Playing with Fire: An Argument for the Burner
Dating back to last year and continuing into this preseason, there has been a good deal of debate about Michael Turner. The discussion has gone from hemming and hawing about his rumored ineffectiveness to now a handful of Falcoholics calling for him to be "phased out" of the Falcons offense, or worse, cut outright. While I cannot truthfully admit that I'm completely satisfied with the efficiency of the run game, I think it's still way too early to be calling for the Burner's head.
Because much of the recent outrage centers on his performance in the preseason, I have broken down the tape of all 7 runs from Turner against the Steelers. Additionally, I'm going to make a case why removing Turner from the Falcons offense would not be wise (to say the least). Join me after the jump for the breakdown. Disclaimer: This is a longer than normal read.
via 0.tqn.com
As we all know and remember fondly, Michael Turner was the prized free agent acquisition of the entire NFL in 2008. He went on to have a monstrous year that led the Falcons to the playoffs. However, that season also doomed Turner in the eyes of many, mainly because NFL pundits and those who consume what NFL pundits have to say believed no back could ever effectively return from the curse of 350 carries. And though, indeed, Turner did get hurt during the next season, he was averaging more yards per carry (4.9) than his fantastic 2008 (4.5).
But that's all history now, and as NFL fans (particularly Falcons fans) are so quick to remind players: What has Turner done for us lately?
Once again, after an exceptional 2010 campaign (1371 yds, 12 TDs, 4.1 yards/carry) - on essentially 1.5 legs, no less - Turner is being criticized in the preseason for looking slow, out of shape, or unwilling to hit the holes. This is a myth that I believe gets conflated with all the...ahem...dislike for Mike Mularkey. Additionally, there are some who seemingly willfully ignore the job of the Oline's responsibilities in the run game. So, let's go to the most recent game against the Steelers and look at all 7 runs of Turner to see what's up.
1st Attempt, 9:35 in the 1st Q: Run off the RG where there is a great hole. Mughelli makes his usual fantastic seal block to spring Turner who blows by a LB and gains 10-11 yards before being brought down with the help of the Safety in great position. It's possible that Turner could have done a little more here, really lowered the boom on his tackler maybe, but this is the preseason and that would be ill-advised.
2nd Attempt, 9:20 in the 1st Q: Run is right up the gut (Every Falcons fan immediately cringes, and a demon gets its horns). The Oline gets little to no push at all, but the real problem is Timmons comes in from the opposite side absolutely untouched. Why? Mike Johnson and Tyson Clabo block the same man, allowing Timmons to rush free. Someone missed their assignment there, and I'm not so sure it wasn't Clabo. Result of the play is no gain, or maybe even a yard lost.
3rd Attempt, 5:33 in the 1st Q: Run to the left side which looks promising. Turner hits the whole immediately, but once again an OLB comes from the opposite side of the field to make the tackle. Who was responsible for that man? Tyson Clabo by my accounts. Turner gets as much as he could for a 4 yard gain.
4th Attempt, 14:03 in the 2nd Q: Run to the Right side is absolutely stuffed. Not only does Turner not get through, but Ovie Mughelli can't find a seam. Turner bounces off his FB and losses 2-3 yards. Again, on replay it seems there's a miscommunication with the Oline. The hole forms initially between the RT and RG, Ovie sets dead aim for it, but before he can get there, Clabo either yanks his man (or is yanked by his man) into the hole breaking up the momentum. There might be critics that question why Turner didn't improv. I don't blame him here; the hole was there initially, and he's following one of the best FBs in the NFL.
5th Attempt, 10:19 in the 2nd Q: Interesting formation where Ovie, Snelling, and MT are all in the backfield. Ovie is sent out to the left, decoying for a fake handoff to Snelling who then goes to set a block for Turner. Steelers had 8 men in the box at snap (formation calls for it), and they do well off the snap. The OLine is blown up, specifically Sam Baker (believe it was 72 on the jersey) who is immediately pushed back, and who's man comes off Baker's block to tackle Turner who gains 2 yards. Not much more really there for him, in my opinion.
6th Attempt, 6:36 in the 2nd Q: MT is the single back in the BIG formation. Play is to the right side, Polomalu was blitzing on the play and makes it through, but Turner gets by him. THe Oline has good push here and Turner hits the hole strong. A missed block on the backside by Baker ends up getting to Turner for the tackle after a good gain of 4-5 yards.
Final Attempt, later in 2nd Q (oops): MT is single back again and the play runs off the LT. The OLine is surgical in their blocking, especially Baker, and Julio comes in to throw a crucial block that springs Turner out wide. Turner is face-to-face with Polomalu who makes the play after a gain of 2-3 yards. Maybe another RB makes a move and gets by Polomalu there, I think it's easier imagined than done. I also think were this a game of significance Turner would have drove right into him rather than trying to jump over him. This was a potential big play, and the only one really where you can put blame on Turner.
To conclude, the OLine struggled with their run-blocking against the Steelers. You know, that team from PIT who has been the #1 Ranked Rush DEF the last couple of years? It happens. Turner maybe could have done more on one or two of his runs, but again, why risk it?
I've got a lot more to say on the topic (and more general observations about the game which I'll express in the continued discussion in the comments, hopefully), but this is already growing larger than expected. All this has been to say, don't panic. Better yet, don't give up on Michael Turner.
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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All good points Staph infection guy
and I too lay the blame on the offensive line. I too noticed the Baker play on re-watching the first half today. Yeah, Steelers are tough but people do move the ball on them. Even if they didn’t sometimes our team has to impose its’ will on the opponent. Be big or go home. To win the SB you have to win tough road games. You just gotta do it.
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice.
His legs are moving well when he has space.
I don’t get the slow talk.
I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl
I don't understand slow talkers either.
Slack-jawed yokels.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Same story as last year.
MT33 will be a top yard back again. My over under is 1,200 yards I take the over.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 28, 2011 6:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
They got to stop throwing him the ball.
Is like 2-20 on receptions, it’s a wasted down.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 28, 2011 6:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
This is a good post K. Thanks
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 28, 2011 6:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I don't think he should go anywhere.
Late in the game when we have a small lead and we need him to close out games, he’ll deliver.
Great Breakdown
Turner is a guaranteed 1200 yard RB this year. Plus we will have three 1000 yard receivers. The offense is going to be deadly!
Hard to say if that's true about the passing yards
But all indications point to a very possible outcome. That would be dirty.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 28, 2011 7:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We pretty much know what we get with Turner
He will feast on weaker run D’s and go a little hungry against tough ones. Sometimes starving. In his first game w/us he gained 220 yards, 2nd game, against TB, 42. Next game against KC over 100, then Car 56. Next season 66 against Miami, 105 against Car, 56 against NE, 97 against SF.2010, 42 against Pit, 75 on 9 carries against the cards. He is a good running back who has been overused in both good and bad situations. If the guy isn’t rolling in a game, maybe you don’t keep doing what’s not working. If he is rolling and were up big, maybe we rest him a bit for later in the season and give other guys some much needed reps. I’m hoping his carries drop to 17-20 a game this season with Snelling, JQuizz and JJ reaping the benefits of the extra 10-15 plays that are freed up.
Honestly, I'll take that
Truth is, there are very, very few RBs in the league that can crank out 80 to 100 yards per game on 4.5 yards/carry. The ones who do are the big money guys.
Turner may not be the best RB, but he’s a great punishing back that will help wear down the front 7 and open up lanes for our TE and slot receivers.
If Quizz can contribute significantly, it will take some of the pressure off of his shoulders as well – which should help keep his legs fresh.
17 a game?
That adds up to 272 across a season. That’s less than 300. Didn’t you know that Michael Turner has to have more than 300 carries every season? Why do you think Smith kept forcing him back in 2009 even though he was clearly injured.
2009 was such an anomaly year
We lost both Norwood and Turner for long stretches, and Snell has never proven he can be a starting back (he’s a great backup, though).
I think Turner wanted to come back – I don’t think it was so much Smitty pushing him out there. Remember, there are contract incentives for these guys to play, and I’m sure Turner being out was costing him some nice change.
Your right Mosugo! Curse my logical thinking. Must channel MM......duhhhhhhh.
Must recalculate. Ok let’s give him 30-35 a game. Including 3 passes a game, 2 OC which will be dropped and the third he’ll get his legs chopped form underneath him. That should give him a decent enough chance for injury and retarding JJ and JQuizz’s growth to boot! It just seems too easy.
Quizz is looking lik a great pick up.
If we get 3 starters out of this draft OT was a damn good one. Jones, Bosher, Quizz.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 28, 2011 9:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Our two 7th rounders
They may not be starters this year, but Matthews and Jackson look to have real potential. Another year or two and one of those guys may break into the starting lineup.
Part of the problem is Turner creates his own problems
Since he doesn’t have the ability to bounce it outside or go out for passes, teams are able to crash their ends and play their OLBs to the inside. It makes for more plays where there is no hole. There’s a lot more to whether or not there’s a hole than just how the OL blocks. For reference, think of how often there were huge holes when teams were worried about Vick on the option route. That shows cleanly how big of a deal it is to keep the ends and OLBs honest. With Turner in the game, that doesn’t happen…and it makes it harder on Turner.
I’m ok with him, because he will bust through holes that are cleanly there, and he’ll keep moving forward, but he averages less than 4ypc in about 60% of his games, and that doesn’t help the team in general. I’d like to see him at his SD weight, where he had a little more wiggle and speed to the corner.
Otherwise, I think there are 15 backs in the league that can do a similar thing, with better versatility (if you spell them a little.) He’s fine, but he’s not elite, and his lack of versatility is hard to work around in terms of tipping off the D. If he were 230 (still big for a 5’10 guy) and with the lateral agility to bounce it outside, I think you’d see a way different run game from us, and way more holes open up inside.
If you give me the over/under on yards, I might take the over. If you are talking about over/under on efficiency, yards per carry, etc., I’d likely take the under.
by takeitdown on Aug 28, 2011 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Very good points.
But that’s why play-action was invented. It should help fix those problems. He may be creating problems for himself but that attention to him doesn’t have to be seen as a hindrance for the entire offense. Play-action would take advantage of the keyed in ends and backers. We should be able to complete passes in the vacated areas and eventually make them more honest (thus opening up running lanes for Turner…in theory).
by A. "Falmouth" Thomas on Aug 28, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Great point
And that’s a string positive to take from last nights game: the play-action was spectacular. Unfortunately, Matty couldn’t capitalize, but he will.
by KMarch on Aug 28, 2011 11:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's a solid counter.
However, I do think MT can go outside as long as it is designed off-tackle (not tosses or sweeps which are mostly unsuccessful in the League anyway). That last run from the PIT game demonstrated it, and its something he seems to do at least once a game.
You are right about bouncing an inside design outside, though. That’s not his game, and, yes, maybe that lack of versatility hurts him.
by KMarch on Aug 28, 2011 11:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Rec'd takeitdown
I pretty much agree w/ everything you said there.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
takeitdown has a great point.......
you are exactly right…….and further, no one is putting 8 men in the box to stop Turner anymore – they don’t have to – you no longer have to stop Turner to stop the Falcons, like you did in ’08. Now you have to stop Ryan to stop the Falcons and that is what every team is doing – and it puts undue pressure on Ryan.
Further, with Turner being a non-factor in the passing game (I posted the stats earlier that bare that out) teams don’t even really have to dedicate an LB to him………they can blitz that LB knowing that a dump off to Turner will result in little to no gain. Turner’s lack of explosion gives every defense an advantage – they only have to focus on Ryan now.
by AuxiliaryHusky on Aug 29, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with that
go back and look at last season and preseason of this year. Many of the teams did stack the box against ATL. PIT definately had the 7 to 8 defenders in the box.
Great write up KM
Comments have been made about MT not doing well against good D’s. I don’t see it that way. I don’t think the OL blocks well against good D’s or the blocking schemes don’t work well against good D’s. Turner is limited in how fast he can change direction I don’t think that’s the problem. If you look at the games last season where MT played poorly it was against the better run D’s, but the RB is as only as good as the DL.
There are a lot of other issues that can be brought up but suffice it to say that I think that it’s more of a schematic issue than something lacking with MT.
We definitely shouldn't just remove him from the roster.
I say, let him play till the deadline, see how he does…and if he shows no presence like the ’08 Turner, then trade him.
TNT should've treated Lebron's return to Cleveland game like 2k11 and cut the game off after the Cavs were down by 30. lol
And what would you expect to get?
If he’s not traded for a #1 RB then what do you do about the big hole that just opened up in the running game?
Ummm.
Maybe package him with a solid vet like Mike Peterson and get a pretty promising running back.
TNT should've treated Lebron's return to Cleveland game like 2k11 and cut the game off after the Cavs were down by 30. lol
I wouldn't be concerned about his looks in this instance.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
No one is going to
trade anything for Peterson. This is probably his last season and will be a back up and is terrible against the pass.
A promising RB is not what ATL needs this season. It’s best to stay with MT for this season and make changes afterwards.
Damn if the Titans ran a 4-3
We could package MT33 and Chauncey up and have just about enough to pick up CJ2k. Of course in sure the Titans would still want a pick.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 29, 2011 12:32 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
The Titans do run a 4-3
But that wouldn’t even be close to enough. A 29 year old running back on the way down and a defensive end that might not make our roster for a 25 year old running back who is one of only 6 players to ever rush for 2000 yards in a season. Add in the fact that Johnson wants to be one of the highest paid players in the game and this just doesn’t make sense.
I do not hate Turner
But I don’t feel like he runs hard enough, the dudes lacking some swagger. It seems like he gives up on some plays as of late( not the preseason, last season). I feel that if we give him 20 cars a game. 13 of those should be in the 2nd half.
by Dirtybirdz90 on Aug 29, 2011 12:45 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Lacking Swagger?
Not an important quality to my starting RB, though I do think your wrong for what its worth. Quick, someone get his Swag rafting off Madden!
by KMarch on Aug 29, 2011 7:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ESPN suggests Turner is on his way down.
It’s insider only, but I’d venture to guess it echos some of the thoughts around here.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 2:02 AM EDT reply actions
SLIGHT decline MAYBE
But burner is top 10! 1000 yard shawty, he can’t go outside, but he can put a linebacker or his ass. He cant catch passes so what he doesn’t really fumble and once he gets a head of steam it’s like a defender is tackling himself. People kill me with the trade turner thing. No running back in history could make a positive out of some of the bad waste of plays that he’s ran on. Smh he gets little to no love. I’d decline on purpose if I was so unappreciated. Seriously
by DEMBIRDZCUZ! on Aug 29, 2011 6:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
shawty?
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
I wouldn't call him top 10
BenJarvus Green Ellis with 100 more carries is pretty much the same player. He’s a solid player for a power run team. The only decision is if we will still be a power run team.
I understand their point
But ESPN has a habit of solely looking at player stats (isn’t this basically an article for fantasy?). What I’m pointing to here is that Turner seems to be fine when he gets the chances, its just there are also other factors involved that are being overlooked by some.
by KMarch on Aug 29, 2011 7:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He ain't as good as he once was
but he’s good enough. Just need to get Snelling more reps to keep him fresher.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Where is this coming from?
It seems that people can only view this from one perspective and that MT is one the down hill slide. The OL did not block well against good run D’s, pure and simple. It seems that no one puts ANY stock in that fact.
I do
Any football fan will tell you that guys like Emmitt Smith benefited from 1) great O-line blocking and 2) a great leading fullback. Turner has done well with what he’s been given. The guy consistently drags two or 3 players an extra 2 to 3 yards when he gets tackled. You can’t blame him for not being able to run through a pile of 10 guys with no lane.
He absolutely doesn't look as fast as he did in '08.
That really isn’t all that surprising, really. Most RBs do slow down after a couple years of the pounding and the little injuries that go along with it. Plus he’s 29- I know he didn’t get a ton of carries in San Diego, but he did practice and age is age. He’s still a good back but he’ll be 30 in February; in the NFL that’s about when the “down hill slide” starts in earnest.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
MT is also heavier
now than in 2008. I agree that RB’s have a expiration date based on age and use but I do not think that is the primary issue in this case. I still believe the blocking schemes are a large issue.
He may be heavier.
Whatever the reason, he looks slower. Blocking is a separate issue.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
A RB's performance can't really be measured statistically
or at least it shouldn’t be. You have to really watch film to see what holes were and weren’t there, and whether he hit them and how fast. No question he looks slower though. Stats show how well the team is running the ball. Even YPC shouldn’t be compared RB-to-RB unless you know that the same exact plays are being called for each in the same exact situations, out of the same formations, and with the same personnel.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
That is a good point
and I’m not arguing the point, for the most part. If you compare DVOA for RB’s that is a good gauge for a head to head comparision, as is Success Rate.
All of that said that is the reason why I’m not ready to say the issue is solely MT’s.
Success Rate
is very interesting when applied to Turner. In each of his three years with the Falcons, his success rate has hovered around 47%.
What is the driver there?
MT is as good as he’s ever going to be or have the blocking schemes not eveloved.
Based on Clabo’s performance so far I wonder if we resigned the wrong guy?
Seems to me
That’s the Falcons big unanswerable question.
by KMarch on Aug 29, 2011 1:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pitty Pat
I wish he would just take the ball and run hard. He seems to take the ball, and keep dancing up to the line. I know some would say there wasn’t a hole, and he’s trying to find one. He (Turner) doesn’t seem to play off of his build. He’s a bulldozer/power back, not a speed/moves back. He seems to be trying to be a speed/moves back. Enough already ! I’m rooting for you, but power/push through.
Steelers front 3
The Steelers front 3 exist to destroy blocking schemes so the LB corps can feast on the openings they create. They are very good at it. There is a reason teams pass on us.
Any plays that are designed to leave a LB unblocked because the LB shouldn’t be fast enough to get into the play may have problems when Timmons is on the field. He is as much an athletic freak, and I mean this in a good way, as Troy. When Troy retires, expect the defence to be retooled to take advantage of Timmons’ skills.
Jaquizz that kid looks good. Between him and Turner you should have a good run game.
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by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on Aug 29, 2011 9:10 AM EDT reply actions
Great feedback
and I agree, when I watched the tape back, I was astounded by Timmons. He’s critically underrated (though I’m sure that’s not the case in PIT), even though he’s a name most NFL fans know.
I haven't watched this nearly as closely as you have
But I would assume the back-side OLB in play 3 wouldn’t be Clabo’s responsibility. My guess would be either the RG (since he’s not covered up pre-snap and could climb to the 2nd level more easily), or that he was intentionally left unblocked (the LB is not supposed to be able to get in front of the play).
Either way, great job on this post.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I'm sorry - but I have to strongly disagree Dave
Dave – I think I may be the one who coined “phased out” in relationship to Turner, because it certainly is what I’ve been suggesting.
Here are the numbers from last season 2010:
Carries: 1st in NFL
Rushing Yards: 3rd in NFL
Carries of less than 2 yards: 1st in NFL (2nd isn’t close)
Yards Per Carry: 4.1 – 10th among the top 15 leading rushers in 2010
Receptions and Recieving yards: 15th in both among top 15 rushers in 2010
Please explain to me how we can have a FEATURE BACK who is a non-factor in the passing game and very mediocre (yards per carry – and trending down) in the running game?
When you add to that the fact that he just plain looks disinterested out there, and tip-toes around like the 2nd coming of TJ Duckett, you have someone that frankly needs to be replaced or at least phased out as the feature back.
The only time I EVER see Turner make positive yards is when he has a hole. I watch Quiz get 5 yards routinely when he has no hole. Why is this even up for debate?
We cannot use “explosive offense” and “Michael Turner” in the same sentence – its just not possible.
by AuxiliaryHusky on Aug 29, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
Obviously disagree here
You’re already got your mind made up, so I’ll leave everything but one thing alone.
I watch Quiz get 5 yards routinely when he has no hole. Why is this even up for debate?
I’m not sure anyone beyond OSU fans can say they’ve seen ‘Quizz do anything routinely. ’Quizz has yet to have a running attempt with the first team OFF against a first string DEF. I’m hoping that ‘Quizz has a bright future here with the Falcons, but that’s not a very strong argument right now. As to MT only getting positive yardage with holes; that’s the case for nearly all NFL RBs, and Turner is especially value b/c he can often drag 2 or 3 defenders with him for at least a yard or two gain.
by KMarch on Aug 29, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Did you see Quizz get
5 YPC against the 1st team D’s. No you didn’t. Again, it’s all MT’s issue. I think it’s funny how people cannot look at the entire picture and focus on facets instead.
If you look at Snellings YPC over the past few years it is in the same ball park as MT’s. Is that a function of the RB or the blocking scheme’s?
KMarch's post
I actually agree with you.
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Though I should note that I FP'ed KMarch's post because it's awesome, even if I don't agree
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I will stop littering if it makes you feel better
As I said, it’s an excellent post. But I’m of the school of thought that says generally speaking, the Falcons offensive line blocks pretty well. It’s admittedly a bigger concern this year with Reynolds taking over at RG, but I think Turner has a share of the blame for his strugglin’.
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by Dave Choate on Aug 29, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
this might seem silly
But I seriously think we have to consider starting Quizz. Now give him starter carries? No just start him and bring in Turner during certain running plays. I means isn’t that what we do now? Bring in Turner and Ovie and either run up the middle or PA. I think if we started Quizz we could do that and more, screens , draws and he picked up the blitz well for a rookie RB that’s 5’6. Besides Quizz is looking like a better fit to our new offense
by Marques D Chaney on Aug 29, 2011 11:41 AM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
Really?
He is a rookie. He was drafted in a lock out shortened offseason. He has only pass blocked with the first string. We are not and should not start or think of starting Quizz. He has looked great running and I am hoping the world that he can become a starter, but this is ridiculous. He is a change of pace, why would you want to have him out there on the first play of the game anyway?
by MustangFalcFan on Aug 29, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree completely
Quizz has great potential but he has spent little if any time playing against #1 D’s. Drawing conclusions like this based on preseason games is setting yourself up for dissapointment.
honestly
I think he fits the O a lil better than Turner n yes i know he hasn’t ran against first team D n yes I know he’s been in the lock out situation but it was just a thought..
by Marques D Chaney on Aug 29, 2011 12:07 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
And it is a good thought
but it’s hard to see it happening and it working out for the entire season. Who knows, you might be onto something though.
like I said
He WOULD NOT get starter type carries just in there to open up the O make some plays take a 5 yard carry into 50 basically just like MJD
by Marques D Chaney on Aug 29, 2011 12:17 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
This wont happen, YET.
MDC you are thinking like I am. Quizz is a better fit for our offense, but he’s just not ready yet. He needs to backup MT this year and then maybe next year this offense takes that next step by adding him as the starter to disguise their plays to the defense. I think we need both of them because they both have different skill sets and both are very useful in an NFL season. It wil be nice to be able to pound teams or finesse them to death with screens and draw plays. The addition of Quizz will make this offense better, but it will be a slow process, but hopefully come playoff time, it will have all gelled together to become very lethal.
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by ATLsince1972 on Aug 29, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
great point
Think that makes the most sense. You think Turners gonna be here next year tho? I mean to be honest Turner might not be here by week 6. I mean I love The Burner but the NFL is about producing now and if he doesn’t have at least 300 yards by week 5 he’s out.
by Marques D Chaney on Aug 29, 2011 12:27 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I could see him being traded if he doesn't produce like the falcons want him too,
OR, if Quizz just performs at such a high level the team has no choice but to make a change.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 29, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
How can he be out by week 6?
Do you really think that ATL would trade their #1 RB during the season? When has this FO ever done that? If they were going to do something it would ahve done by now.
we havent been in this situtation so who knows?
by Marques D Chaney on Aug 29, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Not worth trading Turner by week 6
For what we could get for him. A 4th-5th round pick for Turner and we’re left with just Quizz and Snelling. Even assuming they could handle the load between them; one injury and dreams of the Superbowl, and probably even the playoffs, are gone.
I'm not arguing that point
I agree that he should get between five and fifteen touches a game. I can see Quizz being used more then Snelling as long as MY stays healthy.
I've been pretty critical of Turner
(probably even in ‘08, since I wasn’t a huge fan of the signing)… but the problem is that he is still clearly the best option on the team. Snelling’s YPC has been about a half a yard less than Turner’s each of the last 3 seasons, Quizz is a Rookie and tiny (I don’t trust him for more than an occasional change of pace this season), and Johnson/Smith are… not good.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Aug 29, 2011 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Snelling needs more carries though
if for no other reason than to keep Turner fresh.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
That I agree with
MT should be limited to around 250 carries with Snelling and Quizz getting the remainder of the touches.
yeah, I probably agee with that
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Quizz is not Tiny
That is a mistake people make about him. He weighs 198 in a 5’6" frame. He is thick! Not tiny
No
I understand that he’s thick for his height. He’s still tiny for an NFL Running Back. He’s (positive comparison) an even smaller version of Maurice Jones-Drew or DeAngelo Williams (who both had questions about their size when they came into the league).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I think I might disagree
He is short, but not tiny. His stature will be an advantage in two ways: 1) He will be more durable because of his low center of gravity and 2) Defenders will have difficulty getting a square hit on him because of his shifty style. Also, he is difficult to see from behind the O-line which is an advantage. Even coach Smith said that last part himself.
What you are saying about him has been said in HS, College, and now the NFL. I know the NFL is the elite and a little bit different, but in time he will be an every down back and prove to be durable. The falcons got the steal of the draft when he fell to the 5th round because of his height.
He was a workhouse in college the three years he started and only had one injury. He is as reliable as it gets.
This kid is special…enjoy!
I hope you're right... I really do
But the history of the NFL says you’re wrong. Joe Morris is the only guy I could find that really made it as a “starting” RB that was a similar size. I’ll be ecstatic if Quizz simply becomes an effective option as a 3rd down/ change-up runner over the next 4 years.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Warrick Dunn
5’9" 180, probably could be considered “smaller” than Quizz, who is 5’6" almost 200.
Dunn, to my knowledge, did not have elite breakaway speed, but was one of the best at squirting through seemingly impossible holes made in the OL with very good elusiveness. He has almost 11,000 yards rushing, not to mention 4000+ yards receiving in his career. He’s been known as one of the smaller, elusive backs who had more than 200 carries several seasons in his career, too.
I don’t know if Dunn started by the general sense, but he had nearly 2700 carries in his 12 year career, so he certainly wasn’t riding the bench.
I think Quizz can do it. Maybe not this year, but soon. He probably isn’t a 300 carry type guy, but Dunn could be a good example of how many carries to give him.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn is a completely different size/style back
Dunn’s BMI was 26.6; Quizz is like 32+.
Looks like Dunn had over 200 Carries 8 seasons, and 265+ in 3 seasons; but even if you want to count him as an example of a small guy making it as a lead back, that makes TWO.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Is that the same BMI used for nutrition?
Where in the heck did you find that info?
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, that's on your link
That’s an odd thing to have on there. Interesting.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
fun tool for comparisons like this...
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
That is really interesting.
I do think Dunn and Quizz are similar, though. Quizz is tougher/heavier, but his core strength allows him to be shifty in spite of his weight.
Quizz, a feature back? Probably not. However, Jamaal Charles had stupid YPC last year (due to his immense talent, I’m sure) and only got around 200 carries (230, actually). If we could split time like that, I’d be happy.
But we shall see.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
CHarles, excellent bring up
I have said I thought Quizz was a cross between Dunn and Charles. Besides, why does it matter if there have only been 2 backs like him in the past that have become every down backs? That, in noway, is saying that Quizz cant become one. New elite type players that people have never seen before come into the league all the time guys, lets give the little guy a chance first before we dismiss him as a possible starter some day. Its obvious he has the skills and talent to do it, lets just see if he can do it first before we say theres no way he will.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 31, 2011 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope I am right as well.
…as far as NFL history, there can be a first time for everything. I think at the very least he will be an effective 3rd down/ change up runner. I think that will be his role this season. If Turner gets hurt, I think Quizz is capable of picking up where Turner left off.
In addition to his size (lack thereof) Quizz is a freak of nature. He has a good chance to be better than those other small backs in NFL history.
Exactly,Just like VICK
he was a first of his kind. With this kind of thinking he would have never been believed in.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 31, 2011 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, come on...
Surely you remember Randall Cunningham, right? Their first 6 seasons are almost identical (kciV, for comparison).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I couldn't agree more
The Falcons will have to bite the bullet and go get another back, preferably by next season, who can handle the load. I don’t want to be messing with Turner as a 300+ carry back at age 30, especially with some of the neon blinking signs we’ve seen the last couple seasons.
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Dave, a question
Are you saying that you believe the issue is primarily due to MT and not blocking? I’m curious as to your opinion. It’s interesting because Snelling has always averaged 0.5 to 0.6 yards less per carry than MT. Now if the arguement is made that Snelling needs more carries to see what he can do I’ll fall back on 2009. Snelling only had 30 fewer carries than MT and still averaged 0.6 yards per carry less than MT. Does that infer than both Snelling and MT are the same caliber of runner? Or is there a non-RB issue that is effecting them both?
Could it not just indicate
That Turner is better than Snelling?
That is an option
But it seems that isn’t what many posters think. It’s also interesting that MT is washed up or too old or over used and needs to be put down when the only thing Snelling can do over MT is catch passes. Hmmm,… it’s just interesting.
Grass is always greener
If it were the other way around people would be calling for Turner, the hard charging backup who might not be as versatile but can get the hard yards
by Mosugo on Aug 29, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it's a mix of many things
The blocking could be better, running Michael Turner/Jason Snelling into the pile over and over again is moronic, etc. I also think that Snelling is not the best runner out there, though his versatility recommends him.
But I do think Turner is part of the problem. They’re putting an awful lot of miles on him, and he’s now been banged up for large chunks of the last two seasons. His effectiveness has declined each year since the Falcons got him, as well. Again, scheme and blocking have something to do with that…but he was so good in 2008 with the exact same scheme, or one even friendlier to pounding him 300+ times a season.
The Falcons need to change things up a little bit, ensure they’re setting up Turner/Big Snell/Rodgers to succeed, and begin drawing down Turner’s carries a little bit. He’s almost 30 and he’s only going to slowly decline from here.
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by Dave Choate on Aug 29, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is not to say that Snelling should be the featured back
I think that particular ship has sailed. What I’m advocating for is for the Falcons to play it smart this season and draft/trade for/sign another back in 2012.
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by Dave Choate on Aug 29, 2011 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why do you suppose that
MT’s effectiveness has dropped over the past three years? If the schemes never change then it’s easier to defense each year. Hasn’t this repeated itself before, somewhere else? Hmmm?
The mix of things
I tend to agree with Dave on this one. I do think it’s the mix of things we’ve seen. The combination of injuries, up-the-gut runs, heavy carries and yes – sometimes poor scheming – have added up to less effectiveness.
I like Quizz, but he’s not an every down back. I like Snelling in a backup role, but truth is, he’s not that much younger than MT and though he’s a better receiver out of the backfield (ie, he can actually catch), he doesn’t have quite the power or speed that Turner does.
However, I’m not sure we address the RB future in 2012. I think we’ve got to find our next TE before that point – and depending on Baker’s performance this year – we may be looking for another LT. Babs is also crossing over into “aged veteran” territory, so it might not be a bad idea to eye-ball another DT in the next draft or two.
Also consider the free agents we have next year
Abraham, Gonzalez, Lofton, DeCoud, Douglas and Biermann. Not all of them will be back.
Good point
I think we’ll keep Lofton, Douglas and Biermann. If DeCoud has a good season, I think we’ll wrap him up to.
Honestly, I think Gonzo is going to retire and Abe is a wild-card. If he has another 10+ sack season, we may offer a 1-year contract – but I can’t see anything more than that.
disagree about Abe
I honestly think now with the addition of RE that Abe can now play at least 3 more years. Plus why would Abe sign a 1 year deal? Mosrt players want at least 2-3 year deals at that age so they can at least get a little security before they retire, even if it means changing teams. However I dont thin he wants to go anywhere else though.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 31, 2011 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Some knowledge about Quizz
I am an Oregon State Fan and have seen Quizz’s every snap in college. Last year he ran behind a poor offensive line which negatively affected his numbers from his previous two seasons. Despite there being few holes to run through, I have never seen someone make something out of nothing with regularity. He has a unique skillset. You will soon see the broad skill set this kid has. Other than top end speed he has everything else in spades. The only rub is he tends to get caught from behind on big plays because his first instinct is to cut back.
Don’t be surprised if down the road he becomes a starter. People make the mistake that because of his height he can’t be an every down back and that he is not a between the tackles runner. He is a bowling ball that is very durable and prefers to run up the middle in a zone blocking scheme so he can free lance.
Turner should be the starter for now, but Quizz will be a good change of pace. Eventually they will have to put more Quizz on the field in future seasons because he is just too effective to keep off the field.
KMarch, didn’t Quizz run a bit against the PITT 1st team D??
He was in with the 1st String OFF
on a few snaps, but never carried the ball until the 2nd String OFFs and DEFs came out. I did notice that ‘Quizz was a willing and able pass-blocker. Really likes to use his helmet to pop the rushers. Unfortunately, at least once he lowered his head and ended up missing the rusher as a result. I think he’s strong enough to be decent in pass protection, but I think they’re going to have clean up some of his techniques.
thanks for the clarification
…I did not see the entire second half…I just heard from other bloggers that he ran a bit against the 1st team PITT D. I thought he did well at pass-blocking the other night from what I saw. He is still learning the offense, so I imagine he will get better over the next month.
BTW he was very good in college at pass-blocking.
One other thing about Quizz. He not only never registered a fumble in college (the one he was credited with was a swing pass that was thrown poorly), but also he has never put the ball on the turf…not one time! That is such a huge plus that gets overlooked about him.
Didn't PIT's first string D stay on the field for the first series of our 2nd string O?
That was also when Quizz got his carries, was it not?
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
For at least the first series, yes
And during that series, Quizz was impressive. So, he did have time against a starting D – and without the benefit of a full starting offense either.
You're right he was in on the first series of the 2nd half against PITs 1st DEF
but Snelling did the majority of the work. ’Quizz had a 4-5 yard rush and a 4 yd reception.
I just think Quizz brings more to the O as far as explosive plays. The playbill would open up and the D wouldn’t know what to expect..
by Marques D Chaney on Aug 29, 2011 12:10 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
that's awesome
Jaquizz Rodgers now starring

The Graduate (from Oregon State)
by KMarch on Aug 29, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
How about we at least look at what the Packers are doing with Ryan Grant
Ryan Grant, like Turner does not look as explosive as the other 2 backs in Packer camp. They have come out and said that Grant will split time – he’s not the feature……you can’t tell me that James Starks has a bigger upside (running/receiving) than Snelling – yet he’s getting 50/50 time because of the obvious decline of Grant.
Don’t most of us agree that Turner is in decline and that we need to see a spike back up 4.5ypc in order to believe otherwise. Do we really think that’s going to happen. Are you guys saying that we should still hand Turner the ball 18-20 times a game even though we’ve added 2 explosive play makers and claim to want to be a more explosive offense?
I just don’t TDimitroff and Smith would let that happen, and I think they’ll get with MM to make sure it doesn’t – that’s my prediction………10-15 touches per game for Turner (which in effect phases him out as a feature back) and more touches for Snelling and Quiz.
I really think this will evolve into something similar to what the Giants had in the Earth Wind and Fire days – and that was pretty positive……….I also think this will be Turners last season in a Falcon uniform.
I think Starks is faster than Snelling.
Snelling is equally as capable a receiver, but Starks looks to be a better runner, from what I’ve seen.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, Starks is faster, but he’s a system guy……….and as the Falcons move toward that more explosive system, there’s no reason why Snelling can’t be equally or more effective than Starks (not to mention Quiz) which is why I’m saying we MUST phase out Turner…….much like the the Pack is phasing out Ryan Grant
by AuxiliaryHusky on Aug 29, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd argue that Turner is a much better runner than Grant.
Grant has never been a really good runner, to my knowledge, but even before Matty was feared as a QB, Turner was still running like a boss. GB should have some of the best running games in the league because of Rodgers, but they’re still somewhat lackluster. I think Grant is just an average runner. Starks might even be better than him.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 29, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
That just doesn't seem like an apt comparison
You could argue Grant was a feature back (largely b/c he was the only back in GB), but he was never the focus of the OFF. I don’t think you’d say they ran the OFF through Grant. Moreover, Grant had a pretty bad injury last year which caused him to miss the entire season. In that scenario, it makes a lot of sense to share carries. Furthermore, no one is arguing against the Falcons splitting carries more evenly.
There will be the exceptional games where the DEF chooses to let Matt Ryan beat them leading to more passes, but I think you’re in for disappointment if you think Turner’s going to get less than 15-20 touches a game. Think about the PIT game. We threw the ball 42 times, yet Turner still got 7 carries.
I don't particulary see where the line blocks well for for anybody for the entire game
You have to establish the run as an offensive line in order to get the run game going. Besides that the Steelers were daring the falcons to go deep the entire half (Troy Palomalu roaming around with 8 in the box?) why wouldn’t you attack that…more than once? They sure did.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Awesome thread everyone
Some great points all over the place. And they were all really well presented. I now realize we must destroy Turner in order to save his immortal soul. Or something like that.
by aces666high on Aug 29, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Ya know that a great pic.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 29, 2011 7:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The funny part:
Sam Baker getting dragged by a D Linemans shirt.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Aug 29, 2011 11:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Turner will be with us the entire year I promise
Turner is not washed up, he is just getting into football shape and getting ready for the season. The entire team is doing the same thing. I think CMS will use Turner when he needs to, like using him for 30 carries against teams with a horrible rush defense, and he’ll only get 15 carries against teams we have to pass against, plain and simple. I honestly think the FO has learned whats the best way to use MT and this year they will FEATURE him in certain games and in other games he will be a nonfactor. They have built this team to attack teams in several different ways, pick your poison. I think they’ve realized MT’s limits and they wont abuse him this year again. He will be used when needed.But, after this season, who knows, he may not be here anymore.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
Do you want to know what will be awesome?
When MT averages 5YPC this year on 250 carries and this whole argument becomes a moot point…
I am looking forward to referencing this as the season goes on to see who was right and who was wrong :)
I honestly don’t think I have an opinion on this. I think the Falcons are transitioning to a more balanced offense and much less of a run first offense so having a bruising power back is going to be less and less necessary as time permits (I believe Dave had a writeup on this topic not too long ago about how the more Turner goes down the more Ryan will go up).
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