saints received the ball.MP Forced fumble by knocking off Chris Ivory in Atlanta side of the field(ATL 32) on the first drive in 3rd qtr with scores tied. Saints took 6 Minutes, 10 Plays and had 2 3rd down conversions for 47 Yards on that play before the fumble. Falcons capitalized on it and took the lead for the first time.
2. Against GB he recovered a Fumble by Aaron Rodgers in the end zone. Score was 3-3 at that time. GB could have been ahead 10-3 if not for the recovery. It doesn’t often end well if GB and Arron Rodgers play with the lead. He was the only falcons player in the middle of 2 GB players. In a close first game with GB that was the difference between win and a loss.
3. Interception against PIT on ATL 27, Steelers had a good drive of 8 Plays,58 Yards with 3 first downs before the interception. For a game which went to OT, that play very well would have been the difference.
4. Against Carolina when Panthers started running like crazy with a 6 play and 67 yard drive. MP recovered a Fumble on ATL 25 and Panthers run game cooled off after that stop.
I have a complete list of these stops and Turnovers for all the Defense, William Moore is close second in these types or turnovers/stops preventing the Opposing offenses from scoring. BG leads on the Points scored by Falcons after a turnover.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Sep 10, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Okay, then let's put this into context

You sited four plays where Peterson had an impact. Based on 484 snaps that means he was an impact player 0.86% of the time. Or, ATL gave up 288 points last season and MP’s stopping four scores equates to 12 to 28 points. That is a variance of 4.2% to 9.7%. No relevant impact.

On the plays you sited – ATL lost to PIT, not a positive effect; CAR was not going to beat ATL regardless of that play. So, two of the plays had a positive effect in a game that ATL won.

Yeah, he’s an amazing LB.

by mwalex on Sep 11, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Nobody said he was amazing

We were saying that in a short offseason paying the veterans minimum for a guy that can stopthe run and already knows the defense is not a bad idea.

P.s. MPete was the only Falcon last year with an Into,

by birdwatch on Sep 11, 2011 10:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

sorry

P.s. Mike P was the only Falcon with an INT,FF, and a sack last year. If NFL.com is accurate in their stat keeping

by birdwatch on Sep 11, 2011 10:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And your point is?

That makes him “special” somehow?

by mwalex on Sep 11, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Some numbers on Zone Coverage.

If you are wondering why BVG likes to do it. The zone coverage last year was pretty effective if the guy in the coverage was not Jamal Anderson.

JA 55 had 3 3rd down stops.
KB 71 had 5 3rd down stops,1 conversion and 1 TD.
CP had 1 first down but no 3rd down conversions.
Jamal Anderson no stops with 3 1st downs allowed.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Sep 10, 2011 10:03 PM EDT reply actions