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Around SBN: What If This Is It For The Celtics? End Of An Era Looming

Why Does Matt Ryan Have To Win Playoff Games By Himself?

I appeared on The Pulse Network's radio show Monday to discuss the Atlanta Falcons, which was a good time despite fearing at any moment that my voice would disappear into the ether, never to be heard again. I hate being sick.

One question stuck with me well after I hung up the phone, and it inspired this post. The question, which took the form of a bit of a fastball from my gracious host, was basically this: Is Matt Ryan developing a rep for not being able to win the big game. 

My answer was that no, that's not a concern among fans but yes, Ryan will have to start winning playoff games soon or fans and analysts are going to start to question his pedigree. If you want to quibble with me on that, be my guest, but I'll just point you in the direction of guys like Dan Marino and pre-Super Bowl Peyton Manning, two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. Time and time again, they were questioned or ridiculed for not "winning the big game." Marino still deals with it. 

The more I thought about it, the more it rankled, even though it's a perfectly legitimate question asked by many. If you'll follow me after the jump, I'll explain why I think the importance attached to playoff wins for quarterbacks is crap.

Star-divide

Let's start with Marino, because he's the enduring example of this. I have heard people—sane, ostensibly normal people—say that Terry Bradshaw was a better quarterback than Dan Marino. That's based on the belief that Bradshaw had some mystical intangible ability that allowed his Steelers to win Super Bowls, and that he led them there. In fact, that's the basis of his Hall of Fame candidacy. This is, if you'll excuse my measured language, bullshit: 

Marino: 17 seasons, 61,361 yards, 420 TDs, 250 INTs, 59.4% competion, 86.4 rating
Bradshaw: 14 seasons, 27,989 yards, 212 TDs, 210 INTs, 51.9% completion, 70.9 rating

Now, admittedly Bradshaw played ball in a different era. Dan Marino was just coming into the league as Bradshaw was leaving it. But that said, there is simply no comparison between these two guys. Marino put a middling Dolphins team on his back. Bradshaw played game manager for one of the greatest teams of all-time. End of story. 

Now let's talk playoffs, since that's the basis of many a starry-eyed Bradshaw anecdote. 

Marino: 18 games, 4,510 yards, 32 TDs, 24 INTs, 56% competion, 77.1 rating
Bradshaw: 19 games, 3,833 yards, 30 TDs, 26 INTs, 57.2% completion, 83.3 rating

It's true that Bradshaw is the better quarterback in the playoffs, based on a similar sample size. Again, he had better pieces around him and wasn't asked to do what Marino had to do, but he was better. I'll readily acknowledge that.

What's my point here? While you can definitely say that Terry Bradshaw raised his game in the playoffs and Marino was not as good, you're talking very small sample sizes. You're talking about two drastically different teams. It strikes me as singularly unfair to elevate a quarterback who played on a better team and most assuredly was not a better quarterback in 95% of the games he played to "better" status.

In a very roundabout way, that brings us back to Ryan. By any objective sense of the word "success," Ryan has been exactly that:

Ryan: 3 seasons, 10,061 yards, 66 TDs, 34 INTs, 60.8% completion, 86.9 rating

Yet the Falcons have not won in the playoffs. Here's his stat lines in those losses:

Ryan: 2 games, 385 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 66.7% completion, 71.2 rating

Again, Ryan hasn't been any great shakes in the losses to Arizona and Green Bay. But it's two games. And, you know, it's not like the running game and defense were great shakes, either. A team of 63 guys and a coaching staff lost those games...not just Matt Ryan.

So while I acknowledge that Ryan is quietly developing a rep as a guy who can't win a big game, I think that's absurd. If the Falcons win a game this year, I'll be rejoicing on a lot of different levels, and this will be one of them.

What do you think, gentle readers? 

Comment 42 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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A QB can win and lose a game, particularly in the playoffs

Has Ryan made some mistakes in the playoffs? yes. But in each of our playoff loses, the running game did nothing, the defense gave up way too many points, and the falcons as a whole were out-played.

But Kurt Warner came out for the cardinals and carried his team to the superbowl. NFL history is filled with quarterbacks (they always give the credit to the qb, never the WR that gets open and catches the ball…) that have taken over a playoff game and won for their team.

We haven’t lost a playoff game because of Ryan, just haven’t won one.

by falconnuke on Aug 24, 2011 7:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Another quick reminder

The two playoff losses that Ryan and team suffered were to the teams that would eventually go to the Super Bowl.

At the very least, Ryan doesn’t have a playoff loss to say – a 7-9 fluke playoff team – on his record.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Haha

Go Marshawn Go!!

by FLA_Falcon on Aug 24, 2011 12:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah but that

QB has a ring.

A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice.

by FrozenFinger on Aug 24, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's the point of this post to me... I think you're inflating what happened, lumping together more than 1 season, plus giving the majority of the credit to Warner

If anything, the 2008 Cardinals was Kurt Warner AND Larry Fitzgerald carrying them on their backs to the Super Bowl. Warner was good, but not great until the NFC Championship Game… but take another look at Fitzgerlad’s numbers (in the link), especially that game against the Eagles.

That was also the year that Delhomme melted down (5 INT’s) in the game vs CAR, so the defense has to get some credit too (they also had 2 INT’s and a Fumble return for a TD against the Falcons).

It was the next year that Warner really went scorched earth against Green Bay:

29/33-379-5-0 (when Aaron Rodgers’ 28/42-423-4-1 wasn’t good enough)

Oh, and in case everybody forgot… the Cards won that game in OT on a Defensive TD (fumble return).

It’s a team win. It’s a team win. It’s a team win.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Aug 24, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree completely

And in no way was I trying to take away from the concept that it’s the team that wins, not the player.

I do believe it wasn’t so much Kurt Warner carrying the cardinals to the super bowl as mucha s it was that the WR’s (particularly Fitzgerald) that carried them.

To play the devil’s advocate, though, look at Aaron Rodgers last year. He got so hot during the playoffs that it was inevitable that the packers would make the super bowl. Quarterbacks do get too much credit, yes, but a RB having a great day doesn’t mean that his team is going to win. A cornerback having a great day, same thing. An OL having a bad day doesn’t mean his team is going to lose. But a QB having a great day nearly guarantees a win.

by falconnuke on Aug 24, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

well, he IS the only guy that has the ball every play...

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Aug 24, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

The only guy?

Granted, I believe Ryan is Hugely important to our success…however Trent Dilfer proved that Big games can be won without a great QB. Ryan does not play defense and our D is just as responsible for getting us a playoff W as our QB.

Falcon Fans UNITE!

by Blue Falcon on Aug 24, 2011 11:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Intersting and useless fact

The only player in NFL history to play every offensive down in an entire season – Danny White, Quarterback for the Cowboys in the 80s. In his first year as starter, he was also the team punter – which had him in for every offensive snap, including fourth downs.

There’s some completely useless and random information for you.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heh...good Point-less

Not as pointless as some of the crap I come up with though…hahaha

I always turn to the sports pages first, which records people's accomplishments. The front page has nothing but man's failures.
--Earl Warren, Chief Justice of the United States.

by Blood_Talon on Aug 24, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

fantastic post, Dave

I 100% agree with you here. The fact that Flacco has gotten so much praise for “his” playoff wins, and Ryan so much heat for “his” losses makes me a little ill.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Aug 24, 2011 8:21 AM EDT reply actions  

It’s annoying that people fall back to the “QB-wins” thinking just when it’s convenient (Flacco, Sanchez) and don’t mention it when it’s unsettling (Manning). Which just proves, it’s a bogus way of looking at the game.

I like the fact that Ryan is part of an organization that takes pride in one of the best winning percentages of the last three years. But everytime somebody points to “his” record being second behind Brady’s or “his” home field win percentage I just tune out.

by wiesengrund on Aug 24, 2011 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have heard a different take on Flacco as of late

There was a discussion on the NFL network about Flacco and his play in the regular season versus playoffs. Flacco has been terrible in the playoffs and for him to be considered a top tier QB he has to play better, much better in the playoffs. Everyone knows that BAL D won those games, it was not because Flacco is such a great QB. Ryan has that same stigma attached to him and only he can change that.

by mwalex on Aug 24, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

People will always probably point to the turnovers in the playoffgames to blame it on Ryan. And they’re partly right, although it was also Mularkeys call for the trademarked short out to Roddy White that everyone including Tramon Williams dog saw coming that tipped that game in Green Bays favor.

But on the other hand, it really is mind-boggling that people forget that Peyton Manning needed six years to win a playoff game. Because of the team and coaching staff he had. I’d say that Ryan is nowhere near Manning’s ability at this point in his career, but I guess the Falcons are much better suited right now than the Colts were in those years to make a deep playoff run.

And then Ryan will get the credit, of course. ;)

by wiesengrund on Aug 24, 2011 8:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Devils Advocate

If you look at the salaries in football, you’ll notice one emerging trend – almost all of the top names are Quarterbacks. Also note that you often hear a QB referred to as a Super-Bowl winning QB (including Favre, whose sole SB win was a rather lackluster affair).

Additionally, endorsement deals pour in for QBs. They also tend to transition better into football analyst positions – even the average to poor ones (Dilfer, anybody?).

Is the criticism fair? No, of course not. Manning couldn’t play defense the 5 years his team failed to win a “big one.” But it also comes with the territory. As a QB, you shoulder the hopes and dreams of the entire franchise on your shoulders. In a very real sense, you are a field GENERAL – the entire team answers to you. It’s why you get the fat pay check, the accolades, the endorsement deals and the adulation of millions.

Ultimately, it’s no different than a military general getting credit for winning a battle or a war. Even if all the guns aren’t in his hands, his position – and what he did to earn that position – garner him the praise and the criticism for the entire organization, fair or not.

All that said, people have short-term memory. John Elway was in his late 30s by the time he won his first Super Bowl – and that was after losing his first 3. As wiesengrund stated, Manning went 5 years without a playoff win, and even longer before winning the big one.

Ryan is just now starting year 4 – the year that most QBs in the league finally become the STARTER after sitting the bench for the first several years. The fact that this kid – he’s 26 folks – is this far along is a testament to how great a QB he is. NFL fans just need to give him – and the organization – time to put the right pieces in place so that he can be a true “Super Bowl winning” Quarterback.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 8:40 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

Well said

I remember when a QB never started until his fourth year in the league. Rookies NEVER started in the regular season. To be honest, Matt’s development might have been hampered by him starting as a rookie. That being said he has the skill set to win a SB, more so than QB’s like Dilfer, Brad Johnson and many others.

by mwalex on Aug 24, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think his development was well orchestrated

We keep hearing about “the process” – and it does get old – but I think what TD and MS have done is masterful. I think they realized that the best way to get a QB acclimated to the game is to have him under center. It’s the only way he can learn the speed of the NFL. It’s the best way for him to learn how to read defenses at the line. It’s the best way for him to learn what passes he can and can not get away with.

But, rather than setting him up for failure, by bringing in Turner – they built an offense that didn’t need him to be a Pro-Bowl QB out of the gate. The took a sizeable amount of the pressure off of him, allowing him to grow and learn. Turner carries the offensive workload while Ryan quickly gets acclimated to the game.

I think Ryan’s stats show that. Each year, his passer rating has increased while his INTs have dropped. He also looks more and more comfortable each year.

If I’m reading the process right – and what we’ve heard from Mularkey this offseason is accurate – I think this is the year they turn the whole offense over to Ryan.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Throwing out stats might not be so good

because Ryans AYPA (adjusted yards per attempt) has been dropping over the past three eyars. That is a pretty big issue. Now, that can be due to personel, MM’s game plan or Ryan’s ability to make good reads/decisions. Yes, his TD to INT ration was good last year and an improvement over 2009 but that is not the sole gauge on QB performance.

I am looking forward to see Matt run the offense this year but I am a little concerned after the Miami game. Hopefully that was due to the poor OL play.

by mwalex on Aug 24, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't read too much into the AYPA

Obviously, it would be nice if those numbers were higher, but I think that is due to multiple factors: teams forcing Roddy to run short, lack of downfield options and Ryan making sound passing decisions – ie, he took what the defense gave him.

I’d argue that the TD to INT ratio is very important, as the INT is sometimes a game-killer. I know you hate hearing it, but the 13-3 record is partly due to the fact that Ryan became a much better decision maker in his third year. Granted, the passes weren’t often flashy, but he consistently drove the team down field. It showed in the fact that the Falcons were 6th in scoring and one of the top 5 teams in Red Zone efficiency.

I do think this year will be yet another huge step for Ryan – but not just because of Julio. I think HD being back to full speed is going to be a huge shot in the arm. If used right – like Norwood was used in the 2008 season – I also believe Quizz is going to be a great option for Ryan to dump off to instead of having to throw out of bounds.

As for Miami, I think Ryan handled the pressure well, and I’m willing to overlook the performance of the OL for now since McClure was not running the show.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, INT's are killer (on a game-by-game basis)

But YPA’s are generally more stable year-to-year than INT%.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Aug 24, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Part of the reason I like the new ESPN Total QBR

Any football fan can take individual stats and make cases for why their QB is superior. Heck, I got into an argument with a Bears fan who insisted that Cutler was a top 5 QB – based on his AYPA and his passing yards on the season.

Those individual stats can’t track the effectiveness of a QB. An INT in the redzone is far costlier than an INT thrown on a hail mary at the end of the first half.

I take some comfort in knowing that in 2010 at least, Ryan was a top 5 QB based on the combined metrics in the Total QBR. I think anyone who watched him last year – including the folks at Pro Football Focus – would agree with that assessment.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Jay Cutler's AYPA is higher than Ryan

Would you still argue that Cutler is a better QB because of this number?

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did I in any part of my comment

compare QB’s based on a singel stat? No I did not. If you look at one stat and draw conclusions more power to you but I don’t. I pointed out a stat that I feel is important and that you either don’t value or understand. But if you want to play that game I do believe that Rivers, Rodgers and Brady are better QB’s than Ryan, currently at least, and their AYPA’s were MUCH higher than Ryans.

by mwalex on Aug 24, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do not disagree

On Brady and Rodgers, but you’ve been emphasizing the AYPA. I’ve been saying that the QB position is more than one statistic.

I’m not undervaluing AYPA anymore than I’m undervaluing passer rating, TD-to-INT ratio, YPA or any of the 1000 metrics measure for a QB. All I’m saying is Ryan’s AYPA may have been down the past two years, but all his other metrics are UP.

by The DW on Aug 24, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

AYPA depends on Scheme.

Some of the advanced stats from PFF which specifically address why AYPA is not a good measure esp for Matt Ryan.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/19/matt-ryan-better-than-you-think/

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Aug 24, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't see where the articel said anything AYPA

Did I miss it. Also AYPA is not average yards per attempt, it’s adjusted yards per attempt.

by mwalex on Aug 24, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

There was another link.

I am trying to find it. But bottom line is stats needs to be looked at with in a scheme. I was actually surprised how efficient and good Matt Ryan was last year after reading the stats.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Aug 24, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can agree

on that. But not all of the QB’s with higher AYPA’s than Ryan are in better schemed offenses. If they are someone needs to take a hard look at MM.

by mwalex on Aug 24, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just another example of how all the blame falls on the QB

But the true story in both those playoff games is how the defense wasn’t up for the task. In ARI all they needed was a stop and couldn’t deliver, who knows what would have happened if Ryan got one more chance at a two minute drill, maybe the story about Ryan in the playoffs is different today. In GB if our defense actually hits Rodgers when they got pressure (they’d probably end up with 11 sacks in that game) instead of bouncing off of him, and got stops maybe Ryan pulls out another win in a close game against GB as before. He’s never had the weapons he has now, and he’s still very young so if the defense can actually do their jobs in the Playoffs I think Ryan will win and ice the critics.

by mr92687!!! on Aug 24, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Very Few QB won Play off games by themselves in first 3 seasons.

Joe Flacco and Mark Sacnhez won Play off games because of defense. Drew Brees,Peyton Manning won their first play off game in 6th Season and Aaron Rodgers(6th Year QB) didn’t win a Play off game till last year. I guess the expectations for Matt Ryan are so high that sometimes we forget he was just a 3rd Yr QB.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Aug 24, 2011 10:31 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

While Ryan may be the face of the franchise

he’s actually only the captain of the offense. He doesn’t dictate defensive choices. The Steelers, with Terry Bradshaw, were so effective in large part due to the “steel curtain” offense they had during their super bowl runs. Bradshaw had the luxury of getting the ball back more often, more quickly, and with better field position.

It’s a team game. Defense has as much to do with winning as the offense does. Even with the best captain.

by randomaxe on Aug 24, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Quarterbacks get too much credit for wins.

It’s obvious you need a good qb to be a successful team, but it doesn’t mean that a quarterback wins every game for his team. Ryan has been great for this franchise, but it’s not like every game they have won has been because of him. Let’s remember that the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback, but no one in their right mind would give Dilfer the credit for that win. The Ravens won because of a stifling defense and an awesome running game.

I think that Ryan can help this franchise become a perennial playoff contender, but we shouldn’t be so quick to shoulder him with all the responsibility for winning and losing.

by falconfanatic79 on Aug 24, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't think so

Everyone disappeared in that game.

O-Line, Defense…everybody was gone except Matt and Roddy. Roddy was triple covered. Jenkins couldn’t get open.

I think it’s going to be different this year.

by ndnpride8806 on Aug 24, 2011 9:51 PM EDT reply actions  

It's the way it is

it might not be fair but look at Manning. Even at Tennessee he was tagged as a guy who couldn’t win the big one. When the Falcons win big games then Ryan will get the lions share of the credit. He’s a big boy and he can handle the critics.

A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice.

by FrozenFinger on Aug 24, 2011 10:52 PM EDT reply actions  

I still somewhat have faith in Matty Ice

He does need to decrease his mistakes in the post season but I think he will get over that hump this year.
P.S. How ironic that both teams that beat Ryan in the playoffs went on to the superbowl.

by pierre02 on Aug 25, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions  

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