The Falcoholic Draft Preview Discussion

by Dave Choate on Apr 27, 2011 5:30 PM EDT in Editorial

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Tomorrow brings on gilded wings the NFL Draft, which is sort of like Christmas for the hardcore football fan.

Dreams come true and are crushed on these august three days, beginning with the pomp and circumstance of the first round. The Falcons have drafted well over the last three seasons, in my humble opinion, so I retain my youthful optimism as I prepare for an evening of television, beer and nachos.

After the jump, you'll find a haphazard list of things you should look for in tomorrow night's draft. Be sure to check back here at 7:30 p.m. sharp as we roll out our live coverage, including my famous—I believe in a very loose definition of famous, in case you were wondering—live blog of the event.

After the jump, find a list of things worth discussing.

Positions of need. My list goes defensive end, wide receiver, offensive line, running back, tight end, linebacker and safety, in that order. What's yours?
Top three picks. At this point, I have the Falcons down for DE Justin Houston in the first, WR Jerrel Jernigan in the second and RB Alex Green in the third. That's based entirely on guesswork and the fact that the team has been so focused on obtaining help at pass rusher and on the offensive side of the ball. Share yours in the comments.
Will the Falcons make a trade? My money's on yes. The team tends to move around a bit, even if it's in the late rounds, but this is a year where I can see them changing direction in the first or second day. Worth watching, to say the least.

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Falcon's draft

The Falcon’s first pick will be Kyle Rudolph. I will be the first person to say “I told you so” to everyone! Haha.

In all seriousness, I think the Falcons trade their first for a second rounder and early third (ideally with Tennessee, although Minnesota is also an option). With these picks, the Falcons select:
2a. Kyle Rudolph
2b. Sam Acho
3a. Demarco Murray
3b. Mark Herzlich

Rudolph is the best player at a position of need when we pick in the second round. Acho is one of the most Falconly players in this draft and I think we grab him. Murray adds the explosive element we need out of the backfield. Herzlich adds the character the Falcons value so dearly as well as potential as he was considered a first-round lock before his battle with cancer, and if he is able to fully recover, will be a monster for us as a strong-side OLB. After these needs are addressed we can start looking at potential projects. Guys on my radar include Demarcus Love whose stock has tumbled and could play guard or right tackle, maybe a guy like Willie Smith from East Carolina; Greg Little, Cecil Shorts III, Ricardo Lockette; Pat Devlin to be a potential steal as a backup QB.

Free Agents: Mario Fannin has a lot to learn but a guy who is 5"10 230 and runs a sub 4.4 40 makes me drool. Worth bringing in I think. Vidal Hazelton wants to be here. I say with his talent, bring him in. Matt Bosher could punt or kick. I think he would be worth a look.

I didn’t address the secondary here, but I’m not sold that we need much help there. Maybe a safety? Basically, I think we are just a few parts away from being a championship contender. We go big early in the draft, then take projects later.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Apr 27, 2011 6:17 PM EDT reply actions

3b. Mark Herzlich – I’ll be floored if he comes off the board in the 3rd round. Everything else is spectacular! Herzlich should be there in the 4th or 5th rounds imo BUT if we have to take him in the 3rd to get him, then grats Falcons!

by Caviarhound on Apr 27, 2011 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

bah, meant this for a reply.

by Caviarhound on Apr 27, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll echo Caviar here, I'd be amazed if Herzlich goes that early

Still, nice list.

by Dave Choate on Apr 27, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Like I have stated earlier

Herzlich will be at the draft. There is no doubt he will not hear his name on the first day. But maybe he will be there to hear his name called on day two. I know the projections don’t have him going that high, but I have a weird suspicion people might know something we do not. I doubt he will sit there until day three waiting for his name to be called. Regardless, it is an amazing story and he is a truly high character guy. I would be proud to see him in the red and black. I hope FO can make it happen

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Apr 27, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I would take him in the third no question.

I think he’s got Pro Bowl potential, and he just has an aura about him. Whoever gets him, and I hope it’s us, is going to get a terrific player who will lead a defense and make plays. He’d be our Nitschke.

by orion12 on Apr 27, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s how I felt about Myron Rolle last year.

by Caviarhound on Apr 27, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Very possible But..

Dont see Herzlich in the 3rd either….. If we dont trade up in th first, and dont take a player at 27, We back into the second round. my list there(in the 2nd) would be:

2a: Sam Acho/ Brooks Reed
2b: Jerrel Jerrigan

But being such an odd year anything is possible. Nothing would suprise me but could be disapointed… I HATE that feeling!!!!

by Winged Preditor on Apr 27, 2011 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

I have three mock drafts

(1) The list of players I’d like the Falcons to take now
(2) The list of players I’ll have wanted the Falcons to have taken at the start of the season
(3) The list of players I’ll have wanted the Falcons to have taken at the end of the season

I’ll leave it up to Dimitroff to use the unholy football prognostication magic he learned in Foxboro to make all three lists the same.

by Leon07 on Apr 27, 2011 7:49 PM EDT reply actions

If you leave it up to him

you’re nuts!

by FrozenFinger on Apr 27, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

It was a tough decision but I think the kid has earned the job

Despite the fact that his head looks like he’s wearing a hedgehog as a hat.

by Leon07 on Apr 27, 2011 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Trade Down out of #27 to #35 and add pick #66

DE Sam Acho
RB Demarco Murray
WR Leonard Hankerson
OT Marcus Gilbert
CB Rashard Carmichael
TE Julius Thomas
OT Byron Stingily
ILB Mike Mohamed
CB Justin Rogers
OLB J.T. Thomas

by GTbacker on Apr 27, 2011 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

Yes Justin Rogers you are the only other guy besides me to bring him up on this board.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Apr 27, 2011 9:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

great minds think alike

btw go check out carmichael, Stingily, and JT thomas because they have gainormous potential, especially Stingily he is a more athletic Dahl clone.

by GTbacker on Apr 27, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Mikey Mo!

Love this kid

by TheAreopagite on Apr 27, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Demarco Murray?

don’t really see that one coming, other than that I like all of them

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.

by TurnerTheBurner on Apr 28, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

So you're saying Hankerson at #66?

If he’s still there, I’d be screaming at the TV for him (actually, I’ll probably be screaming for him at #59).

Really really like almost all of these 10 guys.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Apr 28, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

switch the murray and hankerson picks

by GTbacker on Apr 28, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Wish I could join the discussion but this lockout has almost "meh'd" the whole thing for me

I almost forgot it was tomorrow.

by aces666high on Apr 27, 2011 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

Ya same

But technically there is no more lockout. Even though the de facto NFL year still won’t start until they negotiate a new CBA, which will take a while.

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.

by TurnerTheBurner on Apr 28, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I've only moderately followed the Falcon's actions leading up to the draft, so don't criticize me too bad on these:

I’m operating under three situations, “a” “b” and “c”

1a- WR Torrey Smith
1b- DE Justin Houston
1c- TE Kyle Rudolph

2a- DE Allen Bailey
2b- WR Titus Young
2c- WR Jerral Jernigan

3a- LB Mason Foster
3b- TE Jordan Cameron
3c- DE Greg Romeus

You can see where I’m going with this. I think it’s pretty obvious what our needs are at this point. Regardless who we pick, we need:
1- An explosive wideout
2- A pass rushing DE to eventually succeed ’ole Abe
3- A LB to succeed/replace Mo Pete
4- A TE to eventually succeed Tony G
5- A late round CB (for depth)
6- A late round speedy RB (backup)
7- A late round OL (for depth)
8- A #3 QB, one preferably with some speed (for depth/use in trick plays)

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.

by TurnerTheBurner on Apr 28, 2011 12:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Kerry Meier

I think he can be used for trick plays. The guy plays WR and can definitely outrun some LBs and D-Lineman, and maybe some Pittsburgh “gadget” plays if MM is creative enough.

by ndnpride8806 on Apr 28, 2011 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I doubt it but

If the Falcons trade up to grab Julio Jones or AJ Green, they better show up to play because the Falcons would basically be giving up their 2011 or 2012 draft to get this guy.

I hope a guy like Kerrigan or Clayborn falls to us if we stay at 27. Or else, trade down.

by ndnpride8806 on Apr 28, 2011 2:14 AM EDT reply actions

Atlanta draft

Personally I think we might very well trade down into the start of the second round, this however solely depends on who is still up for grabs at the 27th. spot. I feel confident that Mike and Thomas will choose a good d-line prospect if avaible at 27, otherwise they trade down. The reason for this is that i don’t believe they are looking for another roddy white at wr. They will be looking for at speedster, and there are plenty of these avaible in the second round. I think they will trade the 27th for a second & third round pick. In the second round we select a wr and de. In the third round im not sure, but i would love to see Mark Herzlich become a falcon. He is as dedicated a player as they come, and believe that he could possible become a steal in the third round.
Other than that remember that the falcons draft for needs so if the right guy is not avaible at 27th. I beleive they will trade down to get more value.
Keep up the good discussion, always interesting to hear what other Falcon fans think we’ll do:-)

by Sune Bjørn Andersen on Apr 28, 2011 4:31 AM EDT reply actions

Question #3 first - YES

I still seriously doubt the rumors of moving into the Top 10, but I’m almost certain they’ll make a trade eventually, and wouldn’t be suprised at all if there was a trade tonight – up OR down.

Q1 – really like your positions of need & order. You didn’t list CB, and I think we will definitely take one, but I don’t think we need one early in the draft. I think DE and WR are 1a & 1b, and everything else is well behind. I could get behind an O-Lineman (or maybe even CB Brandon Harris) in the First Round, but only if it played out that DE/WR was a terrible value there. I think RB/LB are both big “needs”, but I don’t want either one drafted before the 3rd Round (unless maybe a guy is BAP by a huuuge margin).

Q2 – Top 3 picks:
1-27. DE Justin Houston; also OK with Clayborn, Carimi/Sherrod, or maybe even Brandon Harris. All bets are off if Castonzo somehow slid.
2-59. WR Jerrel Jernigan; I’d actually be praying that Torrey Smith (highly unlikely) or Leonard Hankerson (maybe?) slid near us (I’d be all over a trade-up to 45-50 for either of these guys over Jernigan). Allen Bailey if the team doesn’t go DE in the First.
3-91. OT Marcus Gilbert, I guess. Lots of possiblities, though – Quan Sturdivant (one of my favorites, but don’t think he’d be there), Colin McCarthy, Mason Foster, Marcus Gilchrist, or even Virgil Green.

I really, really like Alex Green… but I think he might make it to #124 (Fourth Rounder).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Apr 28, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I really like your pics

Especially Hankerson. I think he’s going to be good.

by mwalex on Apr 28, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I love Hankerson - I wouldn't mind if they just took him at #27 (even though it would be considered a "reach")...

…and went back with Bailey (or maybe Acho) at #59.

Basically, I would like Hankerson/Bailey more than Houston/Jernigan.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Apr 28, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

like your picks

and I’m in love with Castonzo too. I’m would be hesitant to take Houston w/ his history we now know of, but would also trust TD if he though Houston worthy. I’d also rather have Hankerson than Jernigan, and think there’s a good chance we might not even have to move up in the 2nd to get him.

by KMarch on Apr 28, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Ayers

Several mocks have us taking Ayers at 27th pick. He’s listed as a tweener DE/OLB but obviously is most suited for OLB in the falcons system. Personally I’m not really sold on him. Anyone else with thoughts or info?

by FalcNole on Apr 28, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

From CBS Sports

Mock Draft Positions
Rang Reuter Prisco Judge
21 (KC) 17 (NE) 23 (PHI) 32 (GB)

Only one person had Ayers available at 27 or later.

“While Ayers is athletic, his 4.81 40 at the combine showed he might lack the speed to be an edge-rushing linebacker and chase speed backs to the sideline. He lacks great instincts, but he does maintain gap discipline and enjoys the physical nature of playing linebacker, so he could ultimately prove to be a good fit inside in a 3-4.” – Jeff Reynolds, The Sports Xchange

That analysis infers he’d best be suited as LB. With that slow 40 maybe ILB would be the best fit. Definately doesn’t sound like the DE ATL needs.

by mwalex on Apr 28, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm with you

I just don’t see it, and I think a lot of this is people not recognizing scheme fit, and instead matching a player with an approximate place in the draft where he should be taken.

by KMarch on Apr 28, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions