I enjoyed reading Common Sense: Why Not Trade Up? and think the author made some excellent points.
I decided to write about a contrasting option....
according to draft trade charts, (draft trade chart = http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670 )
The Falcons 27th is worth 680 points, while The Buffalo Bill's #34 (2nd pick in the second round) is worth 560 points. They would need to come up with 120 additional points to make the trade even.
If they were to exchange their 3rd round pick with ours:
Buffalo's 3rd round pick #68 (250 points) Falcons 3rd round #91 (136 points) = 114 point difference (nearly equal)
Why would we trade out of the 1st round, and not even get an extra pick? Because we only traded DOWN 7 spots.
But we traded UP 23 picks!! How? Because its worth more points to move up in the early rounds vs the later ones.
Why would Buffalo trade up? They are very likely to spend the 3rd pick in the draft on one of the elite talents such as Patrick Peterson, Nick Fairley, Marcel Dareus, ect. instead of a QB, then trade back up into the 2nd round for a QB that slips, such of Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, ect
Perhaps its NOT buffalo, maybe its Arizona, the Bengals, or one of the other teams with high 2nd round picks.
So, is it worth trading out of the 1st round for an earlier 3rd round pick? Perhaps??
Anyone who has followed the draft, and attempted to do a mock draft, has found anywhere from 5 to 10 of their projected 1st round picks fall into the 2nd round. This year it is likely at least one of LT Derrek Sherrod, DE Justin Houstin, DE Adrian Clayborn, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Aaron Williams, Jon Baldwin, Kyle Rudolph, or DE Allen Bailey will fall into the 2nd round (where we would have the 2nd pick) So, we would still be getting 1st round talent.
Armed with the 68th pick (instead of # 91), in addition to our 59th pick, we are much more likely to be able to get two of the following:
a WRs such as Leonard Hankerson, Randall Cobb, Jerrell Jernigan, Titus Young, and a RB like Ryan Williams, Kendall Hunter, or DeMarco Murray.
In closing, I have the following mock for our 1st four rounds:
#59 = WR Jerrel Jernigan http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2011/3/4/2030244/jerrel-jernigan-wr-5-foot-9-185-pounds
# 68 = RB Kendall Hunter http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2011/3/9/2041030/rb-kendall-hunter-oklahoma-state-5-8-197
# 123 = TE Jordan Cameron http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2011/2/27/2017956/draft-prospect-jordan-cameron-te-usc
#155 = DT Joseph Barksdale http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2011/3/24/2067939/joseph-barksdale-ot-lsu-65-315-lbs
2011 draft order: http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftorder2011.php
draft trade chart = http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670