An Exercise In Futility: Projecting Stats For Falcons Receivers

by Dave Choate on Mar 26, 2011 9:00 PM EDT in Editorial

It's a sleepy Saturday evening, so I figured now would be a good time to get your collective brains in gear with a stats-based discussion.

Oh, I won't be providing you any stats. Who do you think I am, James Rael? Don't be foolish.

What I am interested to see is what kind of numbers (receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per reception, any advanced metric you like) the Falcons receiving corps is going to post in 2011. This not only will give us a glimpse into how you expect the depth chart to shake out, but how well you expect the passing game to gear up. Tight ends are included in this, by the way, so feel free to list Tony Gonzalez alongside Roddy White.

Consider it a community exercise in projection. Hope you enjoy it.

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This one is easy.

Yards TD Yards per reception
R.white 1000 20 100.00
H. Douglas 1000 20 100.00
K. Meier 1000 20 100.00
T. Gonzales 1000 20 100.00
M. Ryan 1500 20 100.00 (my sleeper)

by CollegePark4Life on Mar 26, 2011 10:13 PM EDT reply actions

Your math is questionable

But I agree wholeheartedly. I’m gonna add Turner in for about 500 receiving yards too just for the heck of it. Matty Ice destroys all passing records next season

If peeing your pants is the coolest, consider me Miles Davis

by BigSkee on Mar 27, 2011 12:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Math?!

How dare you use such language on the holiest of boards!

by CollegePark4Life on Mar 27, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Assuming no injury

Roddy…1200 yards
Jenkins..700 yards
Gonzalez…700 yards
Douglas…450 yards
Meier…250 yards
2 RB…400 yards
other (peele, turner, etc.)…400 yards

The question is, how many catches, etc. to get there. I’m hoping for higher YPC and YPA numbers. I’d like to see 7.5 ypa from Ryan, and we’ll see higher YPC figures for the rest of the guys. I think a deep threat will help that, even if he doesn’t get a lot of yards.

If they don’t start throwing deep a little more, reduce all the above numbers by 15%.

by takeitdown on Mar 27, 2011 12:17 AM EDT reply actions

so, that leaves Ryan with just over 4000 yards passing

by takeitdown on Mar 27, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I think he might do it this year.

With all this explosion talk I’m thinking the reigns come off. I believe we see a few more picks but a lot more passing TD’s. Our offense can be daunting and it’s something I’m proud of. Our D still needs teaking.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Mar 27, 2011 2:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And 1500 receiving yards.

After a year like this, franchise QB will be an understatement.

by CollegePark4Life on Mar 27, 2011 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't see how

HD or KM are going to make much of a contribution to the offense. We need a receiver with speed who can catch unlike HD who is all speed and no hands. KM is the opposite of HD catches almost everything but not very fast. Also need to move MJ to slot where he would be a great improvement. We need to look at WR early in the draft and grab a DE from free agency.

by Pharoah_Rah on Mar 27, 2011 4:50 AM EDT reply actions

All this talk about HD not being able to catch is pretty funny

He had an off year last year because he sat out a full season and now he can’t catch. In 2008 he had a catch rate of 57.1%. For 2010, that was on the same level as Miles Auston (58%), MJ12, PGarcon (57.6%), CJohnson (56.2%), MCrabtree (54.5%) and Simms-Walker (53.8%).

Since he had an off season guess ATL should cut him.

by mwalex on Mar 27, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree 100% with mwalex

The guy blew out his knee and then busted his butt to get back so he can play for us. Wait till next year…you’ll see how ridiculously good HD really is.

2008 we all loved him.

by ndnpride8806 on Mar 28, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

my guess

Roddy: 90-1250-8
Jenks: 55-675-2
Tony G: 65-625-6
WR3: 400 yards (HD/draftee)
RB2: 300 yards (Snelling/draftee)
WR4: 150 yards (Meier/draftee)
everybody else: 100 yards or less (about 400 total)

Somebody (Jenkins plus either HD or a draft pick) is really going to have to pick it up if Tony G can’t slow down his decline (which would look more like 60-550 if it continues).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Mar 28, 2011 4:36 PM EDT reply actions