Guess The First Move The Falcons Make After The Lockout

by Dave Choate on Jul 18, 2011 8:00 AM EDT in Editorial

Step right up and guess!

It's a pretty simple, non-taxing sort of discussion for a Monday morning, even though we're all likely to be way off the mark. I'm simply asking you to guess what the very first thing Thomas Dimitroff will do after he has the freedom to do anything but ride his bike 300 miles through the Swiss Alps while battling capitalists.

My guess? Releasing a handful of players, including guys whose salaries are higher than their production. I think you'll see the end of Chauncey Davis, Jerious Norwood, Michael Koenen and Brian Williams in Atlanta before the good Comrade makes any other moves. It's a bit of an ambitious guess, I'll admit, but the front office has had a lot of time to think about who is getting to stay and who has to go.

So don't be shy. Join me in throwing darts and seeing where they land, if you would.

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For the most part, I agree

Dave, I disagree with your statement – “…including guys whose salaries are higher than their production” – as it relates to Michael Koenen and his current salary. I understand the opinion that what Koenen will ask for in free agency is higher than some people feel he is worth, and I think the organization expects that based on the draft.

I also agree that the end of their careers as members of the Atlanta Falcons is probably very close for Chauncey Davis, Jerious Norwood and Brian Williams. With Jason Snelling already on board and, again, the draft, I just don’t see them keeping Norwood.

by Reid Adair on Jul 18, 2011 8:11 AM EDT reply actions

Jerious Norwood...

…will be gone first. That’s my prediction.

by DirtyBirdTakeover on Jul 18, 2011 8:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

And I sure hope we keep Koenen

He is key in special teams production…

by DirtyBirdTakeover on Jul 18, 2011 8:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

"I'm about rings now"
~Arthur Blank

by CollegePark4Life on Jul 18, 2011 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm going against the consensus

and will probably be wrong, but I won’t be surprised if ATL keeps JNorwood. Jason Snelling is not “on board” unless he gets resigned. With ATL’s salary issues I don’t see them paying him a large sum to be the #2RB when there are three FA OL. Who would we rather see ATL keep, Snelling or Clabo?

I’m also not sure on why ATL would cut BWilliams, especially with Coleman out of the picture.

The love for Koenen is misplaced and another case of perception and reality being unrelated:

Koenen ranked 30th in average yards per punt
26th in net yards per punt
13th in average yards per return which hang time is probably part of.
He was 2nd in the number of fair kicks but the percentage of fair kicks is much lower

Koenen was paid $2.73MM for 2010, way too much.

by mwalex on Jul 18, 2011 8:36 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs

I'd say Weems had a big part in keeping the return yards down

He was just a beast on coverage last year.

by GA-James on Jul 18, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I like your reasoning...

Without researching stats, I think Koenen just had an off year. I’m pretty sure he was one of the best punters in the league for a while there, but last year was a bit of a slump for him. But yes, either way, that is a lot of money for a punter!

"It's called Thanksgiving for a reason. If I can give and people thank me for it, that's kind of the thing that makes me feel great inside." - Dunta

by TomQ on Jul 18, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

well rec'd!

i agree with everthing u said there expecially about norwood..he already knows the offense & he has the talent just injury prone but he shld come cheap

Been a falcons fan since the big starter jackets was in style

by turnj35 on Jul 18, 2011 9:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Rec'd

Koenen’s play has really slid since we were the best punt coverage team in history in 08

by Mosugo on Jul 18, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

First move will be a quiet re-sign of an Offensive Lineman.

I have no idea which one, but it will happen. Willing to bet secret emails and faxes were exchanged already.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Jul 18, 2011 8:45 AM EDT reply actions

Norwood would be first to go, with Jacquizz in

With Bosher in I can’t see Koenen keeping his spot. I’d be really disappointed if Chauncey Davis leaves, it just feels to me like he adds some depth and that makes me feel a lot more comfortable. I can see Williams going but I wouldn’t really mind hugely if he stays, he could be a valuable nickel if Owens continues his unpredictable rollercoaster onfield performances.

And in terms of moves he should make first, lock down our O-line. They’re all beasts together, they are greater than the sum of their parts and I don’t want to see our great O-line formula go because we can’t resign Clabo.

by Turner_The_Burner on Jul 18, 2011 9:12 AM EDT reply actions

Norwood stays

Snelling is going to want more carries and more money. I just can’t see the team paying a backup a huge salary. Norwood knows the offense and is comfortable in his role as a backup, so I wont be surprised if he’s still around. Norwood will be much cheaper than Snelling. Jacquizz will be a stud, but he’s probably not going to start the year off as RB2 considering the impact of the lockout on his learning curve. My guess is that Chauncey Davis will be out. Not so sure about Koenen and Williams.

by leonw92 on Jul 18, 2011 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

most likely they'll look to free up cap first

my list of potential cuts:

michael jenkins
justin peelle
jamaal anderson
chauncey davis
trey lewis
brian williams

they could keep jenkins but if they believe douglas/meier can step up and stay healthy, cutting or trading jenkins would be a smart decision that will pay off almost immediately if douglas/meier can deliver.

weems, clabo, and dahl are guys i think atlanta won’t resign or have the luxury to resign some of them even if they wanted to.

i still don’t know why people think norwood is a goner and why people are so sure snelling is a sure-keep. obviously the falcons will be patient with snelling because he won’t be a top priority, giving other teams a great chance to snag him, which i think will happen. atlanta will keep norwood because they know if they let him go and then are unable to keep snelling because another team signed him then they’ll have a void and hole to fill at runningback that could cause depth problems.

by mr92687!!! on Jul 18, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions

Brian Williams is a FA. They won't need to cut him to free up space.

by Fear Me on Jul 18, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you, Dave.

a handful of cuts is most likely the first move.

For those thinking that Jamaal Anderson gets cut, Pat Yasinkas has an interesting note:

In terms of true value compared to salary, defensive linemen Jamaal Anderson and Chauncey Davis are guys who don’t measure up to their salary-cap space. Anderson is scheduled to count $5.8 million against the cap, but the Falcons would take a $3.1 million hit if they release him. Davis is scheduled to count $3.75 in cap space and the Falcons could free up $2.25 million by letting him go.

That’s two pretty big hits, especially with Anderson, for releasing two below-average players. So, I think we can expect one to be dropped (Davis is the most likely candidate imo), and one retained.

by KMarch on Jul 18, 2011 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

if they restructure their contracts...

would we take those hits as well? Or just what their new contract states?

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Jul 18, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think so. Many teams restucture contracts to increase their cap space.

by Fear Me on Jul 18, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I think this is right

the hit only comes from dropping the player from the roster. Restructuring contracts is a new agreement, and thus the penalty doesn’t apply.

by KMarch on Jul 18, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Something I found on falcfans.com that may help explain restructured contracts.

It’s old but still relevant:

“In our example, let’s say the Falcons need to save some extra space so they need to restructure some contracts. Say it is the offseason prior to Year 3 of Ed’s contract, so it would not be a good idea to cut him (would add an extra $1 million to the Falcons cap). So they decide to restructure Ed’s contract. A common form of restructuring is lowering the player’s base salary. In this case, the Falcons can lower Ed’s base salary of $1.5 million to $500,000. Now the Falcons have cleared $1 million off Ed’s contract. But now what happens to that $1 million? Usually teams treat it as a signing bonus. In that way, it becomes prorated over the remaining years of his contract just like a normal signing bonus. That means that there will be a $333,333 cap hit ($1 million / 3 years) in Years 3, 4, and 5. Although this frees up $666,667 in cap space in Year 3, it adds an additional $333,333 to the Falcons cap in Years 4 and 5.

So although restructuring is a quick way to gain cap space without losing a player, but it also can hurt a team down the road. When you begin to restructure contracts with large bonuses, it can be very detrimental to the salary cap in future years."

by Fear Me on Jul 18, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Norwood, Koenen, and Williams are UFAs, so there's no need to release them.

The first move will be to gauge Snelling’s demands then re-sign Blalock and Matt Bryant.

Depending on the terms of the new CBA, the Falcons may wait to release C. Davis so his “dead money” signing bonus can be prorated against 2011 and 2012 caps.

by Charlie Dirty Bird on Jul 18, 2011 12:54 PM EDT reply actions

Resigning Justin Blalock

by Mosugo on Jul 18, 2011 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

yep!

A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice.

by FrozenFinger on Jul 18, 2011 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Resigning FAs

I think they would be the first priority. Releasing some players will probably be next.

by GritsBlitz on Jul 18, 2011 3:48 PM EDT reply actions

resign all our free agents

and sign everyone else’s free agents that we want, if they’re better than what we have at the position now, then we sign them!!
NIce dream world I’m living in!

Due to the lockout, I think this season will resemble last year a lot. I think the teams that were good last year will be good again this year. there will be a suprise team or 2, but I think this year kinda follows last years script, except of course the team that wins the SB will be different, since our Falcons will finally take that last final step and bring home the Lombardi trophy to the dirty dirty!!

by ATLsince1972 on Jul 19, 2011 7:42 AM EDT reply actions

I still say we sign Nnamdi

That is our biggest FA splash this year, if you dont count the Julio thing, which a lot of people are starting to say that the JJ move WAS our big splash move this season. I hope not, we need one more playmaker on that defense in order to stand a chance against GB,NO and Philly – at least those 3, not counting NY and the cowgirls. This year could be a season where a lot of teams get things together and are hard to beat at home, so not to many 13-3 or 14-2 records this year, maybe a 12-4 though. Hopefully our only losses this season will come against AFC teams and our strength of schedule opponents. That way , if it comes down to tiebreakers for the playoffs or division, we should win, since our HTH, divisional, and versus the NFC records should be really good.

PLEASE SIGN NNAMDI!!!!

by ATLsince1972 on Jul 19, 2011 7:49 AM EDT reply actions