Conspiracy Theorist 4: Down Goes Turner, Up Goes Matty?
In this series of posts, I come up with crazy ideas that, while completely possible in the darkest realms of theory, they're more likely to be evaluated by a psych ward for hallucinations and multiple personalities.
I noticed something in one of my Saturday Six Pack articles that caught my eye. It was from the NY Times season preview for us. There's a particular section in the beginning that reads:
But look a little closer and you’ll see what Dimitroff sees: an offense that ranked 31st in pass plays over 20 yards last season and was guided by the smashmouth principle of high-volume running out of jumbo personnel packages. Twenty years ago, this formula was golden. But today, it’s anachronistic. The offensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey, has made it work the past two years, but the bell cow he rides, running back Michael Turner, is 29 and destined to soon hit the same wall that Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander and virtually every other running back has eventually hit. When Turner does, expect the Falcons to push the reset button and write a more modern, pass-oriented playbook.
As soon as I read that, I immediately thought of a conspiracy theory, and it's one that, however terrible it might sound, could actually be legitimate.
Today, I ask you this: Could the Falcons offense be purposefully conservative until Turner has been run into the ground? Jump with me and let's talk about it!
While the front office will tell you they knew what they were getting in Matt Ryan, it suffices to say that they probably didn't know they were getting a QB that was, well, this good. The signing of Turner brought in a low mileage RB who had shown flashes of greatness in San Diego, and had done enough running to guarantee what had been shown in his career.
In order to help a young QB, a strong running game is needed. If the Falcons were taking a gamble on a rookie QB, and they knew what they were getting in a workhorse RB, is it possible that the RB could've been used solely to ease the QB's transition into the NFL?
It sounds silly at first thought, but consider this: Turner has been given a massive amount of touches since 2008. He's capable of handling the load, yes, but no RB can keep up 350+ carries a year for long. That's just the nature of the beast. A physical RB is probably more likely to break down early simply because they take so many more vicious hits than a sneaky, speed RB.
We've criticized Offensive Coordinator Mike Mularkey's lack of creativity, but we've continued to win in spite of some of it being boring and/or unoriginal at times. Most all of us have been calling for Matty to have the leash removed, and many of us thought that should've happened last year (it didn't, really.) which makes me wonder whether they're going to run Turner into the ground before Matty gets his turn? By the time Turner runs out of gas (end of this year, perhaps?) there will be no doubt whether or not Matty is capable of handling a full-time passer's job without a good RB.
The whole world has been yelling for Matty to be let loose, and it hasn't happened yet. What gives? Were they preparing Matty for the future? Were they trying to run Turner as hard as humanly possible until he couldn't go anymore? An offense minus Turner would be a very different offense, and it would require a lot of adjustments. A more pass-oriented attack would have to come about, and as it stands right now, our offense isn't a passing attack.
Could Turner have been used solely to prepare Matty for life after Turner? Discuss!
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I don't agree.
First of all, I’m one of those guys that actually likes what MM does and the way we win games. I also like the fact that we are a classic (and boring) run first offense that makes liebackers look like cornerbacks. I think they keep running the ball in jumbo packages because we’ve won 33 games that way… that’s not bad at all. Off course teams catch on and enemies like the Saints spent their whole offseason (last 2 weeks) aquiring guys to stop Turner.
In all, I do think we are becoming a Metty Ice offense little by little and THIS is the year it happens. No way Turner will produce at the same level he did last year and NO WAY we waste our multi-pick trade on a blocking WR
by ForeignFalcon on Aug 10, 2011 8:32 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I honestly think the transition to a more pass oriented offense will be THIS year
Ryan has had 3 years to get ready and to get good at making all the throws he need to as a Qb in the NFL, EXCEPT the long ball. This year he will master that ability as well, while we still use Turner, just not as much. We’ll see more catches from backs out of the backfield and more screens. All of these different ways of attacking a defense have just gotten Ryan ready to almost autonomously take over the playcalling during games, and you know EVERY Qb would rather pass than run! lol This has been a slow transistion but one that will pay HUGE dividends for years to come, kinda like Peyton.
And yes, Turner was used to acclimate Ryan to the NFL easier and make his job easier as well. It’s easy to calm a QB down during a game when you can just call 2 up the middle runs by Turner in a row!! lol
But, mark my words, this year this offense will start the transition towards a more pass oriented offense and will get much more explosive!! I could see us having at least 5 scoring drives during the season that take 3 plays or less!! That kind of offensive firepower would be awesome to behold, and I think we have the weapons now to do it!!
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
We will still try to establish our running game thats for sure
especially when you have a RB like Turner and a backup like Snelling. But now, when we can’t get the runing game going,Ryan can take over and pass us to a win! Last year we could not do that. If we fell behond by more than 2 scores we were screwed usually. This year I dont think any point differential will be to much to come back from since we should be able to score much more quicker with the added speed on offense.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 10, 2011 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Still need to run
Even though Julio is a beast, it takes time for a QB and receiver to learn each other. And I have no doubt that JJ will be amazing, the little things – like hot routes or audibles or even working out of the no huddle – are very difficult to learn in a short span. Because of this, we will still need a strong running game.
However, as the season progresses, I believe JJ will learn to adapt and the passing game will open up more than any of us ever envisioned.
I don't think the issue is a strong running game
It’s an effective running game and that is what ATL did not have last year. ATL had a lot of rushing yards for the season but lacked getting yards in critical situations. The DVOA for the running game has dropped each year for the past three years. To be successful that needs to change. Opening up the passing game can do that.
An interesting point, as many yards as MT had last year Matt’s adjusted yards per pass went down. That might hint that the running game was not setting up the pass.
totally agree
It was as if the running game was supposed to set up the passing game, but it fell far short of accomplishing that goal. Especially when we played teams that were tough against the run our offense seemed to struggle, like we didn’t have an answer or couldn’t make the proper adjustments during the game to counter what the opposing defense was doing to us.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 10, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions
great point
which can be the result of either in ineffective running by MT, or (which is more likely) stupid predictable playcalling… I’m hoping (yet anothet season) that Mulrakey changes. playcalling like in that Ravens game could take us a long way into the playoffs…
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
one thing I like
about our new signings is that Mularkey can’t complain about lack of takent on offense :)
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
I think that
a lot of it has to do with getting into a rhythm. When the offense is clicking into gear, churning and getting first-down after first down (using all possible downs) it functions well. Yet, I think that sometimes if we don’t hit this rhythm and teams figure us out, we are easier to beat. Take last year’s Saints game in Atlanta. Our offense did virtually nothing for most of the game and it was due to the fact we tried to get into that “rhythm,” but could not.
Hopefully we can be more explosive, but I hope that’s not going to sacrifice the malignant drives that we used to do so well at.
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All about the "Process"
I know the word is abused, over-used and frankly, painful to hear at this point – but it is the truth here. I believe the new front-office believed that they had the QB of the future in Ryan. I believe they always intended to start him in his rookie year and I believe that a workhorse RB was key in helping the QB development.
I think it was hugely important to get Ryan in the game early, so that he could learn the speed of the NFL game. So that he could begin seeing complex defenses and could start learning the offensive scheme. I also believe that he blew away everyone’s expectations – including TD and MS – in his rookie year.
The process – as I see it – has been to give the QB more and more each year, so that by the time he reaches years 3 and 4, he’s a capable starting QB that can run a balanced, and sometimes pass heavy offense. Ryan has been ahead of the curve, by all measures. We saw in the Baltimore game that he CAN run a pass heavy offense and do it with surgeon like precision. I think the only reason he hasn’t been turned loose more is that they didn’t have all the weapons they wanted. Harry was still recovering. Jenkins went down early with injury. Meier went down with injury. And we didn’t have a Julio.
This is the year that we turn it completely over. The multi-trade for Julio indicates that, and even hints from last year indicate that the front-office now consider this to be a Matt Ryan offense, and not just a run-first offense.
Agreed Sir
I think Matt Ryan’s signature to this offense is going to be the no huddle. It’s going to be a beautiful thing this year. And yes the move to get Julio really says they believe in Matt’s ability to read coverages and get the ball to the open man. Jenkins while good wasn’t a big enough threat to make teams pay consistantly. The one thing defenses fear most is speed " why is everyone so afraid of Philly? They have speed at every offensive skilled position" Julio and HD will force defenses to play honest. Now we just have to hope they can execute it for 19 games.
It's not uncommon
for teams to use the run game to ease young QB’s into the flow of the game and their offensive schemes. I don’t think the intention is to run MT into the ground and then fall back on Matt. It might be that the learning curve ATL set up for Matt would be for three years and then things would open up. I think Matt’s progression last year, especially in the no huddle, was one reason why the FO traded up to get JJ. They saw he was ready to run the offense.
As far as liking how MM wins games, meh. It hasn’t worked if ATL EVER got behind by more than 10 or 14 points. As the article said, it’s anachronistic and cannot sustain a winning team. The NFL is currently the league of the QB and Matt is more than good enough to compete and win in this league. What is the limiting factor for Matt? It won’t be injuries to supporting players, or tough competition or a drop in talent rather it will be the lack of offensive plays to come back and win games. This is the year that MM can show his true ability as an OC.
MM audition year
I think Mularkey will take more chances this year, in particular, because he’s auditioning for the head coaching vacancies of 2012. He needs to prove to GMs across the league that he can guide an offense in both running and passing. He’s proven that he can field a strong running offense – now he needs to prove he can field a strong passing offense.
Good points and we'll see.
but depending on how you define “strong running game” it might not be the same as “effective running game”.
Not a point
that you can argue well.
The effectiveness of ATL’s run game has dropped each year from 2008 through 2010. That reduction in effectiveness is most evident in the playoffs and against teams with good run defenses.
Stating 33 wins in three years as a defense doesn’t look at the whole picture and overstates many points.
Exactly.
I’ll add that opening up the offense in the FIRST half (if not quarter) would help more, as the Turnelling Strategy works better with a 2 score cushion. I’d rather have Matt sling the ball around because we CAN, as opposed to because we HAVE TO.
Mularky will find a way to help Ryan’s production with Turner’s legs and Turner’s production with Ryan’s arm. The offense won’t flip, it won’t go from “run-first” to “pass-first” with the simple addition of Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers. The offense will become more balanced and I think that will add years to Turner’s career. Expect balance, don’t expect half of Mularky’s run plays to be deleted out of the playbook because Ryan is a big boy now. Turner’s a key peice to the puzzle and he’s always going to be a big part of the game plan, that’s just how the Falcons roll.
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by waltbabyluv on Aug 10, 2011 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I disagree
I think the offense will “flip”. NO, I dont mean we will pass 50 times and run 15 times. What I mean is that Ryan will be expected to carry more of the offensive load and be expected to make more plays with his arm this year, more than any other year. Our team will NOT be a run first, smashmouth team like it has the past 3 years. It will be a balanced offense that can attack you running the ball OR passing the ball, whichever one the defense tries to take away from us we will just attack them with the other weapons. We will still have a very good running game, probably ranked in the top half of the league, but now we will also have a very good pasing game that should be in the top 10. So, a top 10 running game and a top 10 passing game – THAT IS WHAT OUR FO HAS BEEN STRIVING FOR SINCE WE GOT RYAN.
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 10, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
This theory doesn't sound silly at all...
It makes perfect sense actually. And now that I think about it, I belies it. They will let Matt loose either this years or next year, and I’m willing to bet you a big physical RB will be one of the top priorities in next years draft.
by DirtyBirdTakeover on Aug 10, 2011 9:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think they'll look for a physical running back next year too.
I’m thinking that will probably be our 3rd round pick (TE 2nd round). Turner will be another year older and Snelling is only on a one year contract which means they need to get someone in there next year. Also, we shouldn’t have many holes to fill. The only positions that I see would be TE, RB, and CB and one of those may be a FA pickup.
Not so sure about another big physical back.
I see them changing gears and going with a more all around back. Look for more draws, screens, and RB swing passes. A Ray Rice/Marshall Faulk clone could do alot more damage than another MT.
We have lots of free agents next year
DeCoud, Lofton, Biermann, Abraham and Douglas. We’re not going to be able to sign all of those guys, so we will need replacements.
Selling this idea...
to a large degree. I’m buying the fact that Turner and a strong running game has allowed Ryan to ease into the role of starting QB. There’s no doubt that a strong running game is a QB’s best friend. Also worth mentioning is the relief provided to a young and still emerging defense by a game controlling running game. By keeping them off the field for long stretches of the clock with our power running game, we minimized their exposure and kept them fresher.
But I’m totally selling the idea that the “strategy” has been to run Turner into the ground for the sake of the progression of Ryan and the entire offense to a pass-first mentality. It simply doesn’t make sense to hold back the reins when you get what are typically fleeting chances for a Super Bowl appearance.
We ran Turner hard for the last 3 years because that’s what Mularkey knows how to do. Look at his track record at Pittsburgh and Buffalo. When Ryan has run the no huddle offense the last two seasons, the offense has appeared far more productive. I don’t have statistics to back it up, purely my observation.
Don't undersell the benefit of an effective running game.
It keeps the defense off the field and lets them rest. It controls the clock. It might lull the opposing secondary to not be as quick or sharp when the lightning strike occurs, potentially making the strike more effective. And it gives you options against teams with shutdown corners (like Philly) that might be more easily exploited up the middle.
Balance. That’s what keeps you from falling off the wire.
by randomaxe on Aug 10, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I think it's necessary, but the larger question is whether Turner can still be effective
Running backs have a short life to begin with, and Turner’s dealt with injuries ever since 2009. His production has slowly but steadily eroded since his breakout 2008 year.
I think the Falcons need to ease his workload to keep him effective. Having Ryan pass like crazy is a good way to do that.
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by Dave Choate on Aug 10, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
No offset
I think part of the reason Turner has been used to death has been the lack of an offset at the position. We all know Norwood’s consistent injuries the past few seasons hampered the run offense, and even though Snelling is a good backup, he didn’t off the change of pace that Norwood would have.
On top of it, the fact that the Falcons hardly ever threw down field allowed opposing defenses to play 5 – and sometimes 6 – in the box. I don’t care how good a RB is – if he’s going up against a stacked front like that, he’ll never get good yardage.
I don't agree about not having an offset to MT
being the reason for his use rate. Snelling is a very capable rusher and could have been used much more in the running game over the past three years. That is MM’s scheme, always has been.
Dave, to your point about Turner being effective I still disagree on it simply being on issue of age or over use. I think there are some substantial schematic issues involving the run game, either in blocking or play design.
Snelling isn't quite an offset though
I like Snelling, but he’s built like MT. He has better hands, but he is not quite as capable as running over guys and isn’t quite as fast. I do agree that he wasn’t used enough and that some of MTs snaps should go to Snell, however. The advantage to having a shifty back like Jaquizz is the ability to do more runs that bust around the line and force linebackers to move horizontally – something that less talented LBs struggle with.
I also feel that the running game lost effectiveness, but I feel that is less about Turner and more about predictable play calling. There are only so many ways to do “smash-mouth” offense, and not having a deep-ball to speak of lets defenses stack defenders in the box.
Depends on how you define offset
Snelling has more cutting ability and does a better job at hitting holes made by the OL. I’m not so sure that MT is faster than Snelling though. I’d be interested to see if anyone has numbers to prove one way or the other.
I agree with your second paragraph and that’s why I brought up the schematic issues earlier.
Turner is/was known for his ridiculous speed in spite of his size.
Snelling can motor, but not like Turner. Turner in his prime was absurdly fast for his size. We’re talking 4.4 speed. I want to say his pro day, he ran a 4.3 something. At 230 pounds!
I think Snelling hits the hole a little better, but Turner is more dangerous in the open field.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Aug 10, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you Dave
And I’m not arguing at all that it’s probably time (if not past time) for the pass to set up the run rather than the converse. But each opponent is different. I’m not sure that game plan would work as well against Philly, for instance, or any other team with a knock-dead secondary, especially if they have some weak points on the defensive line. A great OC will develop a game plan that manipulates the defense, not one that allows the defense to dictate the style of play. I think Turner can still be effective, but I agree it’s time to stop predictably running him up the middle on every first down (an exaggeration, I know, but making a point…)
Oh, I don't think we're disagreeing
I think you raise a valid point. We still need Turner. I’m just worried about his long-term viability.
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by Dave Choate on Aug 10, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
And the lack of a suitable replacement
I agree that Turner’s value is still extremely high, but also worry that we’ve not made any apparent move to identify a replacement as of yet. Unless Rodgers turns out to be an MJD replica, I don’t see him being able to carry the load or consistently running between the tackles for positive gains (particularly in goal line situations). While I love the contributions that Snelling has made and the flexibility of using him as a FB or RB, he’s not shown he can be a full-time replacement for Turner either.
You don't need a full time replacement for MT
He just needs to have his carries reduced and Snelling can do that. When MT went down in 2009 Snelling played very well. Not great but very well.
Didn't they
prove this last year against the Ravens? The ravens defense stopped the running game cold and credit MM or Ryan whoever but nonetheless they went to the passing game and handled Ray Lewis and company. That was to me maybe Ryans best game of the year and now he has even more weapons. So now they will dare teams to commit more players to stopping the run.
I wouldn't call it a conspiracy theory...
Cause it definitely sounds plausible. Maybe not intentional by the FO, but part of the “process” perhaps.
As much as I prefer the run-oriented offense, the shelf-life of RBs nowadays can limit the efficiency of running that system (pun partially intended). A balanced offense that is willing to run and throw when it needs to sounds completely reasonable. (Pretty much what everyone else has been saying in this thread…)
Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.
Am I missing something?
Cause if the question is “Could the Falcons offense be purposefully conservative as long as possible/as long as we have the personnel?” then the answer is of course.
We signed a big back to carry the load while Matty learned. That’s not debatable.
We’ve continued riding him (being conservative) because our defense predicated our being a ball control offense.
Even now, as we try to become more explosive, we will continue running Turner as much as possible, because as exciting as 5-wide sets are, running the ball improves our chances of winning.
If the question is “Could the Falcons offense be purposefully running Turner into the ground?” then I’d say of course not; nothing comes before winning in the NFL.
Smokey says: Only you can BVG forest fires.
2008
Matt Ryan probably did surprise the FO a little bit. But what about Turner? I doubt TD and MS thought they were getting 1700 yards from him! After his amazing season you almost HAVE to try it again… but then he got hurt. Then last year we went 13-3 with a sub par receiving corps(Mr. White not included). I guess what I’m trying to say is that if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. The first consecutive winning seasons in franchise history doesn’t sound broke to me. Nor does making the Playoffs two out of three years. But we did not have the ability to score more points in a hurry if necessary. We needed “explosive” play makers and I think we got them. We will still ride Turner as long as he can take it. But now when he’s getting stuffed we can go over the top. And my favorite thing about it is now we should get to see the DEEP BALL! Can’t wait for the new season. Go Falcons!!
by birdwatch on Aug 10, 2011 11:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
The point that is being missed
is the refrequency that MT is getting stuffed. For a team that prides itself on power rushing and ball control the stuff rate is WAY too high. That is indicative of a problem that is being overlooked and the reason why the rushing game has been loosing effectiveness every year.
Yep...
That goes to my point to let the pass set up the run when appropriate, instead of consistently running up the middle to set up the pass. I think part of the run-stuffing problem is predictability, and lack of options, like an effective screen. Defenses have been able to shut down the box and limit our rushing game. Hopefully, some of our recent acquisitions will allow MM to address that.
couldn't agree with you more randomaxe
The predictability of our running game has become down right grammer school level stuff! No variety at all hardly with the playcalling. Using the wrong RB’s to accomplish what your trying to do, for example: Trying to rush Turner around the edges? He may have made it once or twice, but that is not his forte, he is a power back. That shoulda been JN’s job. But he was always hurt, now it will fall to Quizz, and i honestly think this guy is gonna produce when given the opportunity.
Imagine guys and Gals that Ryan will have these options:, Do I throw to RW?, Do I throw to JJ? , Do I throw to HD?. Or even throw to Meier? If somehow they are all miracously covered then matty just dumps it off to Quizz for a quick 7-12 yard gain. Thuis is just the passing options for Ryan, not to mention the running game still being very solid against inferior opponents, and good enough to be respectful aginst the better run defensive teams. Basically it boils down to this right here
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
by ATLsince1972 on Aug 11, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
oops didnt mean to post yet
Basically it’s this Ryan will have to step up and be an even better Qb than before and utilyze his weapons as effecient as possible, while Turner, Snell, and Quizz return this running game to what it was in 08. Then and only then will we be discussed as one of the top elite teams because we will have very very good balance on offense. NOW, if the defense steps up and improves this year and gets us into the top 10 in every category and even top 3 in the yards and points given up, along with being in the top 5 for sacks too! lol
" Ryan back to pass, He throws it long, he's going deep to Julio on his first snap! HE CAUGHT IT, HE CAUGHT IT! JJ's dragging the safety into the endzone with him! TOUCHDOWN FALCONS! TOUCHDOWN JULIO JONES!! HIS FIRST ONE IN THE NFL, AND I GOT A FEELING THE FIRST OF MANY MANY MORE TO COME FOLKS!! I GOTTA SAY IT FOLKS - JJ......... IS.......... DY - NO - MITE!!
Mularkey comes from the Parcell school
Where QB’s are not expected to win games just not lose games. Check the teams he’s coached on Bills, Steelers, Dolphins, and Buccs all running teams that use the run to set up the pass. I see the Falcons using a high draft pick next year on a RB.
I would love to blow up Texas Stadium... With team still in it

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